cyberdad wrote:
“How likely would bacteria and simple organisms be to form intelligent life, we don’t know...Even assuming...
Operative word: "
Assuming."
For all the speculation about "primordial ooze" spontaneously generating even single-celled life, we have yet to recreate that phenomena in the laboratory, meaning
we don't know all the requirements for making it happen -
or if it can happen at all. All our assumptions about the origin of life
may be wrong.
Therefore, it is IMPOSSIBLE to create a mathematical formula for predicting the odds of this (so far mythical) process occurring on other planets.
What we
do know, is that for life to even survive on THIS planet, over 250+ absolute requirements exist - including exact distance from the host star, liquid oxygen atmosphere, a spinning molten core to create a magnetosphere for protecting fragile life from solar radiation, nearby gas giants to absorb and deflect incoming asteroids, etc, etc.
As with so much of modern "scientific knowledge," this is nothing but speculation, based on previous speculation, with zero empirical evidence to back it up. "
There must be life out there, 'cause look at all the stars" is not science, it is fantasy.
We have no way of
knowing whether such a thing is even
possible, much less
likely, because we still don't KNOW how it happened here. Ultimately, belief in alien life as much an act of faith as believing in God.
Speculating about invisible living organisms based on fluctuating methane levels is like Man Made Climate Change - using science fiction and speculation to promote a political agenda. Like it or not,
as far as we know, we may well be alone in this universe.
But while we're talking SciFi, if you find 'em, by all means, bring 'em on back for study - it worked so well in
Aliens.
_________________
"I don't mean to sound bitter, cynical or cruel - but I am, so that's how it comes out." - Bill Hicks