Why is Biden moving to the Political center?

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ASPartOfMe
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23 Mar 2023, 10:32 am

Nearly all of our and mostly every one else’s attention is focused on Trump. We bemoan it, vow to stop being obsessed with him. There are times such when he was kicked off major social media, and for a bit after the midterms when it did seem he was becoming significantly less the center of attention. That obviously did not last. Let’s face it advocating that we should pay less attention to him is as much of a lost cause as the Confederacy.

But there is another likely candidate for President. Fact, Trump is not President now, Biden is.
FiveThirty Eight
Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight

Quote:
Joe Biden is racing toward the political center. First, reports surfaced that his administration may resume detaining immigrant families who cross the border illegally. Then he came out in favor of blocking a Washington, D.C., law that would have reduced the penalties for certain crimes. Finally, he approved a massive new oil drilling project in Alaska that’s ardently opposed by environmentalists. So today we’re asking the question that a lot of progressive Democrats are asking themselves too: What’s the deal with Biden’s move to the center?

I can’t read Biden’s mind, but I suspect he’s doing this to improve his chances in the 2024 election. Biden hasn’t yet officially announced his reelection campaign, but moves like this leave little doubt that he’s running again. His approval rating is around 44 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. So he’s got to put in the reps to pump those numbers up.

Now, a lot of the people who disapprove of Biden are Republicans, and he’s never going to win most of their votes. But he could win over independents — and according to a February poll from Morning Consult/Politico, 43 percent of registered voters who identify as independent think Biden is too liberal.

Some of these specific moves seem tailor-made to shore up his biggest weaknesses.

And Biden probably feels comfortable moving toward the center because he’s confident in the support of his liberal base. According to that Morning Consult poll, only 21 percent of Democrats think Biden is too conservative. And even if that share increases after these moves, he’s got a long way to go before he’s in any danger of losing in a primary. Plus, it looks increasingly likely that anyone who could pose a serious threat to Biden is going to give the primary a pass.

Of course, disgruntled progressives could still hurt Biden if they don’t vote for him in the general election. But remember, every independent that Biden persuades to vote for him is worth twice as much as a Democrat who simply doesn’t vote. A converted independent probably takes a vote away from the Republican column in addition to adding one to Biden’s, while a Democrat who stays home is just minus-one for him. Plus, Biden is probably betting that progressives’ hatred of Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis will motivate them to hold their nose and vote for him anyway. And he’s probably right.

Rakich is probably right that the hatred of the Republican nominee will be so strong that progressives and moderate to liberal independents for that matter will turn out for the lesser of two evils. But there are few things that could upend this prediction.

Something massive like banks starting to fail all over the place, or China invading Taiwan, we intervene and get our asses handed to us.

An obvious decline in health. Despite the constant drumbeat over this issue he is not really more of a gaffe machine. He has been mostly together during the State of Union and when discussing Ukraine.

While I read above that independents switching outweigh stay at homes and do not dispute that assertion, the stay at homes could be decisive if the progressives get too cocky like they did in 2016. By 2018 and 2020 once they thought what would never did happen, engaged, inspired progressives turned out in record numbers. But with Trump’s probable legal problems, and the resultant distractions to his campaign I can envision progressives becoming too cocky again.

Despite what I wrote at the beginning of this post I allowed Trump to get in anyway. :(


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 23 Mar 2023, 11:37 am, edited 2 times in total.

Honey69
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23 Mar 2023, 11:27 am

Clinton, as president, kept moving further and further to the right. His attempt at health care reform failed, and then he decided to take mothers off of welfare and cut the number of government employees, while increasing the number of police. It was about not leaving the Republicans much room to attack.


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naturalplastic
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23 Mar 2023, 11:43 am

Like the article says its simple math.

A far lefty who abstains from voting for Biden because Biden isnt"progressive enough", and doesnt vote at all, causes Biden to lose one point.

But a Centrist who is swayed from Trump to Biden and does vote is worth two points to Biden (Biden gains him/her, and Trump loses them, so its a gain of two). So ofcourse Biden will fight to seize the middle ground.



Last edited by naturalplastic on 23 Mar 2023, 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

The_Walrus
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23 Mar 2023, 12:44 pm

Biden's been governing pretty far to the left economically, but on crime and immigration he's tried to signal himself as being acceptable to the right. (In other words, as far from my own policy preferences as it is possible for a combination to get!)



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23 Mar 2023, 12:56 pm

I mean he kind of started out being in the Political center, he's a democrat that is what the democrat party is for the most part though some democrat politicians lean further left.


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23 Mar 2023, 7:50 pm

The overwhelming majority of democrats are center-left at best on economics and as far left as is convenient on social issues. Biden is and always has been a fairly mainstream centrist capitalist. He has shifted slowly left on social issues over the decades as it became politically convenient. As far as the American right is concerned, if you're further left than Bill Clinton (infamous "Third Way/Big Tent" centrist) then you're a card-carrying commie/Chinese sleeper agent.

Honestly, there has been a recurring theme among establishment democrats of "we can't be too far left or we'll lose elections". In reality, this has resulted in us putting out candidates who pay lip service to helping the poor and minorities only for them to shift to the center once they are in office. Obama was the more left candidate in the '08 primary; he was called a radical (read: not a non-white economic centrist) by the Clinton campaign. Clinton lost the primary, Obama won the election. In 2016, Bernie was dog-piled by every other democratic primary contender for being unapologetically critical of capitalism. And we ended up lining up behind Clinton as the "more electable" centrist candidate. The "more electable" dem candidate then managed to lose to the radical, tactless, deeply divisive Donald Trump. Republicans seem to at least understand the importance of animating the party's base, or else you become a bland party of the center that stands for nothing except the status quo and the same old market-friendly non-solutions.


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Lecia_Wynter
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30 Apr 2023, 7:34 am

Well I would rather have Biden, Alzheimer's as he may be, than warmongering Hillary.



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30 Apr 2023, 10:38 am

Tony Blair did the same thing, stepping to the centre, and got into power with a record-breaking majority. Why does it work? Some say that most ordinary people are scared of strong socialism. Others say that the media, owned by rich men, use their brainwashing power to nobble any party leader who threatens significant redistribution. I think there's an element of truth in both those explanations. It's a rare politician that holds steadfastly to one ideology regardless of whether or not it pays.



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01 Jun 2023, 11:21 am

There will never be a true "leftist" movement in the US until enough People are... oof... "activated" lol (I don't want to use "woke" or "awakened", for obvious reasons...)

Both major political parties in the US are completely bought and controlled by capital interests (the "Duopoly"), and that class does everything in its power to ensure the masses never "activate" and bring them down. The power structure is VERY deep, and is "curated" in such a way that much of the populace focuses on the "elected officials", and their "act". IOW, Biden "moving to the center" is par for the course. There is no way to effectively move the Overton Window through the current system. That is, as above, not until enough People get the message, and begin to truly disrupt the status quo.


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cyberdad
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01 Jun 2023, 4:33 pm

I mean it's marketing isn't it?

His donors want him to maintain his popularity



kitesandtrainsandcats
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01 Jun 2023, 4:44 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
An obvious decline in health. Despite the constant drumbeat over this issue he is not really more of a gaffe machine.


Two things come to mind:

Biden is 80, Trump is 77 this month. It is about time to have a fast and furious decline in health given the way things go at those ages.


Eh, anyone can do that at any age,
Biden trips and falls during graduation ceremony, recovers quickly
Reuters
June 1, 2023 3:33 PM CDT Updated an hour ago

Both can be sourced here,
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden- ... 023-06-01/


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01 Jun 2023, 5:43 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Why is Biden moving to the Political center?
To garner more votes.


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