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Stargazer43
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22 Feb 2013, 12:47 am

I saw a news article saying that the gears are turning for a manned trip to Mars in 2018! When I first read the article I was pretty excited, but after reading further I honestly think it's a waste of time and money. Their plan is just to fly by the planet, not go in to orbit or land on it. In my opinion that doesn't really provide any benefit to us as a society, as our probes can already do that just fine. Perhaps it will get NASA or some other space program to get their act together and try to one-up this private company though! It just frustrates me to see proposed timelines such as "land on Mars by 2050", when we basically have the technological capability and know-how to go there today. I realize full well the challenges associated with all of it, but if you creep along at a snails pace like we have been since the 60s/70s you never really make much progress! Then again I do get a bit passionate about this topic because I really want to see us actually going places in space before I die, moon not included! So what are your thoughts?


http://news.yahoo.com/millionaire-space ... 22228.html



CornerPuzzlePieces
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22 Feb 2013, 4:07 am

Have you seen the stupid people we have on this planet?

No way.. we have a responsibility to keep them on the ground at all costs. :roll:


In all seriousness it's a cryin' shame but NASA is all but scrapped.. its down to a small group of people working on a tight budget with hardly any more room for innovation.

We still use chemical rockets for a "one time" shot there and back. It's still risky as all getup to be one of the people going.


It's a real downer but until half the population is wiped out by aliens most people couldn't care less about this "space" thing..



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22 Feb 2013, 7:17 am

I am also a bit impatient to see some real space travel happen. But I really should know better, because the sheer distances are no joke, and they have to be prepared to deal assorted hazards.
There is also no justification at the moment. There are so many problems on Earth, that it is hard to justify the humongous expense in return for mainly academic benefit. Personally, I would still spend it though, if it were up to me. :twisted:
People are always going to be in trouble one way or another. :roll:



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22 Feb 2013, 9:12 am

If a manned expedition reaches Mars by 2018, it will not be a U.S. mission. NASA is decrepit and corrupt and underfunded.

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22 Feb 2013, 11:32 am

Mars is very far away, and if you look at all that's gone wrong on other manned missions, then you don't need to be a genious to see that you'll probably get some kind of mechanical or electrical error with disasterous consequences if you were to send a spaceship to Mars in 2018. Almost every advanced digital technological invention today, had a primitive ancestor in 1969 as well; "rocket science" hasn't changed that much in the last 40 years.

Furthermore, we do not know the effects of long-term deprivation of gravity yet, let alone if someone can survive it for the one and a half years a two-way trip to Mars would require.

Lastly, NASA has an extremely tight budget. If they have to choose between something of great scientific value (eg. unmanned probes on Europa or the search for more exoplanets) or something that's merely cool, but of no great scientific value (building a hotel on the moon, a manned mission to mars, etc.), they'll chose the former. In the 1960's, they were under great pressure to land on the moon as quickly as possible because of a promise John F. Kennedy made to the American people, and because the USSR was also aiming for the moon.

The "deadline" for when man will walk on Mars has been pushed back several times; in 1969, they said the year 2000; in 2000, they said 2020; now they're saying 2050. Don't be dissapointed if it never happens in our lifetime.



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22 Feb 2013, 11:59 am

Kurgan wrote:
Furthermore, we do not know the effects of long-term deprivation of gravity yet, let alone if someone can survive it for the one and a half years a two-way trip to Mars would require.


A couple of months ago there was a guy on tv talking about a one-way trip to Mars. The austronauts would then try to create a permanent base there.



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22 Feb 2013, 12:09 pm

trollcatman wrote:
Kurgan wrote:
Furthermore, we do not know the effects of long-term deprivation of gravity yet, let alone if someone can survive it for the one and a half years a two-way trip to Mars would require.


A couple of months ago there was a guy on tv talking about a one-way trip to Mars. The austronauts would then try to create a permanent base there.


I'm well aware of that. :) A guy in Norway gained fame after he volunteered for it. It'll stil take 7-8 months to reach the planet, the planet itself has very little gravity (probably not enough to prevent significant waste of muscle tissue) though--and because of Mars' thin atmosphere and the fact that the planet is geologically dead, the radiation will finish off those that the lack of gravity didn't kill quickly enough.



