House of Representatives Speaker chaos

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It's unclear if the House will adjourn or vote on the 12th ballot when it reconvenes Friday
Things remain murky this morning. It is unclear what happens at noon ET in the House, including whether the chamber will adjourn or vote on the 12th ballot.

It is also unclear if McCarthy will be able to pick up any new support, something viewed internally as essential.

The timing of the House GOP conference call on this emerging deal has also not been set yet, according to two sources.

What the 20 GOP hardliners voting against McCarthy say they want
It’s a very small minority of a slim majority that’s kept the House from moving forward and is on the cusp of derailing Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become speaker.

They don’t speak for the majority of Republicans. The 20 anti-McCarthy Republicans who so far derailed his bid to become House speaker represent less than 10% of the House GOP.

They aren’t the entirety of the Freedom Caucus. The hardliners are less than half the ultraconservative, ultra-MAGA wing of lawmakers.

They’re sort of gaining support. Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana became the 21st Republican member-elect to not support McCarthy starting on Wednesday, although she voted “present” rather than voting for anyone.

The hardliners also don’t speak with one voice.

“I think you need to break the 20 down,” the conservative Republican Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado said on CNN on Wednesday. Buck had been viewed as a possible defector before this week, and he made clear that patience with these votes is waning.

He suggested McCarthy’s deputy, Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, as a possible consensus speaker who could speak to three varieties of the 20 anti-McCarthy Republicans.

For some, it’s personal. “There are a few of those 20 that just aren’t going to vote for Kevin McCarthy but would vote for somebody else,” Buck said. The key question is whether that block of “never-McCarthy” House Republicans is larger than the four votes McCarthy can afford to lose.

Others want specific changes. “There are some of the others … who want changes in the rules and there are some others who care about policy,” Buck said. “So I think if Steve (Scalise) meets those three needs, he will be able to move forward and take the speakership.”

Some want to shut things down. Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina has said a non-negotiable for him is if McCarthy is “willing to shut the government down rather than raising the debt ceiling.” That suggests the kind of precarious future funding fights will pose to the economy.

These lawmakers want painful cuts now to end deficit spending. If the US was to default on its debt, it could send the US economy into a tailspin, according to most economists. A government shutdown would be less severe, but they have been unpopular when lawmakers forced them in recent years.

Some just don’t like McCarthy. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida issued a personal screed against McCarthy on Tuesday. “Maybe the right person for the speaker of the House isn’t someone who has sold shares in himself for more than a decade to get it,” Gaetz said, standing just in front of his target.

Bishop was less aggressive on CNN when he expressed the problem with McCarthy’s specific leadership.

“The fact is that you never see a specific agenda that you know Kevin McCarthy’s going to go to the mat for, as opposed to sort of pablum or poll-tested language, indicates the problem,” Bishop said. “And it’s been that way for all 14 years he’s been in leadership, with all due respect to him.”




This is the most obvious speaker solution
It’s the easiest, most elegant and simple solution to Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s failure to bring Republicans together.

Just find a few Democrats already. Form a freaking coalition. Edge out these hardline Republicans and get the House to work.

But ask just about anyone in Washington and they’ll chuckle at your naivete and shake their heads. McCarthy won’t ever ask Democrats for help. And Democrats wouldn’t give it to him. So silly.

Who can govern like this? Which leaves the vast majority of Americans to watch as McCarthy gives more and more to the intransigent fringe of his party, even as it becomes painfully clear that more than four of them have no intention of ever supporting him. He can only afford to lose four GOP votes.

By the way, this is now the most drawn-out speaker election since the outbreak of the Civil War.

Meanwhile, if McCarthy was to finally give up and step aside, whichever Republican tried to find GOP consensus would be stuck with the concessions McCarthy has already agreed to.

Look to the states.While the idea of a bipartisan coalition feels impossible in today’s Washington, it’s not a crazy idea at all.

