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The Truth AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH: 2016 Election

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pcuser
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19 Aug 2016, 7:29 pm

Jacoby wrote:
Yet I'm the one actually talking about the specifics of the polling methodologies while you guys stick your fingers in your ears and whine about me, a 12% independent sample is not just wrong but intentionally wrong. Can you explain that because it certainly seems like an accurate sampling would make Trump's poll numbers look a lot better as he beats Hillary with independents handily in that same poll. I would say that self identified independents make up at least a third of the US electorate, a lot of the polls have it even more. You can dig into more of these polls, once you start checking the tabs you'll start seeing the pattern and realize how bogus pretty much all political polling is. It isn't a science, it's politics and it's all about creating narratives. Hillary got a post convention bump, it was overblown by the media who was simultaneously waging war against Trump but now things are returning to the norm that was before.

Nothing "conceded" about me, quite the opposite! :P :wink:

Do you have a degree in math? If not, you have no idea how well constructed a poll is. Without knowing the math behind how they created their methodology, you know nothing. Statistics is a complex subject one must understand deeply in order to make sense of a polls particulars.



Jacoby
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19 Aug 2016, 8:10 pm

pcuser wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Yet I'm the one actually talking about the specifics of the polling methodologies while you guys stick your fingers in your ears and whine about me, a 12% independent sample is not just wrong but intentionally wrong. Can you explain that because it certainly seems like an accurate sampling would make Trump's poll numbers look a lot better as he beats Hillary with independents handily in that same poll. I would say that self identified independents make up at least a third of the US electorate, a lot of the polls have it even more. You can dig into more of these polls, once you start checking the tabs you'll start seeing the pattern and realize how bogus pretty much all political polling is. It isn't a science, it's politics and it's all about creating narratives. Hillary got a post convention bump, it was overblown by the media who was simultaneously waging war against Trump but now things are returning to the norm that was before.

Nothing "conceded" about me, quite the opposite! :P :wink:

Do you have a degree in math? If not, you have no idea how well constructed a poll is. Without knowing the math behind how they created their methodology, you know nothing. Statistics is a complex subject one must understand deeply in order to make sense of a polls particulars.


What form of math turns the actual 35-40% self identified independents to the 12% in this Reuters poll? I don't think you need an advanced degree in mathematics to know something stinks with the sampling which has nothing to do with math but rather just assumptions from those administrating the poll not to mention the actual means in which these polls are done that are in total flux these last few years. Polls are not predictive but are just a snapshot in time within its given perimeters. It has nothing to do with math or 'advanced statistics', it's just bad politics. As usual. Their accuracy lately kind of speaks for itself doesn't it?



Lukeda420
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19 Aug 2016, 9:28 pm

Jacoby wrote:
pcuser wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Yet I'm the one actually talking about the specifics of the polling methodologies while you guys stick your fingers in your ears and whine about me, a 12% independent sample is not just wrong but intentionally wrong. Can you explain that because it certainly seems like an accurate sampling would make Trump's poll numbers look a lot better as he beats Hillary with independents handily in that same poll. I would say that self identified independents make up at least a third of the US electorate, a lot of the polls have it even more. You can dig into more of these polls, once you start checking the tabs you'll start seeing the pattern and realize how bogus pretty much all political polling is. It isn't a science, it's politics and it's all about creating narratives. Hillary got a post convention bump, it was overblown by the media who was simultaneously waging war against Trump but now things are returning to the norm that was before.

Nothing "conceded" about me, quite the opposite! :P :wink:

Do you have a degree in math? If not, you have no idea how well constructed a poll is. Without knowing the math behind how they created their methodology, you know nothing. Statistics is a complex subject one must understand deeply in order to make sense of a polls particulars.


What form of math turns the actual 35-40% self identified independents to the 12% in this Reuters poll? I don't think you need an advanced degree in mathematics to know something stinks with the sampling which has nothing to do with math but rather just assumptions from those administrating the poll not to mention the actual means in which these polls are done that are in total flux these last few years. Polls are not predictive but are just a snapshot in time within its given perimeters. It has nothing to do with math or 'advanced statistics', it's just bad politics. As usual. Their accuracy lately kind of speaks for itself doesn't it?


