Preparing for election, post election riots

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Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 1:22 am

ironpony wrote:
But even Biden seems to have made an acception speech so far, as if he won.


That's because he believes he has.



Feyokien
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09 Nov 2020, 1:26 am

The projected result could be overturned, but its very unlikely.

On the recount front, most of these recount states have Biden ahead by tens of thousands of votes. In the last election, recounts only netted or lost candidates votes numbering in the tens to hundreds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_recounts#Wisconsin

Oh the voter fraud front (invented ballots by dead people, double votes, etc), not much will probably turn up. It is very rare and Trump himself investigated it back in 2017/2018 and found little to nothing. The likelihood of a grand scheme like envisioned by some is very low, though not impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_impersonation_(United_States)#:~:text=A%20study%20released%20the%20same,other%20types%20of%20election%20fraud.

Basically, the only likely way Trump can still 'win' this election is if the Supreme court votes in favor of burning claimed 'illegal' ballots counted after election day from the current tallies. Considering past precedent where they have opted to not 'destabilize' democracy (see 2000 election where they opted to stop Florida recount), they are unlikely to act in a more extreme manner of widely disenfranchising voters. It could happen I suppose, but also unlikely.



Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 1:32 am

cyberdad wrote:
The funny thing is Trump is bragging himself he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming
https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/dr ... t/4134769/

I honestly couldn't make this stuff up. He is an absolute disgrace to humanity.


What's the point in persistently rehashing this speculation? How many more times does he'll go out kicking and screaming, he'll refuse to leave, he'll baracade himself in the white house et al need to be repeated?



Brictoria
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09 Nov 2020, 1:45 am

Feyokien wrote:
The projected result could be overturned, but its very unlikely.

On the recount front, most of these recount states have Biden ahead by tens of thousands of votes. In the last election, recounts only netted or lost candidates votes numbering in the tens to hundreds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_recounts#Wisconsin

Oh the voter fraud front (invented ballots by dead people, double votes, etc), not much will probably turn up. It is very rare and Trump himself investigated it back in 2017/2018 and found little to nothing. The likelihood of a grand scheme like envisioned by some is very low, though not impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_impersonation_(United_States)#:~:text=A%20study%20released%20the%20same,other%20types%20of%20election%20fraud.

Basically, the only likely way Trump can still 'win' this election is if the Supreme court votes in favor of burning claimed 'illegal' ballots counted after election day from the current tallies. Considering past precedent where they have opted to not 'destabilize' democracy (see 2000 election where they opted to stop Florida recount), they are unlikely to act in a more extreme manner of widely disenfranchising voters. It could happen I suppose, but also unlikely.


I believe there is a case open (Pennsylvania, from memory) regarding which votes could be accepted, given the state had a legislated 8PM cut-off that the federal court had "extended". In this case, it is likely that SCOTUS will be asked to determine whether the law is what legislators determined, or whether the judicial branch are permitted to change legislation in this way, which could be seen as having breached the seperation of powers.

Similarly, I understand a few counties have used "Dominion" software (not sure how well "Dominion" fits in with "Democracy", but an interesting choice of name for the company\product, if nothing else) for counting ballots which has had some "bugs" where votes for one side were recorded for the other (always in the same direction), and so may be used to trigger recounts in other areas that use the software but whose results may otherwise have gone unchallenged.

Whether these make any diffference (or which way they go) remains to be seen...



Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 1:53 am

cyberdad wrote:
The funny thing is Trump is bragging himself he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming
https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/dr ... t/4134769/

I honestly couldn't make this stuff up. He is an absolute disgrace to humanity.


Also where in the article is "Trump bragging himself he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming"?

Quote:
With the election result still hanging in the balance, a US media report claims President Donald Trump has signalled the Secret Service may have to drag him from the White House "kicking and screaming".

The idea that the president might actually refuse to physically leave was inherent in Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates' remark saying he wasn't worried about Trump vacating.

"The US government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House," Mr Bates said.

As Biden supporters flooded Twitter with memes and posts hashtagged #TrumpMeltdown and #You'reFired, Vanity Fair claimed the president was showing signs he had gone "full delusional".

It tweeted that Trump had "signalled to allies" that he'll never concede and "plans to barricade himself in the Oval office and refuse to come out if Biden wins".

"Trump apparently thinks he can just go on being president even if the American people have fired him," Vanity Fair's Bess Levin wrote in her column, The Levin Report.

"The decision … has obviously been strengthened by staffers, such as [White House chief of Staff] Mark Meadows, who, CNN reported, have not attempted to come to terms with the president about the reality of what is happening."

