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ASPartOfMe
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03 May 2022, 10:56 am

Trumpworld braces for ‘a couple of ugly nights’ in May

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The first big test of former President Donald Trump’s clout comes Tuesday in Ohio’s bitterly fought Senate primary, where J.D. Vance surged into the lead after winning Trump’s endorsement.

A Vance victory would remind his party that Trump is still king. But the acclaim will be fleeting.

The rest of May looks nowhere near as good for the former president, who has expended his political capital in a series of contests that are already laying bare the limits of his post-presidential influence on the GOP.

In a four-week stretch of primaries running from Nebraska and West Virginia to Idaho, Pennsylvania and Georgia, Trump-endorsed candidates are slogging through difficult races where the former president’s blessing hasn’t proved to be the rocket fuel some expected. In a few cases, his preferred candidates are running far behind.

His record in these contests is no small matter given his own past performance. In his only two appearances on a ballot, he lost the popular vote twice. On his watch as president, the GOP lost the House, Senate and the White House.

To continue in his role as his party’s apex politician — and to press his claim on the 2024 Republican nomination — Trump can’t afford a string of reminders that his defeats are starting to stack up, or that the party base is, on even limited occasions, willing to buck him.

“It’ll be a blow to his perceived power,” said John Thomas, a Republican strategist who works on House campaigns across the country. “He doesn’t single-handedly control the electorate unless he’s on the ballot. Is he still a very, very popular figure in the Republican Party? Absolutely, undeniably. But does he have the influence and weight in Republican primaries to be the decisive kingmaker? … Not definitively.”

Surveying the May primary calendar, one adviser to Trump said, “The president could have a couple of ugly nights.”

Even before polls close, the tightness of races Trump is engaged in is indicative of his limitations: His endorsements have not cleared primary fields. In both Ohio and Pennsylvania, opponents of Trump’s endorsed candidates are so comfortable crossing Trump that they are airing TV ads openly questioning Trump’s judgment in his endorsements.

“Trump made a mistake on this one,” says a character in one of the spots.

“President Trump is the most charismatic, popular figure in the GOP, and any association, affiliation with him can be beneficial,” said Darrell Scott, an Ohio pastor and Trump adviser.

What the May primaries are making clear, Scott said, is that “there’s only so much he can do.”

In North Carolina, Trump’s endorsed Senate candidate, Rep. Ted Budd, has a comfortable lead. So does Herschel Walker, Trump’s favored Senate candidate in Georgia. But the Senate races in Ohio and Pennsylvania aren’t sure bets, and it will be a grind for Trump beyond that.

In Nebraska, Charles Herbster, with whom Trump campaigned on Sunday, is in a three-way toss-up after being accused of sexually assaulting eight women. The Trump-endorsed candidate in a high-profile House race in West Virginia is teetering in a close race. In Idaho, Gov. Brad Little is polling more than 30 percentage points ahead of his Trump-endorsed primary opponent, while in Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp — one of Trump’s most well-worn punching bags — may not only beat Trump’s endorsed candidate, former Sen. David Perdue, but do so by a wide enough margin to avoid a runoff.

“Georgia’s the big one,” said Whit Ayres, the longtime Republican pollster. “Trump took on an incumbent Republican governor and recruited a recent incumbent Republican senator to challenge him. That is the biggest of the challenges where Trump has tried to force his will.”

He said, “If he’s able to take out an incumbent Republican governor, that’s a huge statement of his influence. But if he’s unable to take out an incumbent Republican governor with a recent incumbent senator, it’s a huge statement of his lack of influence on Republican voters.”

A mixed record in the primaries is something Trump can overcome. Despite his obsession with his win-loss record in the primaries, he will get a second chance to endorse — and campaign for — the party’s nominees in November. But because of his deeply polarizing nature, there are limits on the kinds of places where Trump’s support would be an asset in a general election.

Few politicians are as skillful as Trump at explaining away losses, whether in business or politics. And the party at large may benefit in November from a ticket that includes both Trumpist and more traditionalist candidates, inducing turnout from across factions of the GOP.

That dynamic is giving primary voters more choices than ever.

The fallout of the elections will not only factor in November, but set a mold for the party for a generation. Vance is only 37, Budd is 50 and Walker is 60 — all with decades of office-holding years ahead of them if they win.

By the end of the month, the picture will be clearer. But in the span of several weeks this month, Republicans in a fifth of the nation’s states will cast votes, representing red and blue states and nearly every region of the country.


As of now I still think of Trump as the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. The thing about the mid terms and Governor’s races is Trump is not on the ballot, other candidates are. There are also state and local factors. Trump is still the most popular Republican candidate.

Looking forward to 2024 Trump not getting the nomination may not at all mean the defeat of Trumpism. It could be the opposite. I do not envision the Liz Cheney wing coming back. You could get a Trumpism light nominee like Youngkin. It could be a smarter, less impulsive, less fragile version of Trump. DeSantis seems like that person at the moment but it could be Tucker Carlson or a dark horse. Remember none of these hopefuls have gone through the scrutiny of the nominating process. It could be the Never Trumpers may end up having to root for him to stay healthy and win the nomination. Depressing isn’t the word.


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Tim_Tex
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03 May 2022, 11:36 am

As much as I hate Trump, I want the candidates he endorsed (only in the swing states, though) to win their primaries.

My hope is that Dems vote in droves, and keep their congressional majorities. Then in '24, I hope Trump gets the nomination, the Dems vote in droves, and vote the GOP out of existence.

And the icing on the cake? I hope AOC runs and gets the Dem nomination. I want to see conservative heads explode because a young, educated woman of color just got elected president.


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ASPartOfMe
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03 May 2022, 11:43 am

Tim_Tex wrote:
As much as I hate Trump, I want the candidates he endorsed (only in the swing states, though) to win their primaries.

My hope is that Dems vote in droves, and keep their congressional majorities. Then in '24, I hope Trump gets the nomination, the Dems vote in droves, and vote the GOP out of existence.

And the icing on the cake? I hope AOC runs and gets the Dem nomination. I want to see conservative heads explode because a young, educated woman of color just got elected president.

I can’t see AOC winning. Socialism and wokeism have proven unpopular. Eric Adams won by running against wokeism in very blue NYC.


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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman