Possible Hurricane threat to parts of Florida

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A tropical depression formed Saturday evening just east of the Yucatán Peninsula, and is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm and then Hurricane Idalia before striking Florida's Gulf Coast next week.

Threat level: The storm, to be named Idalia, is forecast to intensify — potentially rapidly, over record-warm ocean waters for this time of year.

This means what will eventually become Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify quicker than the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which takes it to a Category 1 storm before landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Computer models are showing the potential for the storm to reach Category 2 or even 3 intensity before making landfall somewhere between Tampa and Tallahassee.

The storm's ultimate intensity will depend on how quickly it can organize near the Mexican coast through Sunday, and how much wind shear, which occurs when winds blow in different directions or at varied speeds with height, impedes its circulation.

During the past few years, Florida has been hit with multiple storms along its Gulf Coast that have intensified at rapid rates, a process linked in part to climate change.

For now, the Hurricane Center is advising those on the west coast of Florida and Florida Panhandle, as well as the Southeast more broadly, to pay close attention to the latest forecasts and get their hurricane plans in place.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of
Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to
the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm
surge and hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding can be expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. Flooding
from heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the southeast U.S. by
mid to late week.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm
conditions possible on the Isle of Youth.

President Biden on Monday spoke with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to offer federal assistance as the state braces for Tropical Storm Idalia, marking a rare interaction between the president and the 2024 GOP presidential candidate, who is a frequent Biden critic.

Biden told DeSantis on the call he had approved an emergency declaration for Florida in anticipation of the storm, freeing up additional federal resources for the state to respond to it. FEMA has also deployed personnel and resources to the state, the White House said in a readout of the call.

“President Biden said Florida will have his full support as they prepare for Idalia and its aftermath. President Biden also expressed his commitment to ongoing support for the people of Jacksonville following the horrific shooting on Saturday,” the White House said in a statement.

But the two have set aside politics in the past, with Biden visiting Florida after a building collapse in 2021 and again meeting with DeSantis and state officials to tour storm damage in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian last year.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening
storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force
winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
later tonight into Thursday.

Idalia continues to undergo rapid intensification.

The initial wind
speed is set to 115 kt, making Idalia an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane.

The hurricane still has a few hours left to intensify before it
makes landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.
Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Destructive life-threatening winds will occur where the core of
Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with
hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also
spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern
Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane
Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared
for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are
likely in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South
Carolina where Hurricane Warnings are now in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts, are expected from the Florida Big Ben through,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
into Thursday.

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IDALIA MAKES LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...745 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicate that the eye of Idalia made
landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach
around 745 AM EDT (1145 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained
winds were near 125 mph (205 km/h). The latest minimum pressure
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 949 mb (28.02
inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station at Keaton Beach, Florida,
measured sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h), with a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located
southwest of Hampton Springs, Florida, recently reported a wind gust
of 68 mph (109 km/h).

Water levels along the coast of the Florida Big Bend are rising
rapidly. A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.9 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.