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abacacus
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25 Jan 2012, 5:30 pm

It's not as simple as you seem to think it is, nor do we have the resources to risk.


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iamnotaparakeet
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25 Jan 2012, 6:09 pm

abacacus wrote:
It's not as simple as you seem to think it is, nor do we have the resources to risk.


I don't think it's a simple matter whatsoever, but I think the rewards are worth the risks. Anything can be treated as an overly complex issue, from the simple act of making food which can be broken down into so many miniscule yet interdependent complexities in itself to, walking to one's car, starting the highly complex engine that is incredibly simple compared to even the simplest living creatures, traveling on roads risking death all throughout the time, heck even breathing's a risk. Who knows whether they might accidentally inhale phlegm or spittle and asphyxiate at any moment? Everything can be rhetorically drawn to be overly complex to the extreme, and so thereby make excuses as to why nothing should be done eternally. Such is just wasting time until it is too late for anything to be done. We do have the technology to go there, to send habitats, to send construction and processing materials and equipment, we do have the resources to do this and it's not as expensive or impossible as people seeking money and their own goals would make it seem to be. We will rot in the dust here if we continue as we have for the last few decades, doing nothing but sending junk into orbit. It's not just time to go now, it's been time to go and do this for decades.



Tadzio
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25 Jan 2012, 6:11 pm

ruveyn wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
So, what is with those who would argue against the colonization of space on the grounds that "we need to be perfect first"? Humanity will never be perfect and we will bring our problems with us or we'll stay and just wallow in them anyway, so making such a demand is effectively saying that we should never go anywhere. Forget that, I say we should go and colonize as much of space as we can, providing escape for some from this particular crazy world to the crazy world of their choice. There can be so much done even now with Mars and the Earth's moon, and yet we basically have stopped everything except having a zero-gee lab in low earth orbit kept on life support from the surface of our one planet. We need to do a lot more, and not any less. We need to go out and spread out across, at the very least, the solar system and we should start now rather than leave it for generations yet to be.


The Human Race will never be "perfect" (whatever that is).

ruveyn


Hi ruveyn,

There is always the most likely possibility of "perfect disaster".

Besides, The Grand Inquisitor demands it.

Tadzio



abacacus
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25 Jan 2012, 6:11 pm

Where would the resources come from? Whats the point? ONE mistake and billions of dollars just... goes away. With no return whatsoever.

Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


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iamnotaparakeet
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25 Jan 2012, 6:31 pm

abacacus wrote:
Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


There's an entire world to gain, so it is worth the risks and the expense too - even if it were to cost as much as WWII, it would still be worth it.



abacacus
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25 Jan 2012, 6:35 pm

iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


There's an entire world to gain, so it is worth the risks and the expense too - even if it were to cost as much as WWII, it would still be worth it.


No, not really. FAR too expensive for some minerals.

And frankly, minerals is all Mars has to offer.


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iamnotaparakeet
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25 Jan 2012, 6:46 pm

abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


There's an entire world to gain, so it is worth the risks and the expense too - even if it were to cost as much as WWII, it would still be worth it.


No, not really. FAR too expensive for some minerals.

And frankly, minerals is all Mars has to offer.


And surface area for habitats and greenhouses, and an orbit closer to the asteroid belt, and a significantly lower cost of fuel to go just about anywhere else in the solar system, and essentially a new home for people to leave this stinking hellhole of a planet and its overpopulated cities and corrupt governments behind and start over. It is the new frontier, waiting to be pioneered.



abacacus
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25 Jan 2012, 6:51 pm

iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


There's an entire world to gain, so it is worth the risks and the expense too - even if it were to cost as much as WWII, it would still be worth it.


No, not really. FAR too expensive for some minerals.

And frankly, minerals is all Mars has to offer.


And surface area for habitats and greenhouses, and an orbit closer to the asteroid belt, and a significantly lower cost of fuel to go just about anywhere else in the solar system, and essentially a new home for people to leave this stinking hellhole of a planet and its overpopulated cities and corrupt governments behind and start over. It is the new frontier, waiting to be pioneered.


The moon makes far more logical sense in that capacity which removes the need to go to Mars.


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iamnotaparakeet
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25 Jan 2012, 7:08 pm

abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


There's an entire world to gain, so it is worth the risks and the expense too - even if it were to cost as much as WWII, it would still be worth it.


No, not really. FAR too expensive for some minerals.

And frankly, minerals is all Mars has to offer.


And surface area for habitats and greenhouses, and an orbit closer to the asteroid belt, and a significantly lower cost of fuel to go just about anywhere else in the solar system, and essentially a new home for people to leave this stinking hellhole of a planet and its overpopulated cities and corrupt governments behind and start over. It is the new frontier, waiting to be pioneered.


The moon makes far more logical sense in that capacity which removes the need to go to Mars.


Actually not, since the moon has no atmosphere there's not usage of aerobraking for deceleration possible and so any lunar mission requires extra fuel to be sent in the payload. For that reason it's actually cheaper to send more usable payload to Mars even though the travel times for individual ships is greater than for traveling to the Earth's moon. Still though, send cargo on the minimum fuel Hohmann transfer and send personnel on the 6 month transfer on which they can still return to Earth should anything go wrong.

Also, the Moon has a 4 week "day" whereas Mars has a nearly identical day to Earth, so it would be better for agriculture since you wouldn't need to be as dependent upon electricity for growing food.



abacacus
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25 Jan 2012, 7:15 pm

iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
Too risky, not enough to gain, too expensive.


