Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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https://vancouversun.com/pmn/business-p ... 1585501118

But that could change. If I were a gambling man, my money would be on a higher number. Not based on what I’d like to see, based on what I Am seeing in terms of both leadership and peoples’ behaviour.

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No for supporting trump. Because doing so is deplorable.

Dr. Fauci was on Television a few moments ago. He said those were model estimates based on "the absence of mitigation efforts". This probably fed into the decision to continue mitigation efforts until 30 April, to bring the pandemic under control.

Similar model prognostications were made about the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. At this point in time H1N1 infected 95 times more people in just the US than COVID19 has worldwide.

I don’t see the 100,000-200,000 scenario playing out.

Clearly, there have been stringent mitigation efforts in many places. Plus Trump extended the social distancing guidelines until April 30, though they are voluntary. (Most state guidelines in effect run through the first half of April, Texas’s run through April 3).

President Trump had a news conference a few minutes ago. Let me try and highlight what was said because I misspoke.

Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx have been consulting a number of models and the models are projecting a high mortality in the U.S.

Trump said he'd seen early estimates that 2.2 million people could have died if the government had done nothing in a worst-case scenario, so "if we can hold that down to 100,000" or less, it would be a "good job." Had the country simply ridden the virus "like a cowboy" and driven "that sucker right through," the president insisted, disaster would have unfolded.

Fauci said the April 30 extension came after he, Dr. Deborah Birx and other members of the task force had made the recommendation.

In response to a question at the briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, reiterated his estimate from earlier in the day that it remained possible that 100,000 to 200,000 people could die in the United States. "What we’re trying to do is not let that happen," he said, calling the extension of social-distancing guidelines "a wise and prudent decision." Over 2,300 people with the virus already have died in the U.S.

Source: Trump says coronavirus 'peak in death rate' likely in 2 weeks, extends social-distancing guidelines through April 30

I'm not comparing the symptoms of H1N1 to COVID19, but I know dire predictions were made about it at the time, including it being the next Spanish Flu. They pretty much have to go with worst case scenarios to avoid the risk of underestimating. And if it turns out to not be nearly that bad, they can say that was due to all the shutdowns and prolonged distancing. In the meantime there is still the possibility of an effective treatment and vaccine being developed.

It's not going to be that high, and they know that.

They're saying that number simply to make Trump's team look better in the end. For example, suppose the total deaths in the end is 37,000. Trump will say, "We protected America and saved hundreds of thousands of lives through hard work and dedication by our team of experts."

Right all the closed business, millions laid off and empty streets doesn't add up to anything because it's America. Or is it that we're not doing enough enemas?