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Impending Global Economic Collapse

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ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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13 Jun 2012, 2:49 pm

MarthaCannary wrote:
There has been no total global economic collapse yet, just tremors so far.

The Powers That Be have been busy kicking the can down the road so they can continue burning and pillaging, getting themselves vastly rich and powerful in the process. The can is running out of room to be kicked.

In fact, there is no can anymore....

Were talking worse than the great depression.

Spain just took a "bailout" over $100billion this week, it was gone in a day... A DAY!! !! !! ! But the talking heads are up there chanting "it's okay, it's okay, it's okay, rah rah rah hey hey hey!" "recovery!!"

We still have another housing bubble, a student debt bubble and a credit card bubble just waiting to pop in the USA

China... Oh wow, poor China... They are building HUGE massive cities as make work projects that nobody lives in...... something like 70 million empty newish units.... Look up "ghost cities china". Still, I think the renmimbi will end up taking over the US Dollar....

Canada has been lying about their banks, leverage, exposure....

Germany is going to finally win the war... decades later, without bullets.

The core and periphery of the EU are totally broken and broke.

All of them are printing money out of thin air backed by nothing other than more debt at ever higher interest rates... The whole global economy has been hi-jacked and turned into a giant ponzi scheme. The rich get richer, the poor get... poorer..

Global debt is so top heavy it would take the GDP of the globe a thousand years to pay off (generalizing a bit here)

That's what money is all about. Money is not really wealth. Land, minerals, water, that's where the wealth really is. That's what developed nations need to stay developed. Otherwise, it's back to the days of oxen, rails and chopping your own wood.
So when people say "the fed is printing money out of thin air," it's meaningless. Money is just a way to motivate people to do things, like work. It's nothing to worry about. As long as you have oil, you are gonna do well. The problem is, the oil might run out one day. That's when the global "economy" will truly collapse, if the human species lets it. We have been in charge of our own destinies before so it's possible to be in control now.



JWC
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13 Jun 2012, 2:51 pm

MarthaCannary wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
simon_says wrote:
I have a sharp pencil.

Once civilization collapses I'll take my sharp pencil and eliminate the nearest person with supplies. And then I'll be ready. I may take his family as slaves but we'll see how fit they are.


I have a shotgun and a lot of supplies. Anyone who gets near me or my supplies will wish they had brought more than a pencil. :D

Better get something better than a shotgun.


Oh don't you worry...I've got much better than just a shotgun! :lol:


Damn Americans..... Probably has a rocket launcher or something....

Just Kidding!! !! </SARC>


Not just American...Texan!



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13 Jun 2012, 2:58 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
That's what money is all about. Money is not really wealth. Land, minerals, water, that's where the wealth really is. That's what developed nations need to stay developed. Otherwise, it's back to the days of oxen, rails and chopping your own wood.
So when people say "the fed is printing money out of thin air," it's meaningless. Money is just a way to motivate people to do things, like work. It's nothing to worry about. As long as you have oil, you are gonna do well. The problem is, the oil might run out one day. That's when the global "economy" will truly collapse, if the human species lets it. We have been in charge of our own destinies before so it's possible to be now.


The problem is they are betting on derivatives, not just resources.. and most of the system is gamed.

Check out terms like quants and HFT and algo's......

it's not even people betting on the system anymore... it's computers, computers who's algorithms are trolling the internet picking up on trends from the likes of social media networks and adding the trends to their equations. All the data is skewed. The house wins, always.

Speaking of oil... How much is oil per barrel these days? And how much are we paying at the pump? Oh about the same as we were when oil was $150/barrel.... I live in Tar sands country, my province produces the stuff, refines the stuff.... we still pay more than fair market value. You look at other oil producing OPEC countries, they are paying squat to fill their tanks.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:05 pm

MarthaCannary wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
That's what money is all about. Money is not really wealth. Land, minerals, water, that's where the wealth really is. That's what developed nations need to stay developed. Otherwise, it's back to the days of oxen, rails and chopping your own wood.
So when people say "the fed is printing money out of thin air," it's meaningless. Money is just a way to motivate people to do things, like work. It's nothing to worry about. As long as you have oil, you are gonna do well. The problem is, the oil might run out one day. That's when the global "economy" will truly collapse, if the human species lets it. We have been in charge of our own destinies before so it's possible to be now.


