Tropical System Nicole

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Recon/ satellite/obs show Nicole already better organized and upgraded from subtropical to tropical. Convection is growing around the center, pressure is dropping thus wind is increasing.

Nicole is in an excellent environment for development and over 84-88 degree water. Nicole will likely become a hurricane in 24-36 hrs. Wind, freshwater flooding and storm surge flood threats increasing for Bahamas & FL.

Hurricane Wrng now issued for much of FL east coast. Also Storm Surge Wrng. Last time a hurricane struck US in Nov was 1985.

While not an Ian, Nicole is capable of widespread destruction for the east coast this time.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small
stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue
Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central
Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night.