In fact, as CNN political analyst John Avlon pointed out on “CNN This Morning,” variations of power sharing or a moderate speaker upset could be seen in multiple states this year:

In Alaska, nine Democrats and eight Republicans have put aside their differences to form a bipartisan majority in the state Senate.
In Pennsylvania, a Democrat was named speaker of the state House after gaining support from Republicans. Following the vote, he announced he would govern as an independent.
In Ohio, a moderate Republican managed to assume the state House speaker position with the support of Democrats.

How would a coalition work? Those are all unique situations with their own local dynamics, but it’s worth wondering what a coalition government in Washington might look like. “A block of House Republicans should get together with Democrats to pick a speaker to run a coalition government, which will moderate the House and marginalize the extremists,” suggested John Kasich in a tweet that was viewed more than 5 million times. He’s the former Ohio governor and representative who has turned into a cheerleader for moderation in recent years.

Democrats would have to buy in: Kasich has seen this process before. He was chairman of the House Budget Committee after the so-called “Republican Revolution” of 1994 and took part in the famous budget balancing of the second Bill Clinton administration, when the Democratic president was forced to work with a Republican House majority.

“The Democrats at some point have got to stop laughing at the Republicans and say, ‘hey, we have a golden opportunity here to come up with something that is more moderate and more workable,’” Kasich later told CNN’s Michael Smerconish on his SiriusXM podcast.


Why we could see more “present” votes today
This is something to watch. The speaker is elected by a majority of the 435-member House, which is normally 218. But "present" votes or absences lower the threshold to reach a majority.

There is already one open seat caused by the death of Virginia Democrat Rep. Donald McEachin. If enough of the 20 hardline Republicans voted "present," it could enable Rep. Kevin McCarthy to win with fewer than 218 votes. Two "present" votes lower the threshold for a majority by one vote.

435 - 1 open seat = 434; 218 is a majority.
434 - 1 "present" vote = 433; 217 is a majority.
434 - 3 "present" votes = 431; 216 is a majority.
434 - 5 "present" votes = 429; 215 is a majority.
434 - 7 "present" votes = 427; 214 is a majority.
434 - 9 "present" votes = 425; 213 is a majority.
However, the trick only works up to this point since the Democratic nominee, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, has had 212 votes. If 11 Republicans voted "present," Jeffries would become House speaker.

That means McCarthy still needs to flip at least 11 Republicans who have voted against him even if the other nine voted “present.”

There are also other reasons a member-elect could vote "present." Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana did it already as a sort of protest of McCarthy. She didn't want to support the hardliners who are trying to block his speakership, but she did.

McCarthy: "We're going to make progress today — we're going to shock you
Rep. Kevin McCarthy arrived on Capitol Hill on Friday and told reporters he's confident in the state of Republican negotiations as the House speaker fight drags into a fourth day.

We’ll have to see you know we have a couple members who have some family issues,” McCarthy said when asked about the current framework for a deal.

it is getting harder and harder not to be too embarrassed to admit i live in amuuuurica.

McCarthy appears to suffer defeat in current speaker vote despite flipping more than a dozen holdouts
Rep. Kevin McCarthy appears to have suffered defeat in the 12th ballot for House speaker, despite gaining more than a dozen votes from GOP hardliners.

The current bid for House leadership is now the longest speaker contest in 164 years as the process has now stretched into its fourth day.

Rep.-elect Warren Davidson: McCarthy got the "maximum reachable number
Ohio Rep.-elect Warren Davidson, a Freedom Caucus member who nominated Kevin McCarthy on a previous ballot, says he believes McCarthy has flipped the “maximum reachable number” of recalcitrant Republicans.

Davidson proposed, “is there a deal to be struck by someone who did not vote for McCarthy who does not cast a vote?”

He said, “that’s really the only play left I think at this point.”

“How do we work together after this?” Davidson said, noting that “emotions have run high” and the intra-party feud has turned “personal.”

Wasn't my fault, they don't even let me vote

Why GOP lawmakers say they switched their votes to McCarthy in the 12th round
ore than a dozen Republican House members flipped their votes to Kevin McCarthy for speaker in the 12th round.

