Mootoo wrote:
I still don't see a trend on that page, just the odd result where he happens to be a few points ahead, and then usually reversing again... up and down is the only trend apparent.
See this is the problem being an outside observer, I don't know how much American media you consume but the our corporate fascist media which is universally behind Hillary and in the last month or so have been waging all out war against Trump throwing out any vestiges of journalistic integrity. The information you get simply is not credible. They've tried to declare Trump's candidacy dead, that Hillary would win in a landslide, that her temporary convention bump would be anything else, they basically report any and everything about Trump with a negative slant no matter how positive the story.
I predicted the race would narrow again after the convention, things would even out after a month or so(as I predicted), more revelations about Hillary will come fourth, and she'll get bulldozed in the debates. I think polls are understating Trump's support both thru blatant partisan manipulation but also thru desirability bias, the historic trends are still the same, very confident for November. They try to talk about how bad Trump is with minorities but it really isn't based in fact, does anybody really believe that Hillary is going to get more of the black vote than Barack Obama? Hispanics support Trump in greater numbers than they did John McCain and Mitt Romney, the GOP already pretty much bottomed out on their support so if anything Trump is attracting people to the party. I think him focusing his campaign on reaching out to these communities has been a welcomed change, everything has been so much better with Manafort gone and the new leadership brought in. Trump has a wide lead with independents, Hillary cannot win if she loses independents by 20%. You look at what the same poll says previously as they
usually keep the same methodology throughout the election altho pollers this year seem to want to play around with it
for whatever reasons. Read the tabs, polls are pretty much worthless if you don't understand them.