The problem is they are betting on derivatives, not just resources.. and most of the system is gamed.

Check out terms like quants and HFT and algo's......

it's not even people betting on the system anymore... it's computers, computers who's algorithms are trolling the internet picking up on trends from the likes of social media networks and adding the trends to their equations. All the data is skewed. The house wins, always.

Speaking of oil... How much is oil per barrel these days? And how much are we paying at the pump? Oh about the same as we were when oil was $150/barrel.... I live in Tar sands country, my province produces the stuff, refines the stuff.... we still pay more than fair market value. You look at other oil producing OPEC countries, they are paying squat to fill their tanks.


I work in the upstream oil industry; without going into too much detail, I can assure you that anything you've heard in the news about peak oil, etc. is patently false.

I find it interesting that, if adjusted for inflation, a gallon of oil can still be bought for one silver quarter. In other words, over the long run it's not the price of oil that is increasing, it's the value of our money that is decreasing.



ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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13 Jun 2012, 3:06 pm

MarthaCannary wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
That's what money is all about. Money is not really wealth. Land, minerals, water, that's where the wealth really is. That's what developed nations need to stay developed. Otherwise, it's back to the days of oxen, rails and chopping your own wood.
So when people say "the fed is printing money out of thin air," it's meaningless. Money is just a way to motivate people to do things, like work. It's nothing to worry about. As long as you have oil, you are gonna do well. The problem is, the oil might run out one day. That's when the global "economy" will truly collapse, if the human species lets it. We have been in charge of our own destinies before so it's possible to be now.


The problem is they are betting on derivatives, not just resources.. and most of the system is gamed.

Check out terms like quants and HFT and algo's......

it's not even people betting on the system anymore... it's computers, computers who's algorithms are trolling the internet picking up on trends from the likes of social media networks and adding the trends to their equations. All the data is skewed. The house wins, always.

Speaking of oil... How much is oil per barrel these days? And how much are we paying at the pump? Oh about the same as we were when oil was $150/barrel.... I live in Tar sands country, my province produces the stuff, refines the stuff.... we still pay more than fair market value. You look at other oil producing OPEC countries, they are paying squat to fill their tanks.

Countries with cheap gasoline have governments that subsidize it costing the consumer less at the pump.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:09 pm

JWC wrote:
MarthaCannary wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
That's what money is all about. Money is not really wealth. Land, minerals, water, that's where the wealth really is. That's what developed nations need to stay developed. Otherwise, it's back to the days of oxen, rails and chopping your own wood.
So when people say "the fed is printing money out of thin air," it's meaningless. Money is just a way to motivate people to do things, like work. It's nothing to worry about. As long as you have oil, you are gonna do well. The problem is, the oil might run out one day. That's when the global "economy" will truly collapse, if the human species lets it. We have been in charge of our own destinies before so it's possible to be now.


The problem is they are betting on derivatives, not just resources.. and most of the system is gamed.

Check out terms like quants and HFT and algo's......

it's not even people betting on the system anymore... it's computers, computers who's algorithms are trolling the internet picking up on trends from the likes of social media networks and adding the trends to their equations. All the data is skewed. The house wins, always.

Speaking of oil... How much is oil per barrel these days? And how much are we paying at the pump? Oh about the same as we were when oil was $150/barrel.... I live in Tar sands country, my province produces the stuff, refines the stuff.... we still pay more than fair market value. You look at other oil producing OPEC countries, they are paying squat to fill their tanks.


I work in the upstream oil industry; without going into too much detail, I can assure you that anything you've heard in the news about peak oil, etc. is patently false.

I find it interesting that, if adjusted for inflation, a gallon of oil can still be bought for one silver quarter. In other words, over the long run it's not the price of oil that is increasing, it's the value of our money that is decreasing.

I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:09 pm

Anyone ready for it?

I'm currently very much short in the market, through direct shorts and puts.

Anyone doing anything different?
Not short term, long term I've started slowly accumulating stock, because the debt problem is a bit overblown at the moment. All that's really needed is swift and decisive government action. The EU can print Euros, Germany is just being a b***h about inflation.

