Russian army has invaded the Crimea

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I just heard on the news Putin wants to work it out and resolve it peacefully. He's aiming for that Nobel Prize..

That man is not just reckless, he's clearly delusional.

Nope, he is rational, he just works from a very different strategic calculus. He is a cold blooded killer but he knows the risks here and he is gambling that we won't do anything to him about this. I suspect he is right.

I was actually referring to his notion that he could be awarded the Nobel Prize.

Fair call.

And Angela Merkel, after having a phone conversation with Putin, had reported to Obama that the Russian president was losing touch with reality.

I doubt he is. He is winning at the moment so I doubt he cares what Merkel thinks. I spent a summer going through Saddam's cabinet files, he lost touch with reality, he honestly though we weren't going to attack Baghdad. His view was that he had won the first war by staring down the Americans, he reasoned within that assumption and as a result never connected with our strategic reasoning. Putin has his own views about his country's place in the universe and he wants the Crimea for himself, he will most likely get it unless things dramatically change soon.

Just before reading your latest post, I've been listening to The Daily Show, in which Jon Stewart interviewed an expert of Russian history and current affairs who maintains if anything, Putin has actually lost. Russia moved without UN okay, losing their veto power in this situation, and losing any international credibility they had had. On top of that, despite Russian military strength, their attempted incursions further into Ukraine in fact was turned away by the Ukrainian military, containing Putin's forces in the Crimea.

When did Merkel comment about Putin being out of touch with reality? Just recently or a while ago?

I think US media are over exaggerating the issues a bit. Merkel phoned with Obama, after she phoned with Putin, and mentioned that Putin was actually not reasonable and was acting as actually living in another world.

Out of the view of western european countries, that since second worldwar have learned to solve their problems mostly through diplomacy, thats quiet understandable. Actually, beside all the propaganda, since the fall of UDSSR, russia was like the USA, a normal trading partner with its own habbits and politics, but in the end someone you could normally trade with, negotiate with, or visit for vacations without any problems. So they acted more like a modern western country. So that actual behavior they show, that is more of typical african warlord style, simply is a bit weird, and I think what Merkel meant was, that Putin cannot suspect (as he seems) that on one side, Russia will be treated and appreciated on eyehigh as a normal western economy when it comes to trade-contracts, Visas, business-rules, ... but on the other side behave like some african warlod, that simply acts on his own, without caring for anyone else. O_o Either you wanna do your stuff entirely, but then you cant expect to be treated as a partner, or you are partner to others, but then that means to negotiate as well about your politics with them.

Still it will be interesting to know, how far Germany would really go. They are one of the biggest economies in EU and so will have an major impact on any negotiations between russia and EU. They have started to change their energy supply towards renewable forms, but compared to other european countries they are still quiet depending on import of fossil ressources for their economy. There are other supply routes, as well that they have some reserves for emergency, but I think they will not last for a long time. (Maybe some months.)

So EU can damage russians economy by cancelling trade- and businesscontracts, but russia can as well damage EU (focused german) economy by cancelling energy supply. (But would by doing so as well damage themselves, because ressources they dont export are ressources they dont get payed for.) Most important thing will be, to prevent "real" war to be starting. (So actually occupying another countries territory and threating its army IS definitely an act of war, but at least actually there is a status quo and no bullets and rockets flying.)

Just the other day.

Considering President Obama has a Peace Prize and President Putin is nominated for one, they both have a diplomatic responsibility to avoid war otherwise it's just meaningless garbage.

Russia does not recognize the Ukraine government that did not follow the EU lead agreement, but took power by force of arms.

The Navel Base lease agreement runs till 2043, gives the Russians the right to protect it, and to station 25,000 troops there. Troop numbers are below that.

This is not some inturnal affair, subject to change, this is a Treaty between Nations.

It was part of the agreement for an independant Ukraine. Give up all atomic weapons, and allow the Russian Navel Base to continue.

The Crimea has been an Autonomus Republic in union with Ukraine. They have their own Parliment.

The acts of Ukraine to abolish the local government and appoint their own breaks the agreement of Union.

After the overthrow of the elected government in Kiev, breaking the peace agreement the EU signed, they now want to abolish all elected local governments, and appoint their own.

A National Election was to be held in December, it has been moved up to May 25, with restrictions on who can run.

Abolishing local elected governments 90 days before an election does not pass the smell test.

I doubt the Constitution of Ukraine allows these moves.

Part of Russia's right to defend it's base was maintaining close and working relationships with local government.

They have a mutual defense agreement.

If Kiev can abolish elected governments, their next step would be to cancel the lease on the Russian Navel Base.

The only armed rebelion in Ukraine is by the Ultura Nationalists in Kiev.

The country is at peace, the current government in Kiev wil not survive the next election.

The current government doesn't seem to have survival as their primary objective. They seem to just want to hold it together until they can even HAVE elections.

Turchinov seems like an ok-enough guy. However, I suspect the REAL leaders are the party leaders as opposed to whoever is actually in an elected position. There seems to me more a need for cheerleaders among the people than authorities OVER the people.

The coup regime says they want to sign the EU deal as soon as possible... typical. In the Shock Doctriine, it was mentioned how US officials were telling Yeltsin to implement far-reaching and irreversible changes in the immediate aftermath of his military coup when he killed hundreds of people in the streets of Moscow and shelled parliament, and followed this up by banning opposition media. Today, they want this coup regime, of which only two of 19 cabinet ministers are from the south-east half of the country, to implement far-reaching and fundamental decisions about the future of the country. In a situation like this, Russian tanks in Kiev would be a better outcome for democracy.

This was not a revolution, it was a geopolitical power play that is ongoing and Russia has joined the battle... the battle started by the West. If the world is destroyed, we know who to blame... and that is not Russia.