Vanity Fair claimed Trump "has apparently admitted to some people" he knows the voting numbers spell defeat for him.

But he has "maintained that a prolonged court battle and corrosive rhetoric about election fraud would sow enough doubt to allow him to refuse to accept the results".

Senior White House correspondents reported insiders were now saying that with Mr Trump refusing to concede, discussions were being held about how to convince him to leave.

"I had one person close to the White House tell me, 'No one is willing to tell King Lear the truth,'" said Hallie Jackson, MSNBC's White House correspondent.

CNN correspondent Kaitlan Collins said sources were telling her that "the president has said he has no plans to concede this election to Joe Biden".

"That creates this conversation about who is going to be the person that's going to reckon with the president and tell him that his time in office could be coming to an end.

"That's a conversation that I'm told the president's allies are still having, they're not sure who that person is going to be.

"They've talked about Jared Kushner, someone like an Ivanka Trump, but they haven't figured out who it is to bring the president to terms with reality."

Vanity Fair said it wasn't clear if the couple would be willing to undertake this "difficult intervention".

"It is a possibility the president did not consider [losing) in a serious way during the election … believing that looking past election day was bad luck.

"Now people around Trump are working to identify who might be able to communicate to him the stark reality."

One idea being floated to convince Trump to accept defeat is "framing potential conversations … around the idea of preserving his brand for life after being president".

This would require explaining to Trump that dragging out a concession and digging in at Pennsylvania Avenue would ruin his businesses and damage his political future.

Opinion pieces already written have said that even if Trump loses he is still the most powerful Republican on earth.

Given that it was a close election and not a Biden landslide, he could still have an important role in the party.

But petulant denial, falsehoods about fraud and just being a bad loser would erode that.



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09 Nov 2020, 2:08 am

Image



cyberdad
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09 Nov 2020, 2:09 am

Tempus Fugit wrote:
Also where in the article is "Trump bragging himself he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming"?

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1 ... 4134769%2F



Brictoria
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09 Nov 2020, 2:59 am

cyberdad wrote:
Tempus Fugit wrote:
Also where in the article is "Trump bragging himself he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming"?

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1 ... 4134769%2F


It would be nice if the link provided facts, rather than fantasies of people with no actual knowledge...



ironpony
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09 Nov 2020, 3:12 am

Well how long is it going to take them to count the votes, I shouldn't they have been already, or does it normally take this long? I'm not American so I usually do not pay this much attention, but does it normally take this long?



Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 3:50 am

cyberdad wrote:
Tempus Fugit wrote:
Also where in the article is "Trump bragging himself he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming"?

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1 ... 4134769%2F



That's something Vanity Fair is claiming, not something Trump is on record as having said or done. You made another false/misleading declaration.



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09 Nov 2020, 4:21 am

Ok

The bad news is Trump's petulance is legally allowed by the US constitution until states certify the final result and appoint delegates to the Electoral College, no result is final. (Ok Bric you got me on that one)


But what is reassuring;
Trump's position that also ignores the reality that in most states, almost every vote has been counted and reported. Forty-six states and the District of Columbia have been "called" by the media and political observers. There are not enough outstanding votes in these jurisdictions to change the winning candidate.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-09/ ... t/12863822

The only question that remains is whether he leaves on Jan 21st peacefully or if there's going to be a major tantrum followed by Biden calling security?



Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 4:29 am

cyberdad wrote:
The only question that remains is whether he leaves on Jan 21st peacefully or if there's going to be a major tantrum followed by Biden calling security?


Please tell me you're not going to keep rehashing that scenario until then.



Brictoria
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09 Nov 2020, 5:04 am

cyberdad wrote:
Trump's position that also ignores the reality that in most states, almost every vote has been counted and reported. Forty-six states and the District of Columbia have been "called" by the media and political observers. There are not enough outstanding votes in these jurisdictions to change the winning candidate.


The fact that "the media and political observers" have "called" the election has the same meaning and value as someone claiming that an anonymous source stated the "Trump bragged he would have to be dragged kicking and screaming from the Whitehouse": None.

The election is "called" individualy by the states themselves via their board of elections (from memory), following counting and any challenges that arise from the election process.



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09 Nov 2020, 9:48 am

He won’t go gently into that goodnight, he will rage...


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Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 10:47 am

So I've heard.



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09 Nov 2020, 11:27 am

Brictoria wrote:
It would be nice if the link provided facts, rather than fantasies of people with no actual knowledge...
Ya got something better, then? :P


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