To create a spacefaring civilization

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If we don't get out there before we're back to horse and buggy, then we will never be out there. It may not be profitable in the short term, although if ways to allow it to be profitable were found it would be better, but in the long term it certainly will be profitable in terms of more food production, habitations, allowing for more places to go for travelers and far more wondrous sights to see than here on Earth, more opportunity to be able to earn one's living. The initial start up cost is enormous, but so would the rewards be.

Brave talk. Now how do you propose to pay for it. Do you think the public will tolerate having their taxes raised just to put a man further out in space? Where is the profit? Where is the gain? And I don't mean phony baloney prestige. That was the scam that produced the Apollo Program which went nowhere. Once we put some people on the Moon and beat the Russians Congress lost interest in any major project. As a result we got the Shittle (I mean Shuttle) program which was pathetic.

ruveyn

Right. If that's all that ever happens then manned commercial spaceflight dies in 15 years or so.

But as more uses for commercial space come online (ISS, commercial stations, boutique tourism, lunar resupply, etc), you strengthen the chances of a robust private industry emerging.

There are no guarantees but it's an interesting possibility.

How about a space elevator with photovoltaic arrays, the companies which build it could charge for electrical usage back on Earth?

I hope they actually make the space elevator. I heard stuff about using carbon fiber to make the elevator, since carbon fiber is much stronger than any other known material. I think the photovoltaic array idea would work, since there is a form of carbon fiber that can transport electricity.

The ISS had cost overruns that were probably second only to the Iraq war. Nobody would want to invest in another one of those, especially when it doesn't even serve any dedicated purpose. I thought it was a ret*d idea when the plans were first introduced in my 6th grade science class, it's a ret*d idea now, and it will be a ret*d idea in the future. I do think it will be extremely useful as a target someday when we develop anti-satellite and anti-spacecraft weapons, kind of like we do with old naval vessels.

The ISS was built by many nations, in small pieces, over 13 years. The costs associated with it include the launch costs of shuttle for a decade, which would have flown doing something else anyway. SO they are somewhat overstated. A commercial station using inflatables would be built in 3-4 launches of inexpensive EELVs. They are not similar in cost. And there are larger versions proposed that could provide a very large skylab type station in a single launch of a very heavy rocket.

The assembly line for a commercial station is already being built and the project is backed by a billionaire. If he's willing to take the risk and believes there is a market, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He has letters of intent signed with many nations. It's an interesting possibility and provides commercial crew and supply with another potential destination.

Arthur C. Clarke said that until we have nuclear propulsion the space age hasn't even begun.

I think this is all a pipe dream.

What spurred on terrestrial exploration and colonization? Commercial interests in exploiting new resources.

Now, there may well be all manner of lovely resources lying untapped on other bodies in the solar system--but there is zero commercial interest in exploiting them if that cannot be done at a profit. Given the staggering costs of development involved, the exploitation potential is simply not viable.

Write to us when it happens. The space elevator is beautiful theory and science fiction and is very far away as a practical matter.

ruveyn

If they invent a helium 3 atomic bomb we won't need a space elevator.

That would be a fusion bomb. Fission only works with very heavy elements like Uranium, Plutonium and Thorium.

ruveyn

NASA most likely won't send new astronauts to the moon and manned spaceflight may have ended for America but manned space exploration as whole is not over. However, the Chinese are still continuing with their moon program and are likely to be the second nation to land man on the moon with their Chang'e program:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program

Suppose Chinese space vehicles are as good as their high speed trains? Maybe one flight in 20 will make it to the moon and back.

As it was, NASA which was managed by incompetent managerial swine lost two entire Shuttle Crews because they would not listen to the engineers who knew something about safety. The Chinese are even more callous with regard to safety.

ruveyn

But with a Helium 3 bomb there would be no radiation if it were a pure fusion device.

Wrong. H-bombs are triggered by A-bombs. It is the only way to get the hydrogen to a high enough temperature to fuse.

ruveyn