It's quite ironic that years ago during the time with Lehman Helicopter Ben B, spoke about how the depression was a credit crisis which resulted in a shortage of capital, when the same exact thing is happening now in a different manner.


Taking any steps?
Some.


What are you doing?

What do you think will happen short term?

Short term, there will be some form of action from the EU, either through something similar to QE 1 and 2 or through Keynesian spending on infrastructure and other government projects.

Once the worries rise high enough government will have to take action or lose their careers, and politicians are all about keeping their career paths on track.


What do you think will happen long term?

Year on Year growth from a large amount of markets, the fundamental issue now is that companies are largely doing well as evidenced by recent earnings reports. However, the danger that government debt poses from the EU, an EU that will not start printing money until Germany starts to struggle, because the EU is in essence a bunch of little guys, a few medium size guys and a huge bloody German.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:19 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.


America doesn't import oil because we have to. We import it because the govt places vast quantities of oil out of our reach through regulation.

We're not even able to exhaust the wells we've already drilled. Most are capped without recovering 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil present, and are returned to later as new recovery technologies are invented. In most cases, the challenge isn't finding new sources of oil; it's getting the oil we've already found to the surface.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:26 pm

JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.


America doesn't import oil because we have to. We import it because the govt places vast quantities of oil out of our reach through regulation.

We're not even able to exhaust the wells we've already drilled. Most are capped without recovering 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil present, and are returned to later as new recovery technologies are invented. In most cases, the challenge isn't finding new sources of oil; it's getting the oil we've already found to the surface.

Part of the problem is costs. If you are talking about deep water drilling, one well costs hundreds of millions of dollars to drill. I haven't heard of "vast" quantities of oil in the US, but there is natural gas.
So if you go into deep water and start drilling away, you are spending hundreds of millions and it's not even a guarantee the well will produce any oil.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:31 pm

I've even heard it said it is easier put a man on the moon than it is to get oil from these deep water sites.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:38 pm

If peak oil were false they'd still be drilling on dry land in Texas, not the Gulf. It certainly has come locally in places. Globally it's just a matter of when. And that's in addition to the inevitable cost increases of getting at harder stuff. Maybe it will be smooth. Maybe not.

But once it's normal for the Chinese, Indians and Africans to drive their own cars? Ouch. A world acting like the US would be one oil hungry place.



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13 Jun 2012, 3:41 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.


America doesn't import oil because we have to. We import it because the govt places vast quantities of oil out of our reach through regulation.

We're not even able to exhaust the wells we've already drilled. Most are capped without recovering 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil present, and are returned to later as new recovery technologies are invented. In most cases, the challenge isn't finding new sources of oil; it's getting the oil we've already found to the surface.

Part of the problem is costs. If you are talking about deep water drilling, one well costs hundreds of millions of dollars to drill. I haven't heard of "vast" quantities of oil in the US, but there is natural gas.
So if you go into deep water and start drilling away, you are spending hundreds of millions and it's not even a guarantee the well will produce any oil.


I think you might have missed this part of my original statement:

Quote:
I work in the upstream oil industry


I'm responsible for designating and designing the tools/facilities used to retrieve oil from the earth. I work closely with people who are in exploration. I doubt that there is much that you can tell me about the costs/difficulties of oil exploration/recovery that I don't already know and use on a daily basis. :thumleft:



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13 Jun 2012, 3:49 pm

JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.


America doesn't import oil because we have to. We import it because the govt places vast quantities of oil out of our reach through regulation.

We're not even able to exhaust the wells we've already drilled. Most are capped without recovering 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil present, and are returned to later as new recovery technologies are invented. In most cases, the challenge isn't finding new sources of oil; it's getting the oil we've already found to the surface.

Part of the problem is costs. If you are talking about deep water drilling, one well costs hundreds of millions of dollars to drill. I haven't heard of "vast" quantities of oil in the US, but there is natural gas.
So if you go into deep water and start drilling away, you are spending hundreds of millions and it's not even a guarantee the well will produce any oil.