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pcuser
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19 Aug 2016, 9:36 pm

Jacoby wrote:
pcuser wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Yet I'm the one actually talking about the specifics of the polling methodologies while you guys stick your fingers in your ears and whine about me, a 12% independent sample is not just wrong but intentionally wrong. Can you explain that because it certainly seems like an accurate sampling would make Trump's poll numbers look a lot better as he beats Hillary with independents handily in that same poll. I would say that self identified independents make up at least a third of the US electorate, a lot of the polls have it even more. You can dig into more of these polls, once you start checking the tabs you'll start seeing the pattern and realize how bogus pretty much all political polling is. It isn't a science, it's politics and it's all about creating narratives. Hillary got a post convention bump, it was overblown by the media who was simultaneously waging war against Trump but now things are returning to the norm that was before.

Nothing "conceded" about me, quite the opposite! :P :wink:

Do you have a degree in math? If not, you have no idea how well constructed a poll is. Without knowing the math behind how they created their methodology, you know nothing. Statistics is a complex subject one must understand deeply in order to make sense of a polls particulars.


What form of math turns the actual 35-40% self identified independents to the 12% in this Reuters poll? I don't think you need an advanced degree in mathematics to know something stinks with the sampling which has nothing to do with math but rather just assumptions from those administrating the poll not to mention the actual means in which these polls are done that are in total flux these last few years. Polls are not predictive but are just a snapshot in time within its given perimeters. It has nothing to do with math or 'advanced statistics', it's just bad politics. As usual. Their accuracy lately kind of speaks for itself doesn't it?

Your ignorance of math doesn't make you correct. You don't need a degree to understand polls. However, you need higher math to calculate a polls accuracy. You also need it to determine those numbers you keep citing. Just because it makes no sense to you doesn't mean a poll is incorrect. Math allows you to calculate who and how many are polled to get a valid result. Again, it makes no sense to you because you have no knowledge of what goes into it...



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19 Aug 2016, 9:37 pm

Also, it takes mathematicians to construct any decent poll...



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19 Aug 2016, 9:56 pm

So tell me why a 12% sampling of independents despite all other evidence to contrary is correct? Do it without just appealing to some higher authority because if you know don't actually know it then why are we talking? Is their some mathematical formula that I am missing out on? It's just nonsense, I can spot a bogus poll when I see one. I would say my understanding of polls are better than 99% of people since since most people don't read beyond the headline and what they want to read, the tabs are always the most important part to gauging the inaccuracies. Surely you wouldn't argue these polls are infallible would you?

The invasion of the baseball nerds is probably the most insufferable thing to ever happen to politics, the progressive game plan is to present their viewpoints as scientifically correct meaning that there can in their minds be no genuine opposition to their ideas besides ignorance and stupidity which you see clearly in the discourse of these people for many years now so it is a tad funny to hear these some people start crying crocodile tears for all the meany words being said when they're the ones that started it. What did you expect after years and years of abuse, you know what they say about those in glass houses right?



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19 Aug 2016, 10:05 pm

Jacoby wrote:
So tell me why a 12% sampling of independents despite all other evidence to contrary is correct? Do it without just appealing to some higher authority because if you know don't actually know it then why are we talking? Is their some mathematical formula that I am missing out on? It's just nonsense, I can spot a bogus poll when I see one. I would say my understanding of polls are better than 99% of people since since most people don't read beyond the headline and what they want to read, the tabs are always the most important part to gauging the inaccuracies. Surely you wouldn't argue these polls are infallible would you?

The invasion of the baseball nerds is probably the most insufferable thing to ever happen to politics, the progressive game plan is to present their viewpoints as scientifically correct meaning that there can in their minds be no genuine opposition to their ideas besides ignorance and stupidity which you see clearly in the discourse of these people for many years now so it is a tad funny to hear these some people start crying crocodile tears for all the meany words being said when they're the ones that started it. What did you expect after years and years of abuse, you know what they say about those in glass houses right?


Yeah, you are soooo smart. Shall we bow to your intellect. I never said I could put an accurate poll together. I didn't go into that area of expertise. However, I did study the theories behind constructing a poll. We also learned how to determine the accurate error rate. There are formulas to determine the error rates. I'm done disputing what I know to be true through study in higher math. You simply are out of your league when you try to deconstruct a poll...



