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Why did NATO choose to rely on Russian gas and oil?

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ironpony
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13 Mar 2022, 9:39 am

r00tb33r wrote:
Last I heard the banks that handle energy transactions have not been cut from account clearing/ messaging systems and the gas is rushing to the stove burners of German customers like it always did. What you see and hear is political posturing, the sanctions haven't hit the real income yet, if they ever will.


But if the sanctions haven't hit yet, why did gas prices go up a huge spike just right after they said they would sanction? Too good to be a coincidence?



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13 Mar 2022, 5:52 pm

ironpony wrote:
r00tb33r wrote:
Last I heard the banks that handle energy transactions have not been cut from account clearing/ messaging systems and the gas is rushing to the stove burners of German customers like it always did. What you see and hear is political posturing, the sanctions haven't hit the real income yet, if they ever will.


But if the sanctions haven't hit yet, why did gas prices go up a huge spike just right after they said they would sanction? Too good to be a coincidence?


The sanctions are hurting pootin.
He is asking for help from his buddy xi.

Quote:
Reports: Russia has been asking China for military aid, equipment

Sullivan wrote on social media that the administration was “communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences” for any Chinese efforts to assist Russia in evading the economic sanctions that have been imposed by Western allies.

“We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “In terms of the specific means of doing that, again, I’m not going to lay all of that out in public, but we will communicate that privately to China, as we have already done and will continue to do.”

Earlier, Sullivan told CNN that a scenario in which China provides support to Russia was “a concern.”

“We also are watching closely to see the extent to which China actually does provide any form of support, material support or economic support, to Russia. It is a concern of ours,” Sullivan said. “And we have communicated to Beijing that we will not stand by and allow any country to compensate Russia for its losses from the economic sanctions.”

https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/rep ... TGJ5KWZZE/



magz
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14 Mar 2022, 3:59 am

The sanctions are aimed at making Russia unable to continue the war for lack of funds and new equipment. Ammo costs quite a lot.
Sanctions always hit both sides, though. Making a plan to keep Europe (especially Germany and Bulgaria) function without Russian natural gas is not something one can do overnight.
Yep, it was their fault they agreed to be energetically dependent on an agressive state. Now they are trying to find a way out of it.
Hopefully, some moves towards independence on fossil fuels in general will speed up as a part of this.


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Pepe
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14 Mar 2022, 4:16 am

I hear pootin's officers haven't been paid for months.
Shades of the collapse of the Soviet Union.



r00tb33r
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14 Mar 2022, 7:42 am

Pepe wrote:
Earlier, Sullivan told CNN that a scenario in which China provides support to Russia was “a concern.”

Seen posts, but it's not clear what the nature of that assistance is. They're certainly not out of bullets. Maybe they want to call in the warranty on those counterfeit Michelins their trucks are driving on...?
China has a lot of different resources. Those could just as well be cyber resources, our even backbone ISP routing.
[EDIT]
Oh. I know. China has airtight internet censorship. This is the exact solution that Putin needs. He has an information and dissent problem. China has the solutions.


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ironpony
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14 Mar 2022, 9:39 am

magz wrote:
The sanctions are aimed at making Russia unable to continue the war for lack of funds and new equipment. Ammo costs quite a lot.
Sanctions always hit both sides, though. Making a plan to keep Europe (especially Germany and Bulgaria) function without Russian natural gas is not something one can do overnight.
Yep, it was their fault they agreed to be energetically dependent on an agressive state. Now they are trying to find a way out of it.
Hopefully, some moves towards independence on fossil fuels in general will speed up as a part of this.


But doesn't Russia already have a lot of equipment and funds and it's going to be a long time, before they run out and therefore they can still keep the war going for a long time? All of Ukraine could be demised by this point, couldn't it?

Also, if the rest of the world and the US wants to ship equipment to Ukraine to help them, wouldn't it be more effective to ship ICBMs to the Ukraine, because Putin is not going to want to risk nuclear war with another country that can fire nukes back therefore? Make Ukraine a nuclear superpower, and Russia is not going to want to mess with that?



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14 Mar 2022, 9:46 am

ironpony wrote:
r00tb33r wrote:
Last I heard the banks that handle energy transactions have not been cut from account clearing/ messaging systems and the gas is rushing to the stove burners of German customers like it always did. What you see and hear is political posturing, the sanctions haven't hit the real income yet, if they ever will.


But if the sanctions haven't hit yet, why did gas prices go up a huge spike just right after they said they would sanction? Too good to be a coincidence?


