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SkinnedWolf
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24 May 2022, 4:41 am

magz wrote:
Global world is not just USA.

It is. So China is trying to trade with countries outside the US sphere of influence. But China's sea routes could easily be blocked because the South China Sea issue has not yet been resolved.
This is why there is Belt and Road Initiative. Trying to solve the traffic problem by land.

In the past, economic aggregates were growing, so a win-win situation was easy to achieve. But now that the economy is down, it can easily turn into a zero-sum game. This dynamic doesn't just happen between countries.

magz wrote:
Chip factories are so expensive that very little can afford them and they are made in places investors find controllable by them, with low risk of e.g. local governments behaving unpredictably and cutting the investors out.

My impression is that in China this is dominated by the state, especially the central government. One of the most important research institutes is right next door to my university, Beijing.
And private companies that conduct research and development receive funding from the central government.
Scientific research operates in different ways in socialist countries.

magz wrote:
Other industries are easier to develop. Poland has no high tech chips factories but e.g. a lot of local chemical and cosmetic industry.

These industries cannot support a country of 1.3 billion people. There is not such a big consumer market.


Small countries can have many contingencies. But large countries rely on necessity.
No country can accept 1.4 billion immigrants or refugees, and its industrial structure changes will affect the world. So it's a completely different game.


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magz
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24 May 2022, 5:00 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
magz wrote:
Global world is not just USA.

It is. So China is trying to trade with countries outside the US sphere of influence. But China's sea routes could easily be blocked because the South China Sea issue has not yet been resolved.
This is why there is Belt and Road Initiative. Trying to solve the traffic problem by land.

In the past, economic aggregates were growing, so a win-win situation was easy to achieve. But now that the economy is down, it can easily turn into a zero-sum game. This dynamic doesn't just happen between countries.
It's never a zero-sum game because resources are produced, distributed and consumed and on this level, everyone can benefit from the process.
The question is, how resilient this system is.

SkinnedWolf wrote:
magz wrote:
Chip factories are so expensive that very little can afford them and they are made in places investors find controllable by them, with low risk of e.g. local governments behaving unpredictably and cutting the investors out.

My impression is that in China this is dominated by the state, especially the central government. One of the most important research institutes is right next door to my university, Beijing.
And private companies that conduct research and development receive funding from the central government.
Scientific research operates in different ways in socialist countries.
We do have state-funded research here, quite a lot of it. But industry, even the cutting edge R&D branches of it, operate better within capitalist framework. Socialism is better to adress social problems that capitalism often just ignores. Poland has experienced both, the difference is pretty visible. State-run industries tend to drown in corruption and/or bureaucracy.

SkinnedWolf wrote:
magz wrote:
Other industries are easier to develop. Poland has no high tech chips factories but e.g. a lot of local chemical and cosmetic industry.

These industries cannot support a country of 1.3 billion people. There is not such a big consumer market.
1.3 billion people is an enormous consumer market for everything!

SkinnedWolf wrote:
Small countries can have many contingencies. But large countries rely on necessity.
No country can accept 1.4 billion immigrants or refugees, and its industrial structure changes will affect the world. So it's a completely different game.
I don't get why you bring migrants and refugees here.
Small countries need to find their niches on the international landscape. Large countries can be more self-oriented.


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SkinnedWolf
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24 May 2022, 5:26 am

magz wrote:
1.3 billion people is an enormous consumer market for everything!

That's the problem.
There is no internal consumption in China.
Most of the reasons are shared here with abnormal fertility rates.
China has done a lot of crazy things to boost domestic demand, but it's far from enough. The pandemic is a new blow.

Of course there can be mutual benefit between China and other countries.
But the future with the United States remains to be seen.
The economic direction of 1.3 billion people is an unprecedented question. This is almost equal to the current total of the entire developed countries.


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magz
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24 May 2022, 5:37 am

What do you mean by "no internal consumption"? I'm sure people cook, eat, wear clothes, wash themselves, build or repair their homes, change tyres, watch movies, take medications, million things like that...


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Brictoria
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24 May 2022, 9:49 am

Quote:
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.

“Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante. Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself,” he said.

He told the World Economic Forum that Russia had been an essential part of Europe for 400 years and had been the guarantor of the European balance of power structure at critical times. European leaders should not lose sight of the longer term relationship, and nor should they risk pushing Russia into a permanent alliance with China.