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22 Feb 2013, 12:29 pm

Pffft. To pull such a deed off, at least by NASA's hand, they'd have to 'creatively abuse' the DoD's bloated budget. The same way I'd 'creatively abuse' the army into building a maglev at their expense since they are basically the nation's hired goons.

I'd expect the EU flag to be planted by a man first upon mars.


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Stargazer43
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22 Feb 2013, 12:29 pm

Kurgan wrote:
Furthermore, we do not know the effects of long-term deprivation of gravity yet, let alone if someone can survive it for the one and a half years a two-way trip to Mars would require.


There are already designs out there for ships with artificial gravity, that are more than feasible with current technology. It would just take a pretty large upfront investment (larger than anyone's probably willing to make right now) to complete their design and construction. But we do know how to do it and we have the technology to do it, it just doesn't seem to be a big priority at the moment since we typically only send people up there for 6-month increments. And I disagree about going to Mars just being cool, I see it as more of a stepping stone for exploration into the rest of the solar system. Plus. it gives the possibility of returning samples for further analysis here on Earth. I'm sure they could design a probe to do that too, but none of those projects have made it too far yet.

As for safety, it really boils down largely to how much you over or under design the system. Of course there are always situations that go beyond our control or anticipations, but sufficiently large safety factors can mitigate the vast majority of those occurances.



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22 Feb 2013, 1:18 pm

“The surface of the Earth is the shore of the cosmic ocean. On this shore, we've learned most of what we know. Recently, we've waded a little way out, maybe ankle-deep, and the water seems inviting. Some part of our being knows this is where we came from. We long to return, and we can, because the cosmos is also within us. We're made of star stuff. We are a way for the cosmos to know itself.” ~Carl Sagan, Cosmos

We can only further our understanding of the universe through direct observation.


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ruveyn
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22 Feb 2013, 4:14 pm

Kurgan wrote:
Mars is very far away, and if you look at all that's gone wrong on other manned missions, then you don't need to be a genious to see that you'll probably get some kind of mechanical or electrical error with disasterous consequences if you were to send a spaceship to Mars in 2018. Almost every advanced digital technological invention today, had a primitive ancestor in 1969 as well; "rocket science" hasn't changed that much in the last 40 years.

Furthermore, we do not know the effects of long-term deprivation of gravity yet, let alone if someone can survive it for the one and a half years a two-way trip to Mars would require.

Lastly, NASA has an extremely tight budget. If they have to choose between something of great scientific value (eg. unmanned probes on Europa or the search for more exoplanets) or something that's merely cool, but of no great scientific value (building a hotel on the moon, a manned mission to mars, etc.), they'll chose the former. In the 1960's, they were under great pressure to land on the moon as quickly as possible because of a promise John F. Kennedy made to the American people, and because the USSR was also aiming for the moon.

The "deadline" for when man will walk on Mars has been pushed back several times; in 1969, they said the year 2000; in 2000, they said 2020; now they're saying 2050. Don't be dissapointed if it never happens in our lifetime.


A manned mission to Mars is like controlled nuclear fusion. Always 20-30 years in the future.

ruveyn



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22 Feb 2013, 4:29 pm

ruveyn wrote:
Kurgan wrote:
Mars is very far away, and if you look at all that's gone wrong on other manned missions, then you don't need to be a genious to see that you'll probably get some kind of mechanical or electrical error with disasterous consequences if you were to send a spaceship to Mars in 2018. Almost every advanced digital technological invention today, had a primitive ancestor in 1969 as well; "rocket science" hasn't changed that much in the last 40 years.

Furthermore, we do not know the effects of long-term deprivation of gravity yet, let alone if someone can survive it for the one and a half years a two-way trip to Mars would require.

Lastly, NASA has an extremely tight budget. If they have to choose between something of great scientific value (eg. unmanned probes on Europa or the search for more exoplanets) or something that's merely cool, but of no great scientific value (building a hotel on the moon, a manned mission to mars, etc.), they'll chose the former. In the 1960's, they were under great pressure to land on the moon as quickly as possible because of a promise John F. Kennedy made to the American people, and because the USSR was also aiming for the moon.