You don't think it could just be price gouging? :scratch:


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ironpony
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14 Mar 2022, 9:55 am

Well don't we already still have Russian gas left that we can still use before we run out and have to buy the more costly gas? I find it strange that the Russian gas ran out so fast it seems, unless we are on a weekly shipping deal with them and run out every week, or what's the deal there?



magz
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14 Mar 2022, 9:57 am

ironpony wrote:
But doesn't Russia already have a lot of equipment and funds and it's going to be a long time, before they run out and therefore they can still keep the war going for a long time? All of Ukraine could be demised by this point, couldn't it?
Based on what can be seen in Ukraine - no, Russian resources are quite limited. Additionally, some of their resources (international holdings) are frozen by the sanctions.
Russia is not self-sufficient at all. All the world right now is very inter-wined economically and being cut off this network hurts. Russia gets money mainly from selling oil and gas, while they import technology - car, car parts, computers, phones, parts. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus
You can't make more rockets without chips and you can't send more troops without money.

ironpony wrote:
Also, if the rest of the world and the US wants to ship equipment to Ukraine to help them, wouldn't it be more effective to ship ICBMs to the Ukraine, because Putin is not going to want to risk nuclear war with another country that can fire nukes back therefore? Make Ukraine a nuclear superpower, and Russia is not going to want to mess with that?
The possible side effect is nuclear holocaust, which we would prefer to avoid.


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14 Mar 2022, 10:00 am

magz wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Also, if the rest of the world and the US wants to ship equipment to Ukraine to help them, wouldn't it be more effective to ship ICBMs to the Ukraine, because Putin is not going to want to risk nuclear war with another country that can fire nukes back therefore? Make Ukraine a nuclear superpower, and Russia is not going to want to mess with that?
The possible side effect is nuclear holocaust, which we would prefer to avoid.
Yes . . . after Russian troops capture the American-made ICBMs and turn them against us.



magz
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14 Mar 2022, 10:02 am

BTW, ICBM is an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile.
Shipping it to a country neighbouring the target would not really make sense.

I know, it's a technicality.


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14 Mar 2022, 10:03 am

ironpony wrote:
Well don't we already still have Russian gas left that we can still use before we run out and have to buy the more costly gas? I find it strange that the Russian gas ran out so fast it seems, unless we are on a weekly shipping deal with them and run out every week, or what's the deal there?


It didn't run out yet, the companies are just charging more because no one will stop them. That's what price gouging is. In theory a windfall tax could be applied but I wouldn't count on it.


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14 Mar 2022, 10:04 am

funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Well don't we already still have Russian gas left that we can still use before we run out and have to buy the more costly gas? I find it strange that the Russian gas ran out so fast it seems, unless we are on a weekly shipping deal with them and run out every week, or what's the deal there?
It didn't run out yet, the companies are just charging more because no one will stop them.
Companies owned by billionaire Republican oligarchs.



ironpony
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14 Mar 2022, 12:24 pm

Fnord wrote:
magz wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Also, if the rest of the world and the US wants to ship equipment to Ukraine to help them, wouldn't it be more effective to ship ICBMs to the Ukraine, because Putin is not going to want to risk nuclear war with another country that can fire nukes back therefore? Make Ukraine a nuclear superpower, and Russia is not going to want to mess with that?
The possible side effect is nuclear holocaust, which we would prefer to avoid.
Yes . . . after Russian troops capture the American-made ICBMs and turn them against us.


That's true. Could the US ship the Ukraine the next most powerful weapons secondary to nuclear?



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14 Mar 2022, 12:25 pm

Fnord wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Well don't we already still have Russian gas left that we can still use before we run out and have to buy the more costly gas? I find it strange that the Russian gas ran out so fast it seems, unless we are on a weekly shipping deal with them and run out every week, or what's the deal there?
It didn't run out yet, the companies are just charging more because no one will stop them.
Companies owned by billionaire Republican oligarchs.


But Biden said in a press conference recently that it was Russia's fault that gas prices went up recently when he was asked the question.



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14 Mar 2022, 4:33 pm

A nuclear deterrent requires your opponent to be convinced that you are guaranteed to be able to fire a second strike that would be devastating to them.

Most countries achieve this through a nuclear triad: land-launched missiles, strategic bombers, and nuclear submarines. Submarines are the key: even if Russia managed to drop so many nukes on the UK that the government and military were effectively destroyed, and no missiles or bombers could be launched, there are still undetectable submarines with unknown orders who could hit major Russia cities from anywhere in the ocean.

Ukraine’s only access to the ocean is via the Bosphorus, which is currently closed to military traffic. So even if there was a spare set of nuclear submarines lying around (there isn’t), it wouldn’t be possible to get them to Ukraine.

Next to nuclear weapons, the most powerful weapons that the US has access to are the GBU-43/B MOAB, with “MOAB” standing for “Mother of All Bombs”. Trump used one against ISIS. The US has another 14. Frankly 14 is nothing compared to the Russian nuclear arsenal, and the MOAB is about as powerful as the *least* powerful nukes. Russia also has thermobaric weapons which are more powerful than the MOAB. Giving MOABs to Ukraine would potentially encourage Russia to use thermobarics and other indiscriminate weapons.