Trump indictment - what does this mean for the US?
Sort of an obvious topic, I'm surprised nobody else has mentioned it in PP&R.
Let's accept the premise this could mean that Trump would actually be in Federal Prison 17 months from now when the next General Election takes place. Everything I see on the Web seems to point to Trump as the strong favorite for winning that election (although I think he could lose the popular vote quite badly, but what does that matter anyway?).
So he becomes President and pardons himself, walks out of prison basking in the adulation of his supporters, and then? What sort of country will the US be going forward?
Whatever you may think of Trump's policies, the fact is that the US has always prided itself on being the sort of place where that sort of thing doesn't happen. I mean people being put in prison then rehabilitated and going on to head the government. Admittedly Nelson Mandela spent many years in prison, but the government that put him there was internationally condemned for practicing the exact opposite of democracy or at best being a gross violator of human rights. Whereas the US has always advertised itself as a "beacon of democracy" and apparently a lot of people outside the US buy into this, at least from what I've been told by some immigrants.
To put it bluntly, will the US soon be seen as a "banana republic" by most of the world? And how will this impact American influence? Will Russia, China, or India for that matter, care what side of any given international conflict the US takes?
Trump has gotten away with so much already--if another White person had committed 10% of his crimes, or if a Black person had committed 1% of his crimes, then that person would now be locked away.
I'll believe he's going to prison when he actually goes to prison.
So far, I'm seeing this as just more free publicity for him. Donations to Trump just keep pouring in.
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goldfish21
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95% trump goes to jail, Biden wins, American democracy continues and there are a minority of fringe right wing lunatics that have mental breaks and can't accept reality and end up lashing out violently - possibly at a slightly higher rate for a while than others amongst the minority of fringe right wing lunatic domestic terrorists that have been attacking fellow Americans for decades.
5% trump goes to jail, wins the election, pardons himself.. and then perhaps there's a possibility that American democracy ceases to exist and those fringe loonies take pride in carrying out disgusting acts against various margninalized groups that trumplestiltskin has taken pleasure in trolling for decades.. non-whites, lgbt people, disabled people etc - same ol' nazi playbook list of people to other, dehumanize, criminalize, attack, shut out of society, jail or murder etc.
But I'd rate it at a 95% chance that the US justice system as well as democratic system of government prevail and in the long run there will simply be a bunch of bitter maga losers whining about how they lost just like their incestors lost the civil war and had to give up overtly enslaving black people and switch to working as police & in the private for profit prison system to carry on their disgusting ways. Hopefully most of them are shut out from procreation and their looney toons q-anon beliefs die off with them.
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"So you think they've got Trump right where they want him, eh? Wait till you hear what this former federal prosecutor turned high-end defense attorney has to say"
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-i ... een-cannon
If you think former President Donald Trump is finally, really, actually, but for real this time, about to face justice — hold on just one moment.
He may have an easy out.
Yes, it sounds like this new indictment against Trump is a pretty strong one. Even Fox News's top legal commenter thinks so. He called it "extremely damning." And we're not seeing nearly as much skepticism as we saw after New York attorney general Alvin Bragg's indictment, either.
But one former federal prosecutor turned high-end defense attorney, Ken White, sees a quick path out of trouble for Trump.
He said all Trump needs is a judge completely in the tank for him — a judge who is willing to sacrifice their reputation in order to protect him.
And guess what?
That's what it looks like Trump is going to get: Judge Aileen Cannon...
...White says that there are usually a "number of factors" that smooth even partisan judges out and move them "into the middle."
He listed a few: "Their relationship with other colleagues, their reputation, their hopes to be elevated to a higher bench, their place in history, you know, cocktail parties, opinion of lawyers, all that sort of thing. "
"But sometimes," White said, "Judges just don't give a s**t and Judge Cannon's behavior in this case in the past was several very long strides in this direction of don't give a s**t."
White suspects Cannon may be imagining what she might be able to get out of a second Trump presidency.
"You have a situation where it is not even remotely difficult to imagine: Her acquitting Trump, Trump getting elected, Trump elevating her to the 11th Circuit or the Supreme Court. He would totally do it. His fans would be completely fine with it. And it would be just a giant middle finger to the country. And I mean, he would do it."
So how, exactly, could Cannon protect Trump and end this case against him in a moment?
"She can delay things forever by making rulings that can't be appealed. She can make rulings that while they don't tank the case, make it very difficult, like excluding evidence by saying evidence was wrongfully gathered," White said. "And that can be something that has a very unfavorable standard on appeal."
"So, for instance, if she started to rule all these statements Trump made, 'that's too prejudicial. It's unfair. I'm keeping it out.' If that goes up on appeal, that's an abuse of discretion standard. And normally, you can't appeal it before the case."
And Cannon could go even further than that, White said.
