Florida threatened by tropical system Helene
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Hurricane watch ordered for Florida as Tropical Storm Helene moves closer
Helene officially formed Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. advisory. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday, and authorities are urging people to prepare and exercise caution.
The hurricane watch extends from Indian Pass in northwest Florida near Panama City, to Englewood, and includes Tampa Bay.
At 2 p.m. ET the weather system was about 175 miles east, southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It’s moving northwest at 12 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If it further upgrades, it'll be the fourth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year.
The center of the storm is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, the NHC said.
It could potentially reach the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday. Helene could become a major hurricane, meaning a Category 3 (with 111 - 129 mph winds) or higher, by then.
Helene is forecast to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals around 12 inches. In the southeastern U.S., it’s forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, and will likely result in local flash and urban flooding. It’s also forecast to bring storm surge and strong tide, leading to flooding by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline, the NHC said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 counties Monday, which was expanded to include 61 counties Tuesday. Sandbags were being distributed in Tallahassee, Gulfport and Henrico County ahead of potential flooding.
DeSantis said he requested a pre-landfall emergency declaration from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and President Joe Biden approved it Tuesday. The governor warned that prediction models range from showing the disturbance forming into a tropical storm, and others show it exploding into a possible Category 4 Major Hurricane.
Models show the Big Bend and Panhandle areas should brace for potential direct impact, he said.
Jonathan Vigh, a meteorologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said on social media platform X on Monday that early data show "the highest probabilities are aimed at #Tallahassee, capital of #Florida, which has about a 45% chance that the center passes nearby."
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1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.
2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the
southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally
catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and
northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are
likely.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
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Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 67
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Location: Long Island, New York
Hurricane Expert Bryan Norcross says:
“ HURRICANE HELENE UPDATE: MAJOR FLORIDA IMPACTS IN FLORIDA FROM HURRICANE HELENE TODAY THEN A CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL TONIGHT
We are just in phase 1 of a historic hurricane event. Hurricane Helene is intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico as it heads toward landfall on the northeastern Florida coast tonight. The storm is in the top 5 of the largest modern Cat 3+ hurricanes on record in the vicinity of Florida. Large-diameter hurricanes produce higher storm surges. The entire Gulf Coast of Florida will be affected.
Some coastal flooding is already underway. The Gulf water level along Florida's West Coast will continue to increase during the day. Follow local instructions so you aren't trapped. The science that predicts storm-surge heights so people have time to get out is very exact. Don't take a chance.
Helene is starting out as a very large storm. The strong winds extend over 300 miles from the center, which more than covers the state of Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings for winds over 40 mph with gusts in many locations over 75 mph are in effect for all of the Florida Peninsula and north into the Carolinas, Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and part of Alabama.
Through the day today, Helene will pass over a super high-energy pool of water that is expected to help the system intensify rapidly. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to reach high-end Category 3 or Category 4 strength this afternoon as it heads for the coast south or southeast of Tallahassee.
If Helene comes ashore as a Category 3 or 4 as forecast, it will be the strongest hurricane to make landfall on that part of the Florida coast in more than 150 years. There was a devastating hurricane that impacted the Big Bend of Florida and Tallahassee in 1842. Nothing since then has come ashore as a Category 3 or higher in that area. Hurricane Idalia hit farther south last year, of course, and mostly missed Florida's Capital City.
The Gulf water will be pushed up to 20 feet above normal high tide on the coast south of Tallahassee around to Cedar Key. A little farther south in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, up to 8 feet of storm surge is possible if the peak of the push from Helene's winds occurs at high tide. It is critical that everyone near any waterway that opens to the Gulf from Panama City around the coast and south to Southwest Florida knows what the storm surge forecast is for their area and reacts according to emergency management instructions.
People died unnecessarily in Hurricane Ian because they weren't aware of the storm surge threat for where they lived. Let's not let that happen again. Seek out information and instructions from your local officials. They will have analyzed the threat and have a plan to keep everybody safe.
There's no way to know exactly where Helene's outer bands will set up, but over the entire Florida Peninsula, winds will be gusty enough today to knock out power. In addition, in the areas under repeated tropical downpours, local flooding is possible. Keep everything charged and be aware of where you park your car. Find high ground and don't park under a tree.
Phase 2 of the storm will be this evening when Helene makes landfall. Based on everything we know, damage will be widespread around Tallahassee east and west and far north into Georgia. These are heavily treed communities that will not handle extreme winds. Power could be out for weeks.
In the Panhandle, action can still be taken this morning to be ready for what's coming tonight. Have a stockpile of food and water in case you get trapped at home. Know where you'll ride out the storm. An interior closet, hallway, or bathroom is usually the safest space. Get a mattress off the bed and have it ready for protection if the worst happens and your home starts coming apart. Stay away from windows.
Along the coast south and southwest of Tallahassee, the storm surge will be unsurvivable. No one should stay anywhere near any waterway that feeds into the Gulf, even well away from the coast.
In the Tampa Bay area, including St. Pete Beach and the barrier islands, the storm surge is forecast to reach up to 8 feet above normal in some part of that zone. It's imperative that everybody follow the instructions of emergency management immediately, so they are in place when the storm surge is likely to peak later today.
See the map with the storm-surge forecasts and the detailed text version below.
Phase 3 of this catastrophic event will occur on Friday as the storm races into Georgia and stalls over the mid-South or the Midwest. A tremendous amount of tropical moisture will stream north. Life-threatening flash flooding is forecast for a large area from northeast Georgia across the upstate of South Carolina, western North Carolina, and surrounding states. This is an extremely dangerous situation.
In metropolitan Atlanta, the winds could be strong enough to knock out power to millions of people. The exact track of the center of the storm on Friday is somewhat uncertain, of course. But if it tracks just west of Atlanta, as is currently forecast, hurricane-strength wind gusts could impact most of North Georgia. Now is the time to prepare for an extended period without power. Charge your devices. Store water in case the city's system fails.
If this storm tracks as forecast, it will have a bigger impact on metropolitan Atlanta than Hurricane Opal in 1995, which was devastating.
The potential impacts from Helene are so widespread that it's impossible to cover them in one post. Be sure you know what the National Weather Service is forecasting for your particular area. Life-threatening hazards are likely across the Florida Peninsula through large parts of the Southeast and into the mid-South and Midwest.
The weather pattern that's driving Helene north is very unusual. A large upper-level low-pressure system is centered over western Tennessee and Arkansas with a strong counterclockwise flow around it. A high-pressure system is over the Atlantic off the Southeast Coast. In between, there is a well-defined corridor to the north, which is where Helene will track.
Once Helene tracks through Georgia, it will be captured and eventually absorbed by the upper low. The combination of the energy and the moisture coming north with Helene and the energy in the upper low will create extreme weather conditions across a large area. The result is expected to be life-threatening floods, extreme winds, and tornadoes, especially east of the track of Helene's center. The threat extends across the Southeast all the way to the coast.
Today is impact day in Florida. Tomorrow is impact day farther north. Everybody in the affected areas should stay aware and stay informed. This is a highly unusual and, in some areas, an unprecedented event. Be ready and stay safe.”
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
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