Place Your Oscar Bets Here, Winner Takes The Pot!

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ok I'm lousy at this game but I play it every year nonetheless. the pot is of course imaginary but what the hell- being right is a reward in itself!

my bets:

Actor in a leading role- Mickey Rourke
Actor in a supporting role- Heath Ledger
Actress in a leading role- though one... Maryl Streep?
Actress in a supporting role- no idea so far, will come back to that one
Animated feature film- Wall-E
Art Direction- ...?
Cinematography- ...?
Directing- Danny Boyle (a bit optimistic, but meh)
Documentary feature- Encounters at the end of the world
Film editing- ...?
Foreign Language- The Class
Music- Slumdog Millionaire
Best Picture- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (NOT my personal favourite)
Adapted screenplay- Frost/Nixon
Original Screenplay- Happy-go-Lucky

(I might change my mind about some and edit the ones I'm not yet sure about)

anyone else wants to gamble?

I just hope they give it to Ledger.

I'd play, but I'm looking at the list of nominees and realizing that I haven't seen the vast majority of them. That said, I loved Wall-E, and have very high hopes for The Wrestler, but haven't seen it yet.

this is gambling, you don't need to know anything about them

This year is a truly rotten collection of films (IMHO)....
and I haven't seen half of the nominees anyway...

http://www.oscar.com/nominees/?pn=nominees

So...

Best Film: Benjamin Button (the sort-of Bicentennial Man remake - ok... I'm being harsh)
Best Actor: None
Best Actress: None
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (the only bright spot in the dark movie)
Best Supporting Actress: None

Best Animated Feature Film: Wall-E
Best Art Direction: Benjamin Button

Best Cinematography: None - If you couldn't nominate Australia ... forget it.
Best Costume Design: Australia

Best Directing: None (Nothing outstanding that I've seen this year)

Best Visual Effects: The Iron Man (because it's the only category it's named in and I think it's better than batman)
I'd have preferred to have Hellboy II... but that's hollywood for you.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire (Haven't seen it yet, but it's the insider darling so that's probably how it's going to go down.)
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke (if not, then probably Sean Penn though)
Best Actress: Kate Winslet (GOD, she deserves this! Please please please please, go Kate!! !)
Best supporting actor: Heath Ledger
Best supporting actress: no idea
Best Animated film: Wall-E (duh)


...and I'll just jump to the only other category I'm really rooting for this year other than best actress-

Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonough, for In Bruges (This film really really earns this, but it is foreign, released earlier in the year, and little known so it might unfairly lose out. Martin McDonough is already a well known playwright, but this is his first film. The academy has already ignored the film for its actors' performances though, despite the fact that Colin Farrell won the golden globe this movie.)

The Oscars and Cannes don't really appeal. I don't really value the Oscar panel’s opinion tbh. They have a long history of getting it wrong especially with foreign films and can be highly politicised. Case and point Gomorrah isn't even nominated as best Foreign Language Film, I mean I wonder if Waltz with Bashir has even got a chance now.

It is just an industry love-in. I value film festivals like LFF, where the film lovers vote.

agreed, but every excuse for gambling is good for me

I was surprised The Reader was the Winslet film picked for best picture/best actress. Haven't seen either but heard more praise for her in Revolutionary Road.

WTF? 50's surburban dsytopia movie gets snubbed for a Holocaust movie this season(in the year of the great suburban housing bubble crash/Great Depression II) when there's been a backlash against the overdone Holocaust genre. See A.O. Scott in Nytimes on Nov.23 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/movies/23scot.html Amazingly tonedeaf choice.

Rourke gets best male/Slumdog Millionaire is a shoe-in for best pic. And no love for Gran Torino by the Academy? I'll be less inclined to watch this than the Arizone Cardinals superbowl.

I don't think I quite forgave the oscars for letting "the lives of others" (which was very good) triumph over "Pan's Labyrinth" (which was brilliant).

... and don't get me started on Annie Hall vs Star Wars: A New Hope. Annie Hall was good, but not that good.

The razzies are usually a bit closer - though I don't like them nominating Indy... there were much worse films around.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader or Angelina Jolie Changeling (the former because she deserves one after so many years, and the latter because I thoroughly enjoyed that movie)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, Doubt
Best Original Song: "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire. Written by A.R. Rahman and Maya "M.I.A." Arulpragasam (i've been an M.I.A. fan for five years. This will stop the idiots who are calling her a one hit wonder because of "Paper Planes" dead in their tracks).
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Best Animated Feature: Wall-E

And now for the stuff that only film critics like myself pay attention to:
Best Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Editing: Frost/Nixon
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Best Art Direction: Changeling
Best Costume Design: Australia
Best Makeup: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: The Dark Knight
Best Sound Mixing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Foreign Film: The Baader Meinhoff Complex (Germany) (it's the only one of these i've actually seen)
Best Documentary Short: I've not seen any of these
Best Live Action Short: I've not seen any of these
Best Animated Short: I've not seen any of these

I completely agree. I've heard that this is a sure way of making her lose already- just like a couple years back when Leo Dicaprio would've been guaranteed an oscar for his performance in the Departed, but got nominated for the Blood Diamond instead.

Maybe you just don't like dialogue/relationship based films. There's a reason Annie Hall is one of the only comedies to ever win best picture.

Believe me, I think Annie Hall is brilliant and I do like dialogue/relationship based films.

I just have a problem with the Oscars deliberately avoiding Genre films.

I'd have hoped that the Best Picture would be the most memorable one.

Case in point....

Oscars 1931... Outstanding Production Winner and Nominees.
Cimarron (RKO Radio)
East Lynne (Fox)
The Front Page (Caddo, United Artists)
Skippy (Paramount Publix)
Trader Horn (MGM)

So, how many people have seen any of these films? How many think that they're masterpieces of film, worthy also of best direction?

Then... who has seen Frankenstein 1931. Is there a reason why it isn't on the list? Isn't it a more ground-breaking film than the others.

Is the bride - considered by many to be a much better film - really so unworthy that it didn't even get nominated in 1935? when the best picture went to Mutiny on the Bounty (MGM)?

I see what you mean. But Frankenstein really was at the forefront of a new genre of film, so I can understand it being passed over as there was not enough criteria for the genre at the time. Another point is that while the impact a film makes on the industry is indeed important, you can't always predict that in the course of the year when it was made. While Frankenstein is indeed a great ground-breaking film, certain aspects of it really didn't work so well- the style of all the human lead actors was incohesive and somewhat over the top, and acting style was something that could be judged in the 1930s.


One problem I think the academy really does have is the change in screening rules that started in 1998- the year Shakespeare in Love won over Saving Private Ryan. That was the first year voters were given videos to screen in their private homes, instead of having to view the films as they were meant to be seen in the theaters.

This practice strikes me as terribly unfair- there are certain films (like Saving Private Ryan) where you have to see it on a big screen to get the full impact. Shakespeare in Love doesn't require a big screen, and this gave it an unfair advantage. More epic films have really been ignored since 1998 with the exception of Lord of the Rings, and many believe these films would have been passed over by the academy as well were it not for their immense popularity.

I thought this was already thrown out.

It's a shameful practice particularly when applied to big films.

IMHO, You should not be able to vote on a category unless you've seen all the nominees. I don't have a problem with indie films being provided on DVD because it's often hard to find them being shown elsewhere but big budget films... providing them on DVD - often before the dvd is available - simply encourages piracy.

I remember seeing someone waving LOTR 2 around my office at work. The copy was an academy award knock-off.