Here's why they switched:

Asked by CNN why he changed his vote, Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen said that it was due to "a potential transformative deal that can outlive any speaker up here on rules."

Rep. Scott Perry told CNN that there was agreement on including language dealing with a debt ceiling increase in the final deal — a major issue in the new Congress, which will face a decision on raising the borrowing limit later this year to avoid a US debt default.

“We don’t want clean debt ceilings to just go through and just keep paying the bill without some counteractive effort to control spending.”

The deal also includes language to curb domestic spending at fiscal 2022 levels — prompting major concern from defense hawks. Perry also said he signed off on the deal after seeing it on paper, and he said he would help lobby the holdouts now.

“It is a framework of an agreement in good faith that allows us to keep moving forward,” Perry later told reporters.

He also tweeted about his decision:
We’re at a turning point. I’ve negotiated in good faith, with one purpose: to restore the People’s House back to its rightful owners. The framework for an agreement is in place, so in a good-faith effort, I voted to restore the People’s House by voting for
@gopleader

Rep. Byron Donalds, as he exited McCarthy’s office to the House floor, refused to explain why he swapped his vote for McCarthy. But he later said he is confident McCarthy will become speaker.

Donalds said every member of the Republican conference has seen elements of the framework but declined to divulge specifics to reporters. He said he is “very, very confident” that the members who voted against the California representative won’t be retaliated against if he does become speaker.

“We’ve had that discussion with the leadership here,” about potential retaliation, Donalds said.

Rep. Victoria Spartz, who had voted "present" on previous speaker ballots, explained her change on Fox News by saying, “I’m happy to see a positive change of tone and having the conversations.

"They’re not there yet but it was a very good chance of tone and that will make our conference much stronger and it will make us as Republicans much stronger, to be able to reconcile differences now so we can govern as a unit,” she added.

Spartz said negotiations such as happened this week will be necessary in a “tight majority” and that “there were some legitimate concerns that needed to be addressed” that were raised by the dissident House Republicans.

Rep. Chip Roy cautioned the talks are ongoing and there is more work to be done.

“We’re not done yet, right. We don’t have 218 on the floor yet and we’re going to keep having conversations,” Roy said.

Rep. Dan Bishop said the central details of a framework agreement are known and it "We’ve worked very hard to make sure it is achievable, that it has teeth and it is understood well.”



McCarthy gets additional support but still fails in 13th vote for speaker
Rep. Kevin McCarthy picked up an additional vote but still failed to clinch the votes for speaker on the 13th ballot, with one additional member flipping their vote to support McCarthy after the last round. Six GOP lawmakers voted against him.

GOP Rep. Andy Harris flipped his vote this round to support McCarthy.

Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries had the unanimous support of his caucus.

The final tally was 214 for McCarthy, 212 for Jeffries and 6 for Rep. Jim Jordan.


House is now adjourned until 10 p.m. ET

Here is a list of some of the major concessions and promises McCarthy has made over the course of the negotiations, according to CNN reporting.

Any member can call for a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair

McCarthy’s leadership PAC won’t play in open primaries in safe districts

Hold votes on key conservative bills, including balanced budget amendment, congressional term limits, border security
A debt ceiling hike must be paired with spending cuts

Move 12 appropriations bill individually

More Freedom Caucus representation on committees, including the House Rules Committee

Cap discretionary spending at fiscal 2022 levels, which would amount to lower levels for defense and domestic programs

Allow for 72 hours to review bills before they come to floor

Give members ability to offer more amendments on the House floor

Create an investigative committee to probe the “weaponization” of the federal government

Restore the Holman rule which can be used to reduce the salary of government officials

McCarthy's strategy includes getting some GOP holdouts to vote "present"
Part of Rep. Kevin McCarthy's strategy to win the vote for speaker is to get some of the holdouts to vote “present,” according to several sources.

That would reduce the threshold for winning the race below 218 since the rules say the winner of the race needs to have a majority of those voting for a specific candidate.

If two vote “present,” the winning number is still 217. If three vote "present," that takes it down to 216 to win.