I think you might have missed this part of my original statement:

Quote:
I work in the upstream oil industry


I'm responsible for designating and designing the tools/facilities used to retrieve oil from the earth. I work closely with people who are in exploration. I doubt that there is much that you can tell me about the costs/difficulties of oil exploration/recovery that I don't already know and use on a daily basis. :thumleft:

I do not doubt your knowledge. However, these stark facts are my concern. Oil is a precious, non renewable resource. No one has found an adequate substitute so why is it taken for granted? Why wouldn't people want fuel efficiency? It is a fact that oil is not going to last forever. There is no endless supply of it on this planet.



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13 Jun 2012, 4:00 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.


America doesn't import oil because we have to. We import it because the govt places vast quantities of oil out of our reach through regulation.

We're not even able to exhaust the wells we've already drilled. Most are capped without recovering 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil present, and are returned to later as new recovery technologies are invented. In most cases, the challenge isn't finding new sources of oil; it's getting the oil we've already found to the surface.

Part of the problem is costs. If you are talking about deep water drilling, one well costs hundreds of millions of dollars to drill. I haven't heard of "vast" quantities of oil in the US, but there is natural gas.
So if you go into deep water and start drilling away, you are spending hundreds of millions and it's not even a guarantee the well will produce any oil.


I think you might have missed this part of my original statement:

Quote:
I work in the upstream oil industry


I'm responsible for designating and designing the tools/facilities used to retrieve oil from the earth. I work closely with people who are in exploration. I doubt that there is much that you can tell me about the costs/difficulties of oil exploration/recovery that I don't already know and use on a daily basis. :thumleft:

I do not doubt your knowledge. However, these stark facts are my concern. Oil is a precious, non renewable resource. No one has found an adequate substitute so why is it taken for granted? Why wouldn't people want fuel efficiency? It is a fact that oil is not going to last forever. There is no endless supply of it on this planet.


Nor is their any endless supply of any type of energy. But the hype about peak oil is pure B.S.; we've got enough to last for hundreds of years. Even a drastically accelerated usage levels. I find the only reliable source for information about oil is directly from someone in the industry. Anything you find in the media or university is simply serving an individual's political agenda. The closer to first-hand that your knowledge is, the better.



ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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13 Jun 2012, 5:22 pm

JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
JWC wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
I wouldn't be too sure. How much oil is left in Saudi Arabia? America doesn't have enough oil to fulfill it's needs. It has to be imported from other countries. Some say the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are beyond peak and in decline. That's the biggest producer. The Tar Sands have been mentioned. It's expensive and takes a lot of energy to extract oil from Tar sands. Just the fact that people are refining these sands could mean we are past peak.


America doesn't import oil because we have to. We import it because the govt places vast quantities of oil out of our reach through regulation.

We're not even able to exhaust the wells we've already drilled. Most are capped without recovering 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil present, and are returned to later as new recovery technologies are invented. In most cases, the challenge isn't finding new sources of oil; it's getting the oil we've already found to the surface.

Part of the problem is costs. If you are talking about deep water drilling, one well costs hundreds of millions of dollars to drill. I haven't heard of "vast" quantities of oil in the US, but there is natural gas.
So if you go into deep water and start drilling away, you are spending hundreds of millions and it's not even a guarantee the well will produce any oil.


I think you might have missed this part of my original statement:

Quote:
I work in the upstream oil industry


I'm responsible for designating and designing the tools/facilities used to retrieve oil from the earth. I work closely with people who are in exploration. I doubt that there is much that you can tell me about the costs/difficulties of oil exploration/recovery that I don't already know and use on a daily basis. :thumleft:

I do not doubt your knowledge. However, these stark facts are my concern. Oil is a precious, non renewable resource. No one has found an adequate substitute so why is it taken for granted? Why wouldn't people want fuel efficiency? It is a fact that oil is not going to last forever. There is no endless supply of it on this planet.


Nor is their any endless supply of any type of energy. But the hype about peak oil is pure B.S.; we've got enough to last for hundreds of years. Even a drastically accelerated usage levels. I find the only reliable source for information about oil is directly from someone in the industry. Anything you find in the media or university is simply serving an individual's political agenda. The closer to first-hand that your knowledge is, the better.

Where is this supply that will last hundreds of years in the future at accelerated usage?



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14 Jun 2012, 10:15 am

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Where is this supply that will last hundreds of years in the future at accelerated usage?


You ask this as if it were all in one place. Most of it is in deposits that have already been discovered, but new deposits are found frequently. How specific of an answer are you looking for?