The Truth AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH: 2016 Election

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a lot of his supporters will be singing the blues not too long after he wins and proceeds to ruin things for the 99%.

Monmouth University are generally seen as the most accurate pollsters (obviously they can't compare to FiveThirtyEight when it comes to prediction) and they've found that only 79% of Republicans say they will vote for Trump. 92% of Democrats will vote for Clinton.

Scarily, Trump has a 2% lead on Clinton amongst independent voters. In the seven "swing states", Clinton has a substantial advantage.

Trump's best chance is if Clinton starts making Trump-sized gaffes. Not the sort of thing that partisans make a fuss over while everyone else ignores them, things on the scale of Trump's open racism. The gap is likely to close as we move away from the conventions but it is too big for Trump to have much chance unless things go badly wrong for Clinton, and there's been no sign of that so far.

Hillary got a bump from the convention and is benefiting from funky methodology(huge oversampling of Democrats and old people), Republicans tend to underpoll and Trump could be an extreme version of that with people speculating about a reverse Bradley effect.(basically people hesitant to state their true intention to pollers) A lot of time in between now and the election, I said this after the conventions too. The polls will narrow, the GOP is in the advantage as far as the issues and economic outlook, Hillary's corruption issues will speak for themselves. Trump will win independents, he'll win the overwhelming majority of Republicans, he'll take a chunk of the Democratic electorate, and will bring people out to the polls that usually don't vote. Public opinion can shift fast, these polls are very fluid and none were giving Brexit a chance 2-3 months out.

You already see the polls with Trump within a couple points, soon they'll be tied, then Trump will take a point of so lead, we've been here before. These media companies are desperately trying to craft a narrative for their corporate overlords but there is a far bigger credibility gap than they know which is why none of this sticks. Trump's campaign shake up is a good one since I think he'll be more focused on staying on message. Manafort played the role he was originally brought in to do, he was brought in to wrangle the delegates and make sure there was no floor fights at the convention which he did.

Hillary is going to be destroyed in the debates, I am still thinking she thinks of a reason to pull out since I don't think she could withstand the onslaught mentally or physically at this point. Polls have been wrong this entire time, I'm not going to all the sudden think they have credibility when they've been so thoroughly discredited. If the media could not destroy Trump up until this point, why would it succeed now? It won't.

Uhm, you must have not really delved into Brexit to notice that it was actually close... way closer than this election, both sides frequently overtook each other whereas only rarely does one here. You want him focused on staying on message? Good luck. The media isn't destroying him, no, he's doing it himself. But, hey, I'm arguing with someone who thinks one candidate is evil incarnate and the other a saint...

I know it makes you nervous how right I've been to this point, whatever makes you sleep at night I suppose but don't be surprised when everything I say becomes true. I was right in the primaries and you folks were disastrously wrong! I've stayed the course, I see the plan working. The media is waging running a campaign of character assassination but their charges won't stick, the media has done more to harm this country than almost anybody else at this point. If they were wrong every time before, why would they be right now? Now now, just stay home in November as Hill doesn't need your vote!

Remember when Romney's internal polling told him he was going to win? And Republicans were out there saying the polls were "skewed?" How did that turn out again?

Check out these polls that lean toward Trump to begin with. Then take head it is 538, the best predictive polling period.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... nd-steady/

Contrary to what you think, I wasn't surprised that Trump won the Republican nomination since their base is a bunch of racist bigots and is a fact free, low information crowd. Come back after the election if you dare to accept the medicine delivered on election day.

Jacob, you might hold opinions but polls clearly indicate it was split. You're the one with wishful thinking, otherwise you'd acknowledge not only the similarities but also differences... people weren't just voting on whether to be racist (extremists always exist), but also bureaucratic deficiencies, individual industries... they might have said millions will be available to the NHS, but no one voted to leave to build some unviable LEGO wall... people also had a common understanding that compromise needs to be reached one way or another, but whoa, the Republican nominee just wants to bulldoze over everyone... well, I wish him luck to even overcome congressional opposition to start with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... endum#2016

Mid to late March 'Remain' was most definitely in the lead in the polls

the globalists need to craft a narrative for their own pocketbooks, Brexit cost a lot of billionaires A LOT of money and these same people who are really without country are afraid of the same happening in America.

Being able to read a poll accurately is a skill, most people don't have any inclination to read beyond the headline but the tabs often tell a different story.

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/ ... filiation/

Actually Pew has it pegged at 32% percent Democrat to 23% Republican. And when political leanings are accounted for it's 48% Democrat to 39% Republican. So again Jacoby, you are not right.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... ing-badly/

And just to emphasize:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/d ... ias-224903

"Overall, Clinton leads Trump by nearly 7 points, according to averages calculated by HuffPost Pollster and RealClearPolitics. That represents Clinton’s largest lead since before Trump knocked out the last contenders for the GOP nomination and surged into a tie with Clinton."

Seventy-two pages in and I'm still waiting for the title of this thread to be validated.