But if just one person votes “present,” McCarthy would still need to flip a member to win.


House GOP drama causes worry over future US military aid to Ukraine
The Biden administration on Friday announced its largest drawdown yet in US military assistance to Ukraine, but there are lurking concerns that Republicans wielding newfound power in Washington could stand in the way of future aid – especially as chaos brews in the House.

The administration announced a new $2.85 billion drawdown for Ukraine, part of more than $3 billion in new military assistance to Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the administration would work with Congress to “to provide an additional $907 million of Foreign Military Financing under the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022.”

California GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who served as House minority leader in the last session and is now pursuing the House speakership, said in October that Republicans might pull back funding for Ukraine in 2023 if they took the majority in the 2022 midterm elections. Still, after making those comments the GOP leader worked behind the scenes to reassure national security leaders in his conference that he wasn’t planning to abandon Ukraine aid and was just calling for greater oversight of any federal dollars.

But there’s now concern that McCarthy’s troubled bid for the speakership – a history-defying effort that has led to more than a dozen unsuccessful votes this week – could put further limitations on Ukraine aid.

Two of the Republicans who had opposed McCarthy until Friday afternoon – Florida Rep. Byron Donalds and Texas Rep. Chip Roy – had called on the House to change leadership and debate rules over Ukraine aid. Other Ukraine aid skeptics have continued to oppose McCarthy’s bid.

how come?

Rep. Boebert votes "present" after days of stonewalling
GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert voted "present" in the 14th ballot for House speaker.

CNN had previously reported that this was a possibility.

While some key GOP holdouts have yet to budge, Boebert's vote could lower the threshold for Rep. Kevin McCarthy to become speaker.

Speaker vote appears to come down to Rep. Gaetz
Rep. Matt Gaetz will likely be the deciding vote in Rep. Kevin McCarthy's 14th attempt to secure the House speakership.

Gatez left the chamber when his name was called the first time, building to a dramatic down-to-the-wire vote.

Gaetz was one of the six remaining GOP holdouts after 13 rounds of voting.


McCarthy confronts Gaetz on House floor during chaotic 14th round of voting for speaker
After Rep. Matt Gaetz voted "present" in the 14th ballot for House speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy went over to talk to the Florida congressman.

Gaetz pointed fingers at McCarthy and when McCarthy walked away, Rep. Mike Rogers lunged at Gaetz.

McCarthy loses 14th round of voting for speakership
Rep. Kevin McCarthy has lost a 14th round of voting to secure the speaker's gavel despite earlier optimism among his allies.

The final tally was 216 votes for McCarthy, 212 for Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, two for Rep. Andy Biggs and two for Rep. Jim Jordan. In addition, there were two "present" votes.

Following his loss, CNN saw McCarthy trying to be upbeat to the supporters around him.


Sources: Rosendale told GOP leadership he would vote "present," but switched last minute
Republican leadership thought GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana would vote "present," along with Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Lauren Boebert of Colorado, in order to deliver McCarthy the speaker's gavel, multiple sources tell CNN.

But that fell apart on the floor at the last minute and is part of what led to the chaos that is unfolding.


Vote on adjourning House fails, setting up another vote for speaker

Rep. Matt Gaetz is now expected to vote "yes" on McCarthy speakership, sources say
Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida is expected to switch his vote from "present" to "yes," in theory giving Rep. Kevin McCarthy the votes to become speaker, multiple lawmakers tell CNN.

The GOP now believes it can get McCarthy his long-sought position on the 15th ballot.


Trump just spoke to Gaetz and Biggs, source says
Former President Donald Trump spoke to Reps. Andy Biggs and Matt Gaetz, calling them while they were on the House floor, a source told CNN.

McCarthy finally wins speakership, ending gridlock in the House
McCarthy has finally won the speakership after receiving 216 votes.

Republicans erupted into applause and cheers as the victory became apparent around 12:30 a.m.

It's over for now, McCarthy is the next speaker of the House
ABC News Live update