“I hope the Ukrainians will match the heroism they have shown with wisdom,” he said, adding with his famous sense of realpolitik that the proper role for the country is to be a neutral buffer state rather than the frontier of Europe.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/23/henry-kissinger-warns-against-defeat-russia-western-unity-sanctions/



magz
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24 May 2022, 11:55 am

^ double post. viewtopic.php?t=403880&p=9043308#p9043185


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24 May 2022, 12:03 pm

magz wrote:
What do you mean by "no internal consumption"? I'm sure people cook, eat, wear clothes, wash themselves, build or repair their homes, change tyres, watch movies, take medications, million things like that...

Most classes have no spending power other than the necessities of life.
Real estate harvested most of the property. And, as I have described, working hours that are close to human limits.

My impression is data show that China's household savings rate has fallen sharply over the past two decades. (It is well known that Chinese people like to save) and increased leverage.

"Increasing internal consumption" has been repeatedly emphasized in the last few local five-year plans I've read. But apparently they weren't done.


The theory on the left is that the government, through real estate, borrows future decades of output from the entire country into the present to quickly complete our infrastructure. Then it's time for us to pay our debts.
Actually a lot of infrastructure is now unnecessary, but new ones are still being added reluctantly. Because we don't have the internal spending power to consume those outputs.
Great Depression, isn't it?


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magz
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24 May 2022, 12:15 pm

Yeah, it looks pretty Great-Depression-ish :(
Where does the wealth from all this work go?


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SkinnedWolf
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24 May 2022, 12:24 pm

Real estate, and the essence of real estate in China is land finance. That is, wealth goes to the local government and then becomes infrastructure.
I think I actually covered China's economic problems in that thread about fertility.

And feeding "inside the system". 50 million "inside the system" means that every 26 people have a financial burden. It's a pretty bloated system.

Others appear to be flight capital, ie, capitalists harvest wealth and then emigrate or transfer property.

Before Xi came to power, rampant corrupt officials played a similar role.
Most famously one, a female official embezzled relief money that was supposed to be given to workers in the Northeast under the reform of state-owned enterprises and transferred the funds to her daughter. The daughter is now in Canada and is called Wanting Qu. This corruption was one of the reasons for the then extremely high suicide rate in the Northeast (China's Rust Belt).

Also, we never know China's true Gini coefficient.


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Last edited by SkinnedWolf on 24 May 2022, 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

magz
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24 May 2022, 12:29 pm

^ Sounds really bad.
Like, no room for people to work for their own well-being, especially via small businesses that adress local needs. I find this the foundation of healthy economy.


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SkinnedWolf
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24 May 2022, 12:34 pm

^This makes the events in Shanghai so critical.
We are waiting for the policy to change. Or rather, the end of a struggle that seemed to be taking place.
Otherwise, the individual economy will die out.

But quite a lot of those who support the continuation of "dynamic zero" are "in the system" or whose students whose universities have not been affected. Because their income has not been affected.


But maybe it's my faction that makes my narrative so pessimistic.


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magz
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24 May 2022, 12:57 pm

I understand, in Shanghai, significant amount of international money could end up in pockets of regular citizens - but not under the dynamic zero policy that bulldozes small businesses.


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SkinnedWolf
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24 May 2022, 1:03 pm

Well, there are quite a few arguments that dynamic zero increases the opportunity for the government or related households to benefit a lot.
That is, continue to harvest civilian property.


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24 May 2022, 6:37 pm

magz wrote:


I wonder if that could have been intentional on the part of the person who posted it, as the linked article\information was related to the subject matter that the threads in which it was posted were discussing?

Just something to consider...



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25 May 2022, 1:47 am

In such case, you can cross-link your responses. Copy-paste is in really bad taste.

You got the response in the other thread.
Apparently, Dr Kissinger loves to have a genocidal agressor for "balance". Seeing how he reacted to Bengali genocide in 1971, when he was in charge - I'm not surprised.
Realpolitik is always at someone else's expense.


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25 May 2022, 6:21 am

magz wrote:
In such case, you can cross-link your responses. Copy-paste is in really bad taste.

You got the response in the other thread.
Apparently, Dr Kissinger loves to have a genocidal agressor for "balance". Seeing how he reacted to Bengali genocide in 1971, when he was in charge - I'm not surprised.
Realpolitik is always at someone else's expense.


So, you see providing relevent information to a discussion in a way that people can easily process it and respond as being in "bad taste"?

Not everyone reads (or wishes to read) every thread, and placing links such as in the above "double post" remark (which could be to a thread containing discussions which are only tangetially related) comes across as showing disrespect for the readers of the thread in which this occurs - suggesting the person doing this sees those people as not being worth the time\effort to provide information to directly, as well as both forcing them to take effort to access information which could have as easily been supplied to them directly, and making referring to details from it where it may be applicable to discussions within that thread problematic.



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