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Pepe
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30 Apr 2022, 6:53 am

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China’s Economy Is FAILING

Apr 25, 2022

The Chinese Communist Party released GDP data for the first quarter of 2022 and things aren't looking good, even by China's own numbers. But the situation is actually way worse because the CCP chronically manipulates its numbers to make China's economy look better than it is. In this episode of China Uncensored, we look at what's behind the low growth numbers, global growth forecasts, and how the US economy factors into China's GDP data.




SkinnedWolf
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30 Apr 2022, 10:06 am

You have chosen a source of information whose history is very unreliable. Maybe you'll want to check its funding background.
Not that it doesn't provide any real information, but it is as unbiased in its tendencies as the CCP's own propaganda.


I'm not that familiar with economics. The sensational-sounding issues mentioned in this video are clichés, at least IMO.

1) The CCP is accustomed to “adjusting” important data. True, and at the same time not a secret on the Chinese Internet. For some data that is easy to find the original data, we will estimate the true value by ourselves.
2) The CCP is accustomed to giving low expectations for economic growth to prevent unfulfilled goals. True. Ditto, not a secret.
3) Growth rate slowed. True. Public data shows that China's CDP growth rate has been gradually declining since 2010. The central government has made a series of plans for this. This is a global problem. No country can maintain a long-term high growth rate. The pandemic has accelerated this process. The CCP’s actual propaganda caliber is: Don’t fall more than other countries in the pandemic.
The events in Shanghai will undoubtedly further deteriorate the Chinese and global economies.
Various financial media in China have been chanting bad news in recent years and claiming that a "collapse" is coming, and a few scholars who are optimistic about the economy will be besieged.

I am not an expert on economic issues, and do not give personal forecasts for aggregate trends. But what is clear is that China's domestic spending power has deteriorated dramatically, a problem that the central and local governments have been planning to address for more than a decade.
This is partly due to the labor environment, which may be able to improve in the short term. But real estate is an unresolved sword of Damocles, and not addressing it will result in spending power failing to improve. Touching it hastily could have more tragic consequences than Japan had in the first place. So the issue is still on hold.
In the context of anti-globalization, this problem will become more and more dazzling.


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Double Retired
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30 Apr 2022, 10:21 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
You have chosen a source of information whose history is very unreliable.
It seems odd to me that in the lower left corner it encourages me to watch it on YouTube but the post is actually linking into "youtu.be". Is that some reputable clone of YouTube?


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SkinnedWolf
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30 Apr 2022, 10:31 am

Double Retired wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
You have chosen a source of information whose history is very unreliable.
It seems odd to me that in the lower left corner it encourages me to watch it on YouTube but the post is actually linking into "youtu.be". Is that some reputable clone of YouTube?

I visited youtube from google, same result.
Some kind of weird display bug?


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Mikah
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30 Apr 2022, 2:43 pm

"China's economy is in serious trouble"

Heh. We're all in serious trouble. The whole global economy is a debt-soaked house of cards. A big one falls, everyone follows. China is, however, better placed to rebuild afterwards. Better to be export-dependent than import-dependent - you have the infrastructure in place to keep producing things.

Double Retired wrote:
It seems odd to me that in the lower left corner it encourages me to watch it on YouTube but the post is actually linking into "youtu.be". Is that some reputable clone of YouTube?


It's a shortened version of the youtube domain name, owned by youtube and nothing suspicious.


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cyberdad
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30 Apr 2022, 11:39 pm

If the Chinese economy is going through a downturn then the CCP will manage the centrally run economy in accordance. This is probably the one time when you a centrally run government comes in handy to "tighten the belt". But for local people it probably spells a period of hardship.

I am also sure the OP is aware how much Australia relies on China so when China sneezes Australia will likely catch the same cold,



SkinnedWolf
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01 May 2022, 12:03 am

cyberdad wrote:
I am also sure the OP is aware how much Australia relies on China so when China sneezes Australia will likely catch the same cold,

Both China and Australia are already working to wean themselves off the other.
Even more worthy of consideration is the global impact of the United States and the economic risks it has been warned about — seems to be a more intense storm than the one limited to China..


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Pepe
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01 May 2022, 12:16 am

cyberdad wrote:
If the Chinese economy is going through a downturn then the CCP will manage the centrally run economy in accordance. This is probably the one time when you a centrally run government comes in handy to "tighten the belt". But for local people it probably spells a period of hardship.