The "deadline" for when man will walk on Mars has been pushed back several times; in 1969, they said the year 2000; in 2000, they said 2020; now they're saying 2050. Don't be dissapointed if it never happens in our lifetime.


A manned mission to Mars is like controlled nuclear fusion. Always 20-30 years in the future.

ruveyn


Indeed. :) Murphy's law is still alive and well.



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24 Feb 2013, 5:32 am

Until we figure out how to get into space cheaply. and I mean by 2 orders of magnitude cheaper. We are never gonna put a man on the moon. let alone put a man on mars. chemical rockets are horribly expensive and horribly inefficient. did you know that it take 15x more weight in fuel then in payload weight. It's take 3000lbs of fuel just to put a 200lb man into orbit. If you ask me. I think when the ISS is retired. We might just stop putting men into space all together. Don't believe me? Take a look at what happen to the Concord.



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24 Feb 2013, 9:22 am

LupaLuna wrote:
Until we figure out how to get into space cheaply. and I mean by 2 orders of magnitude cheaper. We are never gonna put a man on the moon. let alone put a man on mars. chemical rockets are horribly expensive and horribly inefficient. did you know that it take 15x more weight in fuel then in payload weight. It's take 3000lbs of fuel just to put a 200lb man into orbit. If you ask me. I think when the ISS is retired. We might just stop putting men into space all together. Don't believe me? Take a look at what happen to the Concord.


Antimatter propulsion engines are entirely feasible, much more powerful than conventional rockets and require significantly less weight in the form of fuel (10 grams is enough to reach Mars in one month). With that being said, antimatter is extremely f*cking expensive to produce (presently 62.5 trillion USD per gram), so until we're able to produce this more cheaply, we're stuck on this planet or whatever is trapped in it's gravitational field.

It's not a question of if, but a question of when. However, Mars is as out of reach to humans today as the moon was to Jules Verne or PS4 graphics were to the Zuze Z3 scientists.



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24 Feb 2013, 1:53 pm

Kurgan wrote:

Antimatter propulsion engines are entirely feasible, much more powerful than conventional rockets and require significantly less weight in the form of fuel (10 grams is enough to reach Mars in one month). With that being said, antimatter is extremely f*cking expensive to produce (presently 62.5 trillion USD per gram), so until we're able to produce this more cheaply, we're stuck on this planet or whatever is trapped in it's gravitational field.

It's not a question of if, but a question of when. However, Mars is as out of reach to humans today as the moon was to Jules Verne or PS4 graphics were to the Zuze Z3 scientists.


Ummm... by what definition of feasible?

we've managed to contain 300 anti-matter atoms for just over 16 minutes... Couple that with the fact that every year they create about a billionth of a gram of antimatter and only capture 10 percent of that... add to that it has cost several hundred million swiss francs to make this antimatter...

At this point, antimatter is a completely UNFEASIBLE technologically as a fuel source.

The redbull parachute jump provides us with a far more economic possibility... edge of atmospher via lighter than air source (balloon, dirigible, or the like and orbital insertion via chemical rocket. From there, a more efficient engine such as a vasimir or ion engine coupled with gravitational slingshotting.


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Stargazer43
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24 Feb 2013, 2:09 pm

Yeah, even if we had all the antimatter in the world, containment is a huge issue. Even if you have a really well-designed containment system, the slightest error and everything goes "BOOM!". And by boom I mean majorly so lol. It's funny you should mention the red bull thing, because as I was watching it I was thinking the exact same thing...why not just use a balloon and start ignition from way up there? He got up to like 125,000 ft in the video, that's a pretty good head start! Of course I'm no aerospace engineer so I'm sure there is a good reason why they don't do that...I can almost assure you that they've at least thrown the idea around. I have heard talk that a space elevator is being planned and is in the design phases now, but I'll believe it when I see it. It would be pretty amazing if they're successful but I still think that it's a long shot until we have some significant technological advancements, particularly in materials science.