Is it possible to tell if the covid-19 virus was man made?

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There is a big demand. And therefore supply-and-demand forces would motivate charlatans to create FAKE vaccines, for the logic-impaired to buy. That much is true.

But it doesnt follow logically that those forces would cause someone to create a real vaccine - but one that somehow is kept under wraps, but that you could get through "back channels". Vaccination development just doesnt work that way.

It takes a big pharmacy company, or a big university, or like that, to create a vaccine. And once they create it and do trials etc, then it takes other big institutions to manufacture the vaccines on a huge scale. And each break through would be public news.

Oh okay, but why isn't anyone inventing a bootleg vaccine, that they intend to release through backchannels?

I just explained that.

Why would they do that?

The only folks who have a hope of making a vaccine are big medical institutions which will need big outlays of capital to make it happen, and thus will need to earn the money back. So why "bootleg it"?. Are you imagining that the Mayo clinic, or John's Hopkins, or the Bayer Company, would decide to sell a vaccine they created by ...selling nickel bags of it in back allies of the bad part of town? I cant even imagine what you're talking about. You will have to walk me through it.

Oh it's just a lot of people are desperate to get rid to get vaccinated, so I thought that those people would be willing to pay for a vaccine, even if it's bootleg, or on the black market. Not people in a rough part of town, but I thought people from all over would be willing to pay for one.

Bootleg? A vaccine in ones wellies?

But how does that cause a vaccine to materialize- that would ONLY be available on the black market?

I dont see the logic of your chain of reasoning. A legitimate institution,like the Mayo Clinic, or the Bayer Company, makes the right breakthrough to make a vaccine... so why would the Mayo Clinic decided to only sell it through the black market....and not make itself even more famous by just openly making it available?

And (using your reasoning)why cant you get a cure for cancer through the black market? Or lupus, or a zillion other diseases? They all have desperate folks who pay money for a cure. And many folks with those diseases, or with children with those diseases, DO fall victim to charlatans who sell fake cures.

"Bootlegging" is an American term that got started during Prohibition for guys who sell liquor. Congress outlawed all alcholic beverages in America for the whole decade of the Twenties. So guys would sell booze by concealing flat flasks in their boots and sell it to you on the street (like you might buy bags of crack today). Then the term got generalized to mean anyone selling illegal hootch on every scale (like Al Capone)via smuggling. Not just guys who literally sold it out of their boot legs. Now it means any kind of trafficking in contraband.

Ironpony - There will inevitably be a “bootleg” vaccine someday, but the real one has to be invented first. Any that are out there for sale right now would likely not be effective in stopping the virus (like snake oil medicines of the 1800s) and may be even dangerous to consume. It may only stop the spread of the virus by killing the host in the process. Look, if someone came up to you wanting to sell you the elixir of life, would you take it without testing it? I hope the answer is no.

Viruses are much harder to control than regular chemicals. They have genetic coding that can be modified in ways that we cannot easily understand the effects due to their complexity. If you have ever studied protein structures (even simple ones), you would understand how truly complex they really are. As a chemist, I am used to working with small molecules that typically contain less than a hundred atoms. Some protein molecules can have over a million atoms, with the order explaining the functions. Mutations can occur naturally as well as artificially, so that adds to the issue.

Oh I didn't mean a company like the Mayo Clinic or the Bayer company.

I meant any chemist out there working on their own... Why wouldn't they try to beat the Mayo Clinic or the Bayer company to it, and try to get a vaccine out their as quick as possible, even if it means black market? Why are other chemists, not working on it, even if they would be doing it illegally?

Backyard chemists aren't known for their innovations in vaccine research. But if you'd like some funny coloured meth, they're usually pretty good for that.

If someone is skilled in that field they're likely working somewhere that develops vaccines already, that's why there's no black market off-brand vaccines being sold in dark alleyways.

That plus it costs a lot of money to properly set up a laboratory. Not every chemist or biochemist is rich (I am not personally wealthy). They are going to need some pretty specialized equipment to do the work correctly and that is already in high demand from other places working on the vaccine. The laboratory has to be in a pristine environment or there will be complications with the research results. Keeping the laboratory clean is much harder to do than it looks to be. If a new glovebox is needed, there goes $20,000 to $50,000+ cdepending on how many options it has. There is also big differences between chemists and biochemists that will determine who can do what in the laboratory. Also, not everybody is motivated by big money, some people work for the greater good.

Oh okay I thought big money would have been enough motivation to try, but I guess if the equipment would be too much...

Backyard chemists tend to not have much support from big business though, one would assume.

Making vaccines is long, and it's labor intensive, and it's capital intensive.

Takes a big institution to do it. And several such institutions around the world are racing to do it as we speak (much like NASA and its Soviet counterpart were racing to the Moon in the Sixties). A private person could not have just built moon landing vehicles in his own back yard in a bid to beat both NASA and the Soviets in 1969.

Even if one as able to make a working vaccine alone, it would take a long time to get federal approval after doing the testing. Sure, you could skip that part and then become a big target for the feds to go after. The feds would use an century old law that was put in place to prevent untested drugs and medicines from reaching the market. The punishment is both a large fine and several years in a federal prison.

If anyone becomes harmed by the product, they would be liable for the damages in the resulting lawsuits. The big pharmacy companies get hit with those occasionally for a product that had FDA approval, but had bad side effects that popped up later. The drug Zantac is an example, as it potentially created a cancer causing drug to form inside the body. Those type of lawsuits are big money makers for lawyers.