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b9
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08 Aug 2017, 12:08 am

mikeman7918 wrote:
No, I don't believe any of that at all. Yes, climate changes over time naturally but these changes are very slow. It takes literally thousands of years for the average global temperature to change a single degree Celsius naturally


and it takes thousands of years of data collection to calculate the current average.

we are talking about simple climactic volatility that can move in cycles of 10 years to 1000 years.

but i do accept that there is currently a rise in average temperature measure from only about 100 years of reliable data.

ice cores give a much more broad, but less resolved idea of the global situation through time.

so averages derived from 150 years of usable data are quite inadequate to make long term predictions with.

mikeman7918 wrote:
but then right as we started burning coal on an industrial scale the temperature started shooting up hundreds of times faster then that and it has only gotten faster since in proportion with the amount of fossil fuel that we have been burning. Coincidence? I think not.

well i think so.
the correlation coefficients over a long period of time are negligible.

mikeman7918 wrote:
I just hope that we don't start a run away greenhouse effect, because that's what happened to the planet Venus even though it's in the habitable zone of the Sun.


it is not certain how much water venus has.
if it is insufficient for the genesis of life, then life would never have evolved there which seems likely.

carbon dioxide is not consumed and converted into biomass, so oxygen will never be a significant component of the atmosphere.

it is the immense amount of volcanic activity on venus that makes it the horrible place it is.

the earth has not cooled off to the point that the core has solidified, so it is geologically alive.
the tectonic activity on earth is dictated by convection which is influenced by magnetism.

the same is the case on venus, but the molten core of venus has not cooled as fast as the earth's due to it's increased gravitational spherical deformation as it goes around the sun, thus producing high friction which pumps lot's of energy into the heat of the core.

this results in much more tectonic activity there than on earth, and the toxic expulsions of the volcanoes render it to be a hell hole.



mikeman7918
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08 Aug 2017, 1:45 am

b9 wrote:
and it takes thousands of years of data collection to calculate the current average.

we are talking about simple climactic volatility that can move in cycles of 10 years to 1000 years.

but i do accept that there is currently a rise in average temperature measure from only about 100 years of reliable data.

ice cores give a much more broad, but less resolved idea of the global situation through time.

so averages derived from 150 years of usable data are quite inadequate to make long term predictions with.

Actually I am going off of data collected from burred shells made by microorganisms. They contain oxygen molecules that are obtained by stripping the hydrogen from water, so they are great for telling the isotope concentration of the water at the time that microorganism lived. Since water molecules with heavier oxygen isotopes are heavier they are harder to evaporate so they tend to stay in the ocean while water molecules with lighter isotopes of oxygen evaporate, so the more water evaporates the higher the concentration of heavy isotopes and since water evaporation is so dependent on heat this method can be used to construct a very accurate model of the climate on Earth over millions of years, and the accuracy is great enough to rule out temperature spikes like the one we are currently experiencing.

b9 wrote:
it is not certain how much water venus has.
if it is insufficient for the genesis of life, then life would never have evolved there which seems likely.

carbon dioxide is not consumed and converted into biomass, so oxygen will never be a significant component of the atmosphere.

it is the immense amount of volcanic activity on venus that makes it the horrible place it is.

the earth has not cooled off to the point that the core has solidified, so it is geologically alive.
the tectonic activity on earth is dictated by convection which is influenced by magnetism.

the same is the case on venus, but the molten core of venus has not cooled as fast as the earth's due to it's increased gravitational spherical deformation as it goes around the sun, thus producing high friction which pumps lot's of energy into the heat of the core.

this results in much more tectonic activity there than on earth, and the toxic expulsions of the volcanoes render it to be a hell hole.

Venus and Earth have many differences and I am not blaming all of them on the greenhouse effect, but the greenhouse effect is definitely the cause of it's high temperatures which is what I am talking about. Venus would still be an inhospitable without the toxic atmosphere because if you were put there butt naked then breathing the atmosphere isn't what would kill you, you would be dead long before that becomes a problem from the heat and pressure.

Venus doesn't just have a different atmospheric composition then Earth, it has much higher pressure. Both Venus and Earth came form the same materials so where all that extra carbon dioxide came from is the rocks which release any stored carbon dioxide when sufficiently heated, and on Earth water stores a ton of greenhouse gas too. Granted, if Earth does have a worst case scenario full on run away greenhouse then it couldn't possibly be as it is on Venus but it doesn't have to reach that kind of extreme to cause serious problems.


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08 Aug 2017, 7:51 am

naturalplastic wrote:
... I dunnno about this edge of the earth thing. Might be true. But I doubt it.

It is just a joke along with saying Columbus did not know where he was headed when he left, did not know where he was when he arrived and did not know where he had been after he had returned.


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08 Aug 2017, 9:37 am

mikeman7918 wrote:
b9 wrote:
and it takes thousands of years of data collection to calculate the current average.

we are talking about simple climactic volatility that can move in cycles of 10 years to 1000 years.

but i do accept that there is currently a rise in average temperature measure from only about 100 years of reliable data.

ice cores give a much more broad, but less resolved idea of the global situation through time.

so averages derived from 150 years of usable data are quite inadequate to make long term predictions with.