There's an entire world to gain, so it is worth the risks and the expense too - even if it were to cost as much as WWII, it would still be worth it.


No, not really. FAR too expensive for some minerals.

And frankly, minerals is all Mars has to offer.


And surface area for habitats and greenhouses, and an orbit closer to the asteroid belt, and a significantly lower cost of fuel to go just about anywhere else in the solar system, and essentially a new home for people to leave this stinking hellhole of a planet and its overpopulated cities and corrupt governments behind and start over. It is the new frontier, waiting to be pioneered.


The moon makes far more logical sense in that capacity which removes the need to go to Mars.


Actually not, since the moon has no atmosphere there's not usage of aerobraking for deceleration possible and so any lunar mission requires extra fuel to be sent in the payload. For that reason it's actually cheaper to send more usable payload to Mars even though the travel times for individual ships is greater than for traveling to the Earth's moon. Still though, send cargo on the minimum fuel Hohmann transfer and send personnel on the 6 month transfer on which they can still return to Earth should anything go wrong.

Also, the Moon has a 4 week "day" whereas Mars has a nearly identical day to Earth, so it would be better for agriculture since you wouldn't need to be as dependent upon electricity for growing food.


False. If it was cheaper to go to Mars than it is to go the moon, we would have gone by now. The extra time cruising through space isn't free.


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simon_says
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25 Jan 2012, 10:10 pm

You'll probably enjoy Gingrich's space policy speech. He wants a moon base by his "second term", road to Mars, innovation prizes, etc, etc.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/20 ... -the-moon/

I don't believe it would get serious attention, or survive Congress. We just saw a President try to force change in the space industry. Didnt go well.



artrat
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25 Jan 2012, 10:26 pm

Humans should never colonize space(if that will ever be possible) since we seem to be doing a fabulous job polluting our own planet.
We seem to be cutting the funds of the space program at the moment so it is likely impossible for the near future.


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26 Jan 2012, 11:52 am

iamnotaparakeet wrote:
There's deuterium, helium 3, uranium, gold, etc. It would be preferable to have colonization without shipping the resources back to Earth and really I think it could be done that way since executives only care about the bottom line of their accounting sheets anyway and not so much what country their facilities are in. Having ownership of property on another world may even be appealing to some business owners anyway.


Given the abundance of uranium reserves on this planet, I cannot see an economic argument for going after it off-world. Gold's value is based, in part, on its relative scarcity, and bringing in new supplies will simply debase it, given the few industrial applications for it. Almost all of our current supply of He3 is manufactured, and there is no reason to believe that we cannot continue doing so. Obviouly there are fewer and fewer nuclear weapons to disarm for that purpose, but CANDU reactors are still pumping out plenty of it.

The only argument I can see is that extraction methods on the Moon or Mars can be environmentally crude--we can dig open pits as large and as deep as we like. But I am still not convinced that lax environmental standards will make up for the cost of establishment, logistics and transportation.

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Yes, getting things started in a way that they'll thrive is a difficult matter to consider due to its complexity, but that also should not be held as an impassible barrier to finally getting out into space. Mars has the same surface area of land as Earth does (total surface area subtract surface area covered by sea), it has the nearly same length of day, it has water in the form of ice and in the permafrost throughout, it has enough of an atmosphere to allow for aerobraking, it has two moons, or asteroids if you prefer, that are ready to be made into spaceports, it has everything we need to live using the technology we have today and we can make it work if we only bloody try and just do what we need to do rather than just making excuses and emphasizing every difficulty imaginable.


Can we do it? Of course we can-I've never suggested that we can't. But what I do believe is that we cannot do it efficiently. We will always spend more resources than we recover embarking on a project like this.

Romanticism is all well and good, but romantic ideals can only become reality if they have a practical basis.


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26 Jan 2012, 12:56 pm

iamnotaparakeet wrote:
abacacus wrote:
iamnotaparakeet wrote:
simon_says wrote:
He's talking about Elon Musk's proposed Falcon Heavy, which doesnt currently exist. And he's talking about launching 15 empty ones at a price that has not yet been established. But payloads are where the real costs are. Assuming you want to do something other than sends tanks of water to resupply a mission that's already there. A serious manned Mars mission is going to cost a lot of money. Whether it's 15 heavy NASA rockets using chemical engines, or 7 using nuclear thermal rockets. And that's just one mission. One mission doesnt justify Zubrin's proposed space railroad.

It's interesting that you are promoting Musk though. Many Obama haters hate Musk because Obama said something nice about him and NASA went ahead with commercial crew funding that included SpaceX. But commercial space is a good thing.

TLDR: Takes a lot of money using current tech. He's dreaming of an era he'll never see.


I really don't care about what Obama says he likes or dislikes. Elon Musk said he intends to get humans on Mars before 2025 and so I have some good to say about him for that.


Getting people to Mars is nothing. We could have done that long ago.

Getting enough material and technology to Mars to start the colony you so desperately want? Not gonna happen by 2025. It probably won't happen for another 40-50 years. What you'll see on Mars first, are companies trying to find minerals they can dig for there and send back to Earth.


Let's go with that. A company finds a mineral deposit that's highly valuable, so they want to dig up as much as possible to ship it back. Do they use robots costing millions of dollars just to make or do they send humans?

Wouldn't it make more sense to extract minerals from asteroids? A insane amount of minerals and very weak gravity wells reducing greatly the need of fuel.


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