"Most drastically, she can do things that can't be repaired. Once a jury is impaneled, she can dismiss the case. And there's not a goddamn thing anyone can do about it. Double Jeopardy attaches; you're done. She can grant a motion for directed verdict of acquittal after the government's case. And then we're done. You can't be retried, can't be reviewed. It's over."...
The cable news channels are nonstop about Trump--as if there is absolutely nothing else going on in the world. And, he'll probably get out of it.
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CNN Video - Expert explains what happens if Trump wins
What are the chances Trump or another MAGA wins in 2024? Too high for my comfort.
If he is convicted or acquitted there will be violence of some sort. For a conviction because most of the January 6 rioters have or will be prosecuted the number of incidences of revenge terrorism will be less than expected but those incidents will be catastrophic. A lot of ex-military types that know what they're doing.
If Trump skates at minimum a repeat of the summer of 2020. Most of those rioters not only did skate but were excused if not celebrated.
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goldfish21
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Cannon has already shown she’s trump above the law. She might actually pull some bs to get him off.
I doubt trump has the votes to get elected again. Not after all this crap. Even if every maga votes, even more people will vote against trump. They might not Want Biden, but they’ll re-elect him just to keep the USA going.
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I doubt trump has the votes to get elected again. Not after all this crap. Even if every maga votes, even more people will vote against trump. They might not Want Biden, but they’ll re-elect him just to keep the USA going.
I am not so sure about that.
General election polls - FiveThirtyEight
I would not take those polls at face value, there is still a long way to go. What could happen to Trump is obvious. For Biden besides the age issue, some other bad thing(s) could happen such as we get our ass handed to us by China because we don't have the munitions needed because we are using them to help Ukraine. The polls should be a caution flag about being too confident. But if 8 years of wrong predictions that this time Trump is done does not dent confidence, nothing can.
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Hard to see many people who voted for Biden in 2020 turning around and saying “yeah actually having thought about it I now support Trump, that insurrection and endangering national security really endeared me to him”.
Always a chance of course but I think predictions of Trump being “heavily favoured” are well off-base.
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Always a chance of course but I think predictions of Trump being “heavily favoured” are well off-base.
You and I are allowed to agree on something once in a blue moon I suppose.
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Agreed, but there could easily be changes in who is more motivated to go out and vote. If the right wingers keep getting more and more fanatical, while most other people just feel more and more overwhelmed to the point of paralysis, then Trump will win.
This is one of the reasons why Republicans like to make it harder for people to vote.
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Agreed, but there could easily be changes in who is more motivated to go out and vote. If the right wingers keep getting more and more fanatical, while most other people just feel more and more overwhelmed to the point of paralysis, then Trump will win.
This is one of the reasons why Republicans like to make it harder for people to vote.
Another problem is that 18-29 year olds have the lowest voter turnout of all age groups. This is why the GOP was able to reclaim the House, despite all the talk of "Roevember". Raphael Warnock and John Fetterman won with only razor-thin margins in their respective Senate bids.
And if mail-in voting were widely available in 2020, the young folks could have flipped Florida and possibly even Texas.
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The Trump Indictment Means Another Criminal is Being
Apprehended By the Laws and Orders of Justice to Keep
Democracy Alive And At Least Breathing For A While Longer
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Agreed, but there could easily be changes in who is more motivated to go out and vote. If the right wingers keep getting more and more fanatical, while most other people just feel more and more overwhelmed to the point of paralysis, then Trump will win.
This is one of the reasons why Republicans like to make it harder for people to vote.
You are right. An election where both candidates are widely unpopular is very unpredictable and the stay at homes become a crucial factor.
Right now the left is on the defensive and is still confused about how to respond to the rights growing fanaticism and their being better at using “woke” tactics then the wokes themselves. At some point as occurred when Trump was elected the left in reaction will become more fanatical. At that point Mona you get your wish because woke will become dated and I would start using another word
In an earlier post I said this
If Trump skates at minimum a repeat of the summer of 2020. Most of those rioters not only did skate but were excused if not celebrated.
The above article reminded me I was very negligent in ignoring how the right would react to a Trump victory. The January 6th insurrectionists will be pardoned. And that likely will be the case no matter which Republican is elected President. The MAGA’s will know not only won’t they be held accountable, but they would know the the President is behind them and would have every right to believe the American public which had just reelected Trump or an enabler is behind them. Not only will be a massive increase the amount and lethality of MAGA terrorism but people will feel free to beat up people whose opinion they do not like.
What has saved us since 2020 is law enforcement and the courts. Those institutions would be very dispirited knowing what is the point knowing the people you arrest and prosecute are going to be pardoned. What might mitigate some of this is that blue state and local prosecutors will do everything in their power to keep things away from the Feds.
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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 11 Jun 2023, 2:57 pm, edited 5 times in total.