Actually I am going off of data collected from burred shells made by microorganisms. They contain oxygen molecules that are obtained by stripping the hydrogen from water, so they are great for telling the isotope concentration of the water at the time that microorganism lived. Since water molecules with heavier oxygen isotopes are heavier they are harder to evaporate so they tend to stay in the ocean while water molecules with lighter isotopes of oxygen evaporate, so the more water evaporates the higher the concentration of heavy isotopes and since water evaporation is so dependent on heat this method can be used to construct a very accurate model of the climate on Earth over millions of years, and the accuracy is great enough to rule out temperature spikes like the one we are currently experiencing.

b9 wrote:
it is not certain how much water venus has.
if it is insufficient for the genesis of life, then life would never have evolved there which seems likely.

carbon dioxide is not consumed and converted into biomass, so oxygen will never be a significant component of the atmosphere.

it is the immense amount of volcanic activity on venus that makes it the horrible place it is.

the earth has not cooled off to the point that the core has solidified, so it is geologically alive.
the tectonic activity on earth is dictated by convection which is influenced by magnetism.

the same is the case on venus, but the molten core of venus has not cooled as fast as the earth's due to it's increased gravitational spherical deformation as it goes around the sun, thus producing high friction which pumps lot's of energy into the heat of the core.

this results in much more tectonic activity there than on earth, and the toxic expulsions of the volcanoes render it to be a hell hole.

Venus and Earth have many differences and I am not blaming all of them on the greenhouse effect, but the greenhouse effect is definitely the cause of it's high temperatures which is what I am talking about. Venus would still be an inhospitable without the toxic atmosphere because if you were put there butt naked then breathing the atmosphere isn't what would kill you, you would be dead long before that becomes a problem from the heat and pressure.

Venus doesn't just have a different atmospheric composition then Earth, it has much higher pressure. Both Venus and Earth came form the same materials so where all that extra carbon dioxide came from is the rocks which release any stored carbon dioxide when sufficiently heated, and on Earth water stores a ton of greenhouse gas too. Granted, if Earth does have a worst case scenario full on run away greenhouse then it couldn't possibly be as it is on Venus but it doesn't have to reach that kind of extreme to cause serious problems.

It is speculated that Venus once had similar conditions to Earth and that the greenhouse effects ended up evaporating all the oceans; I have read somewhere that the temperature would have then been so high that the surface became melted rocks until UV rays broke the water vapor molecular bonds and the hydrogen escaped the atmosphere. If that's the case all trace that could be left by life on the surface is long gone.


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EzraS
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08 Aug 2017, 11:18 am

I bet they never send a manned mission to land on Venus either.



kraftiekortie
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08 Aug 2017, 11:22 am

Anybody who goes near the Venusian atmosphere will surely die.



auntblabby
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08 Aug 2017, 11:23 am

the upper Venusian atmosphere is surprisingly temperate, compared to the surface below. proposed manned space missions to the planet are all about exploring the upper atmosphere in large balloons.



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08 Aug 2017, 11:24 am

The joke about Columbus has a strong ring of truth to it.



Last edited by kraftiekortie on 08 Aug 2017, 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

mikeman7918
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08 Aug 2017, 11:25 am

EzraS wrote:
I bet they never send a manned mission to land on Venus either.

I don't know about that, forever is a long time. It will likely be the last planet we set foot on though assuming humanity lives long enough to get that far.


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mikeman7918
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08 Aug 2017, 11:27 am

Tollorin wrote:
It is speculated that Venus once had similar conditions to Earth and that the greenhouse effects ended up evaporating all the oceans; I have read somewhere that the temperature would have then been so high that the surface became melted rocks until UV rays broke the water vapor molecular bonds and the hydrogen escaped the atmosphere. If that's the case all trace that could be left by life on the surface is long gone.

I've heard about that, it's pretty fascinating stuff.


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auntblabby
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08 Aug 2017, 12:03 pm

venus and mars are about as opposite as planets get.



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naturalplastic
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08 Aug 2017, 2:58 pm

Venus is even hotter than Mercury despite the fact that the latter is closer to the sun.

They have talked about seeding the clouds of Venus with microbes to start the process of "terraforming" the place. But that would be a multi thousands of years project.



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08 Aug 2017, 3:23 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Venus is even hotter than Mercury despite the fact that the latter is closer to the sun.

They have talked about seeding the clouds of Venus with microbes to start the process of "terraforming" the place. But that would be a multi thousands of years project.


If there was life on Venus, we'd have to assume it would have to be utterly alien and different from that on earth, considering the conditions in which it would have had to evolve in. That said, terraforming Venus would doubtlessly bring about its extinction.


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08 Aug 2017, 7:21 pm

Mars could also theoretically be teraformed by evaporating it's poles (probably by making use of all our nukes) and letting bacteria produce oxygen and generally prepare the place for human life. With the help of greenhouse gasses it could be brought to the same average temperature as Earth and all the water frozen under the surface could be melted into oceans. It would probably be a much easier process then teraforming Venus, although it would still take over a thousand years.


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auntblabby
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08 Aug 2017, 8:50 pm

the problem with mars is that its irregular magnetic field offers no protection from the fierce solar winds that stripped its atmosphere away in the first place. no amount of terraforming can fix this. fix mars' magnetic field first.