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richardbenson
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18 Sep 2009, 5:18 pm

everyone would trade in sportscards and fire agate


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Winds of clarity. a universal understanding come and go, I've seen though the Darkness to understand the bounty of Light


PlatedDrake
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20 Sep 2009, 10:17 pm

To Inventor;

You're not actually far from the "theoretical" truth. When i took a geology class in 2000, the teacher stated that humanity will hit its equilibrium population in 2050: est. Pop - 12 billion. As for modern society collapsing . . . well, Rome only withstood a millenia or so. Someone eventually gets greedy, tries to take all power to him/herself, then all comes crashing down. However, unlike Rome, we have WMDs, heavy naval weapons, tanks, etc. So if something happens, humanity is pretty much screwed. On another note, the teacher i had stated that fear is pretty much the reason behind this sort of thing (fear os losing something you want, etc). So, if we cannot control our primal fears with respect to wanting more, i see that downfall happening post-2050ish.



Zonder
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06 Jan 2010, 11:06 am

Thanks to Alex for his interview with Tyler Cowen.

I, for one, really enjoyed it and hope that everyone reads it!

Alex's interview with Dr. Cowen.

Z



Asp-Z
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06 Jan 2010, 11:19 am

Dilbert wrote:
Best economy is no economy. Eventually we'll build self sufficient self repairing self managing factories which will then crank out anything we require. Goods and raw materials will be transported by robots as well. All our junk will be recycled and put back into circulation as raw materials.


That won't happen. Firstly, the huge companies today would use all their power to stop it. Second, you'd still need people to set up businesses to pay for the robots, the delivery of products, managing the money, etc.

"No economy" would be horrible anyway... How would I ever get rich in that crappy system?



wildgrape
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06 Jan 2010, 12:10 pm

Quote:
Thanks to Alex for his interview with Tyler Cowen.

I, for one, really enjoyed it and hope that everyone reads it!

Alex's interview with Dr. Cowen.


Thanks for pointing out the article, Zonder. I enjoyed it, too.



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06 Jan 2010, 3:18 pm

PlatedDrake,

We are the enemy. The planet might support 12 billion, but we will cause worse problems. 12 Billion is also based on climate not changing. It was also based on a growing economy. We just lost a decade, less than half a million jobs created, the lowest before, with less people, 10,000,000 new jobs. Back to DOW 10,000, but this time the dollar is worth half as much. That puts our peak support abilities much lower, hence the max supportable population lower and sooner. The crash may come at 8 billion and in 10 years.

Considering that is 40 or 10 years in the future, it does seem more important than all the recent science about sea level rise, and getting a few degrees warmer in a hundred years. 60 to 80 years after the population crash, sea level might be one meter higher.

It does have to do with the interview, what information is picked out as being important.

A low normal projection for the last decade would be DOW 20,000, and 10,000,000 more jobs. We lost 15,000,000 jobs. We are not likely to see much growth, so we are stuck.

We are likely to still be stuck when the effects of max load show up.

Create Your Own Economy, is what caught my eye, and I see autistic thinking as something more than the new media. Picking the important facts out of the sea of data seems autistic. None of our science and invention types created anything, it was all there, they just connected the dots, and saw something that stood out. It was always there.

When one set of numbers change, the decline of capital and employment, the rise of debt, it changes all future numbers. My view is it is time to find some place far out in the country with good water and soil. We may well change the public perception of autism, but we are not going to change their behavior.

I see it as The Big A, High Functioning seems to be those who are NT like, an insult. Some speak, it does not work, some don't, it does not work, we are all Big A.

What is common to all is a differance in thought and perception. We will always be different.

Reacting to those who would sell a snake oil cure is perhaps needed, but does not further our own press image.

The autistic we claim from the past all did something, Newton, Tesla, picking the facts out of their world, and creating another.

Since social posturing does not work for us, we have always been more reality based.

So study hard, for there is a big test coming.



Magneto
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06 Jan 2010, 4:14 pm

Quote:
The autistic we claim from the past all did something, Newton, Tesla, picking the facts out of their world, and creating another.

Because the autistic people who didn't do anything great aren't remembered, and so can't be posthumously diagnosed. Except for my great-granddad Frank, and Aeronautics engineer, who has been diagnosed by my mother... :lol:



Awesomelyglorious
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08 Jan 2010, 10:15 pm

I am also quite glad to see the interview. Tyler Cowen is one of the people I am quite glad to see interviewed. I've read his blog marginal revolution for quite some time by this point and I generally find him a somewhat interesting person.

I think I should get Cowen's book at some point.

Zonder, would you recommend the book? What do you think the strengths are? The weaknesses? What kinds of people would you recommend the book to?



Zonder
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10 Jan 2010, 10:10 am

Awesomelyglorious wrote:
I am also quite glad to see the interview. Tyler Cowen is one of the people I am quite glad to see interviewed. I've read his blog marginal revolution for quite some time by this point and I generally find him a somewhat interesting person.

I think I should get Cowen's book at some point.

Zonder, would you recommend the book? What do you think the strengths are? The weaknesses? What kinds of people would you recommend the book to?


Thanks for the questions Awesomelyglorious . . . I don't have the book with me at the moment, but I'll try to answer them.

I would recommend the book - it was a "feel good" experience for me - that autism spectrum characteristics can have such positive aspects. I was also impressed by Cowen's taking on those who have preconceived ideas about what the Spectrum is, and showing that technologies are moving nearly everyone to being more autistic.

Cowen's strength is being able to take disparate ideas and examples and weave them into something new and intriguing. The weakness of the book is that it's title is slightly misleading - this is not a get-rich-quick guide to making money. But it is, as one reviewer has stated, a manifesto of the autism spectrum.

The book is engaging and easy to read, and I'd suggest it for anyone who wants to look at technology and the spectrum in new ways. It is a hopeful book that, I believe, can help individuals begin to explore ways to create their own economy.

Z