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magz
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26 May 2022, 2:31 am

cyberdad wrote:
Is it possible that assuming Putin wants the old Soviet union back is an oversimplification as well?
Depends on the level of detail. It's certainly a simplification. Weather it's an oversimplification depends how precise predictions on his possible next moves you try to make.

Moldova is in a delicate position because of Transdnistria - a separatist region that did not accept collapse of Soviet Union, with Russian army stationing there.
There were several provocations in Transdnistria in early May but local authorities managed to calm the situation down. So far, it's stable - however, if Russia managed to conquer the whole South Ukraine, it would change dramatically.


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cyberdad
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26 May 2022, 2:35 am

magz wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
Is it possible that assuming Putin wants the old Soviet union back is an oversimplification as well?
Depends on the level of detail. It's certainly a simplification. Weather it's an oversimplification depends how precise predictions on his possible next moves you try to make.

Moldova is in a delicate position because of Transdnistria - a separatist region that did not accept collapse of Soviet Union, with Russian army stationing there.
There were several provocations in Transdnistria in early May but local authorities managed to calm the situation down. So far, it's stable - however, if Russia managed to conquer the whole South Ukraine, it would change dramatically.


Yes if south Ukraine is controlled by Russia then I can see how Moldova would perceive they might be next given they would be surround on all sides.

BTW wasn't Odessa chosen by Stalin for a peace treaty?



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26 May 2022, 4:24 am

magz wrote:
I don't really know China enough to have a strong opinion on it.
So far, I interpreted Chinese leaders as consistently pragmatic - which was good in a way, as it makes them predictable.
But the dynamic zero policy breaks out of this pattern. It's more totalitarian than pragmatic. Or maybe I'm just starting to be familiar with Chinese internal policies?

I don't think China would do something spectacularily sinister on the international scene now but I don't know where you end up in 10 years. Totalitarianism is always dangerous. For everyone. Usually more for those inside than for those outside.


Someone in China is apparently impatient.
They could have waited for the Hong Kong "treaty" (or whatever you want to call it) to end naturally.
They didn't.

I suspect the same sort of timeline applies in regard to Taiwan.
Simple speculation. <shrug>


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magz
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26 May 2022, 4:44 am

It's better to have plans for various worst case scenarios - while remembering they may not materialize.
The analyses I read claim that China would become agressive about Taiwan in some 5-6 years, when they build enough power and technological independence.
It was one of the arguments why USA aids Ukraine - so when SHTF on Pacific, Russia would be too weak to open another front in Europe.

I don't know how it all turns out, the world is a chaotic system and no one knows what butterfies flap in the meantime.
Right now, I'm concerned with totalitarian course taken by Xi. It's bad for economy but useful for warfare. That's really concerning.
But many things can hapen before Pacific situation gets ripe.

Ya know - don't act agressively but increase your military budget. Just in case. Maybe it'll be just another Cold War without a big SHTF. Hopefully.


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26 May 2022, 10:19 am

Pepe wrote:
Someone in China is apparently impatient.

This has nothing to do with impatience.

Certain external influences have been making "naturally" less and less likely.
It would be unfair to bar Beijing from responding to equal influence.

When your knowledge of Hong Kong even stops at Beijing pulverized it, it is hard to think that you can draw valid opinions on related matters.
Psychology is only a tiny factor in politics.


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26 May 2022, 10:25 am

magz wrote:
It's better to have plans for various worst case scenarios - while remembering they may not materialize.

Hope for the best , prepare for the worst.
This is sensible and fair to all.

But the active provocation by the weaker military is a kind of diplomatic performance art.


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