whatamievendoing wrote:
It is dying, though.
No, it isnt.
People have a very odd concept of "dying" when it comes to stuff like this. "Dying" would be "servers practically untouched by anyone". A game that's gotten so low that it's near shutting down. And by "shutting down" I mean "gone forever", as that's what happens when an online game dies.
This? Ye gods, no. Are the numbers what they were originally? Of course not. Did anyone EXPECT them to be? ....Of course not. Again, this "tapering off" happens with every game. EVERY game. Not just mobile, not just online games. Not just AAA games (even indie games go through this). ALL of them. The reason the initial "burst" of players is created in the first place is that you have a monstrous number of people (comparatively) that come in on day one and all start at the very same time. This is NOT normal data. When a game has stablilized (as in, the initial burst has died down, meaning that those who werent going to stay with it long have now already left), it will be both gaining and losing players at the same time: That's where "player retention" comes in. It's not about grabbing a giant group of players at the start and keeping them forever... that's impossible. No game does that. Not even LoL. It's about CONTINUOUSLY grabbing new players, and increasing the percentage of them that then stay for more than 30 days. Even LoL must do this, and so must Pokemon Go.
Even something like Candy Crush went through all of this. It started with that absolute giant explosion of players, same as Go had (though as this didnt involve real-world insanity, it was a bit quieter). Players were often drowned in invites from other players, because so many were going at it. But after a time, that burst wore off, and it has now stabilized. That burst wont return unless they release an actual direct sequel at some point.
One reason why people have this idea that Go is dying is because the SIZE of the initial burst was abnormal (whereas the size of the stabilized base isnt, for a major mobile title). Most games dont get that. The fact that it was a genuine Nintendo product on mobile was probably what made that burst so enormous. However, the size doesnt matter in the long run when it comes to the sales burst at the start: It'll stabilize after a time, utterly regardless of that bit.
Really, that's just how this sort of thing works. It's not just in direct sales either; this sort of thing is also seen in stuff like Kickstarters, for instance. And it's also not just in this one industry. This is the same sort of thing that even happens with TV shows (where it's usually even faster... even for shows that stay really popular for a long time). It's something that's always constantly considered by people like marketing execs.
In the case of Go, the unusual problem they face though is winter itself. Hard to get people outside, after all, when "outside" is basically a huge block of ice. Of course, not all of the world experiences that frosty season in the same way.
It'll be months yet before anyone REALLY knows how Go is doing in the long run.