Hurricane Maria

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1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early this week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical
storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward
Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and
westward later today and tonight.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Maria is likely to strengthen significantly, and is expected to
be at major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the
Leeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind,
storm surge and rainfall hazards.

2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane
watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
as well as for Puerto Rico. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local
officials.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. The aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern
eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt. In
addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye
has fallen to 959 mb. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,
making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The small eye is also apparent in radar data
from Martinique.

The initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous
motion. Other than that, there is little change in either the
forecast philosophy or the forecast track. A high pressure area to
the north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward
motion for the next three days or so. After that, the high weakens,
which should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and
north-northwestward. The new forecast track is changed little from
the previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward
Islands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then
cross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h. The new track lies to the left
of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
ECMWF.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

An extreme hurricane threat is developing for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria will move through the Leeward Islands today.

The storm is expected to continue strengthening over the very warm waters of the northeast Caribbean, as it heads to the northwest.

Predicting the exact future strength is impossible, but there is no obvious reason why Maria couldn’t reach Category 4 or higher strength by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Everyone on these islands needs to fully prepare for all hurricane hazards including violent winds, torrential rain producing flooding and mudslides, and life-threatening storm surge on coastlines exposed to the wind blowing off the ocean. The storm surge will be worse than during Hurricane Irma.

Strong winds will arrive in the Virgin Islands as early as tomorrow morning and in Puerto Rico tomorrow afternoon. Maria is a much smaller storm than Irma, so the winds will ramp up relatively quickly once they start. The U.S. Virgin Islands, especially St. Croix, and Puerto Rico need to immediately prepare for a direct hit from an extreme hurricane.

After Maria passes Puerto Rico Wednesday night, the most likely path will take the center of the hurricane north of the Dominican Republic. How disrupted the circulation becomes over the Puerto Rican mountains, and whether it comes close enough to the extremely tall mountains in the D.R. and Haiti is uncertain, but the odds favor a strong hurricane moving near or over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday.

After that time, the future track gets fuzzier because developments with Hurricane Jose off the Northeast coast are important to where Maria goes. As of now, the consensus is that Jose, or what’s left of it at the end of the week, will linger off the Northeast, which would logically provide a path for Maria to turn north well offshore of Florida and possibly east of the Central Bahamas.
After that, the track is fraught with uncertainty, however. Besides the open question of how much the Caribbean mountains might weaken Maria, the position and strength of Jose could imaginably deflect Maria out to sea, or, if Jose is too weak, Maria could move close to or over the East Coast somewhere north of Florida.

The rule that says "forecasts made for storms in weak steering currents have more uncertainty" will apply in this case. Jose will be trapped in an area with light steering, and since Jose’s strength and location may well affect Maria, the uncertainty is compounded in Maria’s eventual track. Expect changes.

Needless to say, it is horrifying that the same islands in the northern Leewards, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas that were decimated by Hurricane Irma are going to hit again by a strong hurricane. It is hard to imagine the situation getting worse, but it likely will with more islands and many more people impacted by Maria.

..MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.

It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.

If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

Hurricane Maria has pounded Dominica with "widespread devastation" as it barrels toward St. Croix and threatens catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico.

Hurling winds of 160 mph (257 kph), Maria shredded the Dominica Prime Minister's house and left much of the island -- population 73,000 -- in ruins.
"Initial reports are of widespread devastation," Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said on Facebook.

"So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains."
A few hours earlier, the Prime Minister posted, "My roof is gone. I am at the complete mercy of the hurricane. House is flooding."

Incredible Category 5 HURRICANE MARIA crashed into the Caribbean Island of Dominica yesterday. We have to be fearful for what might have happened on that island and those surrounding it. Tonight, the ultra hurricane will begin its assault on the Virgin Islands and then move on to Puerto Rico, moving over or near those islands. St. Croix, the southernmost of the U.S. Virgin Islands, would seem to be at the highest risk in that chain, but all of the surrounding islands will feel the hurricane.

On Puerto Rico, extreme winds, tremendous flooding rains producing landslides, and deadly storm surge will attack the island beginning tonight into early tomorrow. Every possible hurricane-protection step is required for everyone on these islands.

Maria is a very small but extremely intense hurricane. Normally, this would mean that the devastating winds would move through relatively quickly, but Maria is a slow-mover. It will take all of Wednesday for the winds to clear Puerto Rico.

After Maria moves away on Thursday, there is high confidence it will track near or over the north shore of the Dominican Republic and then begin a turn to the north. It will move over or near the Turks and Caicos Islands at the southern end of the Bahamas about Friday.

Since Maria has a small-diameter eye, and small circulations are more susceptible to disruption by mountainous terrain, it is unclear how strong the storm will be when it emerges with its encounter with Puerto Rico and the D.R. This injects a bit of uncertainty into the future track, but the consensus is that the hurricane will turn to the north well east of Florida and most of the Bahamas.

There does not appear to be any threat to Florida from Maria, though I would prefer to wait until it emerges from its encounter with the mountains to be 100% sure.

There is still a question mark about possible impacts along the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England because of the possible influence of Jose on Maria’s track.

The eventual track of Maria up the East Coast is very dependent on the strength and track of Jose, which will be trapped in an area of slight steering currents off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast. It is expected to be weakening at that time, but how much is unknown.

If Jose stays relatively intact, it will help deflect Maria offshore and out to sea. If it dies out or moves away so it has very little influence, there is a greater chance that Maria will come close to or over the East Coast. This would not likely happen, however, until early to mid next week. So a lot can happen between now and then. Be aware.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 64.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES

------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight, cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
and then pass just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h)
with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

IND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in
portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands this evening,
and spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the Virgin
Islands at this time. Tropical storm conditions should begin
spreading over Puerto Rico within the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on
Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.