17 Oct 2008, 11:06 am
UncleBeer wrote:
And according to actuarial tables, neither will Sarah Palin (at least not as a result of McCain dying in office). In view of that fact, I guess this entire "PALIN 'DIASTER" [sic] thread can be expunged. 
Actuarial tables say no such thing - they do not say that McCain will not die in the next 4 years. They say that for a large group of men McCain's age, the probability of dying is around 1 in 6, which is the same as the odds of losing at Russian roulette. Further, any analysis worth doing would have to adjust for individual circumstances (history of melanoma, etc.). And it is obvious that there is an even higher risk that he might become incapacitated from various health problems, again requiring the Vice President to fill in.
McCain's age alone would not be such a big factor if his veep candidate was not such a golem.
UncleBeer
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17 Oct 2008, 1:53 pm
monty wrote:
UncleBeer wrote:
And according to actuarial tables, neither will Sarah Palin (at least not as a result of McCain dying in office). In view of that fact, I guess this entire "PALIN 'DIASTER" [sic] thread can be expunged.
Actuarial tables say no such thing - they do not say that McCain will not die in the next 4 years. They say that for a large group of men McCain's age, the probability of dying is around 1 in 6, which is the same as the odds of losing at Russian roulette. Further, any analysis worth doing would have to adjust for individual circumstances (history of melanoma, etc.). And it is obvious that there is an even higher risk that he might become incapacitated from various health problems, again requiring the Vice President to fill in. Quote:
The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for known health problems.
By the end of a second term, McCain would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.
"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," says James Brooks, an actuary with the firm. "They're both in outstanding health. ... "
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for known health problems.
By the end of a second term, McCain would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.
"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," says James Brooks, an actuary with the firm. "They're both in outstanding health. ... "
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/pol ... 33152.html (this from AP; hardly McCain cheerleaders)
Eat (more) crow.
17 Oct 2008, 2:27 pm
UncleBeer wrote:
Eat (more) crow.
No crow to eat.
One could say 'the odds highly favor anyone who plays Russian roulette once.' It is not merely a question of probability, but acceptable risk. That involves values as well as numbers, and Palin values are not what I or most of the country want.
According to the actuarialists, McCain 'has a health-span' of about 8 years. Does that mean that he will be healthy for 8 years? No, it means on average, people similar to him will have 8 years of health, but half will have less, and many will have much less. There is a 50-50 chance that someone like McCain will be unable to serve two terms as President.
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17 Oct 2008, 4:49 pm