I am also sure the OP is aware how much Australia relies on China so when China sneezes Australia will likely catch the same cold,


True, but we weathered a previous Chinese "Tiger Recession" brilliantly.
Call it good luck, if you like.
We may get lucky again. <shrug>

BTW, Australia's economic recovery from the pandemic is amongst the best in the world. ;)



Pepe
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01 May 2022, 12:19 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
I am also sure the OP is aware how much Australia relies on China so when China sneezes Australia will likely catch the same cold,

Both China and Australia are already working to wean themselves off the other.
Even more worthy of consideration is the global impact of the United States and the economic risks it has been warned about — seems to be a more intense storm than the one limited to China..


Yep.
Australia has managed a trade deal with India to offset the problems with the CCP.
It has taken many years to achieve, but it finally was "consummated". ;)



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01 May 2022, 12:49 am

Pepe wrote:
BTW, Australia's economic recovery from the pandemic is amongst the best in the world. ;)

Viruses are not so convenient to cross the ocean, but capital can.

Pepe wrote:
True, but we weathered a previous Chinese "Tiger Recession" brilliantly.
Call it good luck, if you like.
We may get lucky again. <shrug>

I'm not sure which crisis "Tiger Recession" refers to.
If you are referring to the 2008 financial crisis, Australia's economic security is related to its high linkage to China - which was less affected by the US economy at the time.
Now you lose two conditions.


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Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.

You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
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Pepe
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01 May 2022, 1:00 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
Pepe wrote:
BTW, Australia's economic recovery from the pandemic is amongst the best in the world. ;)

Viruses are not so convenient to cross the ocean, but capital can.

Pepe wrote:
True, but we weathered a previous Chinese "Tiger Recession" brilliantly.
Call it good luck, if you like.
We may get lucky again. <shrug>

I'm not sure which crisis "Tiger Recession" refers to.
If you are referring to the 2008 financial crisis, Australia's economy is related to its high linkage to China - which was less affected by the US economy at the time.
Now you lose two conditions.


I believe Kevin Rudd was prime minister during the time I am talking about, around 2009. I think Australia avoided a technical recession, at that time.

Edit: Actually, it might have been before that. Not sure.



cyberdad
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01 May 2022, 1:52 am

Pepe wrote:
I believe Kevin Rudd was prime minister during the time I am talking about, around 2009. I think Australia avoided a technical recession, at that time.

Edit: Actually, it might have been before that. Not sure.


Well blow me down! you giving O'l Rudd credit for managing the recession 8O



Pepe
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01 May 2022, 2:08 am

cyberdad wrote:
Pepe wrote:
I believe Kevin Rudd was prime minister during the time I am talking about, around 2009. I think Australia avoided a technical recession, at that time.

Edit: Actually, it might have been before that. Not sure.


Well blow me down! you giving O'l Rudd credit for managing the recession 8O



Australia did well *despite* Rudderless Rudd being at the tiller.
Better. ;)



cyberdad
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01 May 2022, 2:11 am

Pepe wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
Pepe wrote:
I believe Kevin Rudd was prime minister during the time I am talking about, around 2009. I think Australia avoided a technical recession, at that time.

Edit: Actually, it might have been before that. Not sure.


Well blow me down! you giving O'l Rudd credit for managing the recession 8O



Australia did well *despite* Rudderless Rudd being at the tiller.
Better. ;)


yes, you had me going there for a minute.



Pepe
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01 May 2022, 2:29 am

cyberdad wrote:
Pepe wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
Pepe wrote:
I believe Kevin Rudd was prime minister during the time I am talking about, around 2009. I think Australia avoided a technical recession, at that time.

Edit: Actually, it might have been before that. Not sure.


Well blow me down! you giving O'l Rudd credit for managing the recession 8O



Australia did well *despite* Rudderless Rudd being at the tiller.
Better. ;)


yes, you had me going there for a minute.


And again, all is as it should be, and forevermore. Amen. 8)

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kitesandtrainsandcats
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01 May 2022, 2:59 am

Double Retired wrote:
to watch it on YouTube but the post is actually linking into "youtu.be". Is that some reputable clone of YouTube?


No, that is not a "clone" of YouTube, it IS YouTube, and is quite common:

For instance:
look at URL for NASA's official NASA TV YouTube live stream, https://youtu.be/21X5lGlDOfg
and
look at URL for this from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, https://youtu.be/1Bn349KyGzE
and
look at URL from this on the US Navy's official YouTube, https://youtu.be/xznbVD6LKFU

:arrow: Stay tuned for Part 2


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Last edited by kitesandtrainsandcats on 01 May 2022, 3:22 am, edited 2 times in total.