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19 Aug 2016, 10:14 pm

Flood Victims Cheer Trump in Louisiana: "We Knew You'd Be Here!" (VIDEO). http://tiny.iavian.net/bumf

Trump Plays the Role of President in Louisiana. http://tiny.iavian.net/bum4

This is how a REAL PRESIDENT acts.

GO BIG T (x3)! :mrgreen:


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19 Aug 2016, 10:21 pm

pcuser wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
So tell me why a 12% sampling of independents despite all other evidence to contrary is correct? Do it without just appealing to some higher authority because if you know don't actually know it then why are we talking? Is their some mathematical formula that I am missing out on? It's just nonsense, I can spot a bogus poll when I see one. I would say my understanding of polls are better than 99% of people since since most people don't read beyond the headline and what they want to read, the tabs are always the most important part to gauging the inaccuracies. Surely you wouldn't argue these polls are infallible would you?

The invasion of the baseball nerds is probably the most insufferable thing to ever happen to politics, the progressive game plan is to present their viewpoints as scientifically correct meaning that there can in their minds be no genuine opposition to their ideas besides ignorance and stupidity which you see clearly in the discourse of these people for many years now so it is a tad funny to hear these some people start crying crocodile tears for all the meany words being said when they're the ones that started it. What did you expect after years and years of abuse, you know what they say about those in glass houses right?


Yeah, you are soooo smart. Shall we bow to your intellect. I never said I could put an accurate poll together. I didn't go into that area of expertise. However, I did study the theories behind constructing a poll. We also learned how to determine the accurate error rate. There are formulas to determine the error rates. I'm done disputing what I know to be true through study in higher math. You simply are out of your league when you try to deconstruct a poll...


That is essentially what you are asking for me is it not? If you think I'm being condescending then check yourself since I'm mirroring what you give me. I'm not the one bringing up my degrees in 'advanced mathematics' that I apparently don't understand to counter an argument you apparently don't understand, I'm talking about the specific aspects of a poll. No need for any trigonometry!

You're still not answering the question either and that's because you don't have an answer obviously as I am correct in there being significant biases. I hope you start checking these other polls because you might be surprised at what you might find, I'm imagining it being like in The Big Short when they started looking at the mortgages in these AAA rated CDOs only to find them to be filled to the brim with junk! Be afraid, be very afraid!



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19 Aug 2016, 10:26 pm

nurseangela wrote:
Flood Victims Cheer Trump in Louisiana: "We Knew You'd Be Here!" (VIDEO). http://tiny.iavian.net/bumf

Trump Plays the Role of President in Louisiana. http://tiny.iavian.net/bum4

This is how a REAL PRESIDENT acts.

GO BIG T (x3)! :mrgreen:

the La governor asked trump not to come yet as it would divert first responders from helping victims to protecting trump. trump ignored him for the photo op.



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19 Aug 2016, 10:34 pm

cathylynn wrote:
nurseangela wrote:
Flood Victims Cheer Trump in Louisiana: "We Knew You'd Be Here!" (VIDEO). http://tiny.iavian.net/bumf

Trump Plays the Role of President in Louisiana. http://tiny.iavian.net/bum4

This is how a REAL PRESIDENT acts.

GO BIG T (x3)! :mrgreen:

the La governor asked trump not to come yet as it would divert first responders from helping victims to protecting trump. trump ignored him for the photo op.



Former Senator Mary Landrieu(Democrat) who comes from a big political family in Lousiana disagreed as it raised awareness and hoped that Obama and Hillary would soon follow. Obama is going to interrupt his vacation to visit now after Trump led the way whereas Hillary has not decided to do so yet.



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19 Aug 2016, 11:15 pm

obama, whose disaster team is at the scene and who has been getting frequent updates, won't visit until tuesday.



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19 Aug 2016, 11:16 pm

i wonder what kind of quid pro quo is goin' on between landrieu and The Rump?



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19 Aug 2016, 11:50 pm

cathylynn wrote:
obama, whose disaster team is at the scene and who has been getting frequent updates, won't visit until tuesday.


That should work better for his golf schedule anyway.


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20 Aug 2016, 12:03 am

media is trying to bury it but Trump came with large shipment of aid



Of course, Obama will be sold as the second coming when he finally does come for his photo op after finishing up his vacation nevermind the unthinking criticism they're throwing Trump's way now



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20 Aug 2016, 12:06 am

given trump's fortune and the need, an 18-wheeler-full isn't much.