SURPRISE!! Republican Congress Seated, Clock Moves Closer

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ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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23 Jan 2015, 12:26 pm

Dillogic wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
According to the scientists who move the hands of the doomsday clock closer to midnight (doomsday) the results will cause a global catastrophe.


That's not an educating answer.

I found that by 2100, without change, the global temperature will rise by 4 degrees Celsius, and all the projected negative effects will affect us in the domain of comfort (harder to farm, for example, so food will be more sparse), albeit it won't stop us from being able to live here.



If you want more info on the Doomsday clock click here:

http://thebulletin.org/timeline

Quote:
IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
DoomsdayClock_black_3mins_regmark.jpg
3 minutes to midnight
2015: "Unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.” Despite some modestly positive developments in the climate change arena, current efforts are entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have embarked on massive programs to modernize their nuclear triads—thereby undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties. "The clock ticks now at just three minutes to midnight because international leaders are failing to perform their most important duty—ensuring and preserving the health and vitality of human civilization."


I am not a scientist. It is not my duty to talk like one but I do have a right to evaluate the information.



AspieUtah
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23 Jan 2015, 12:32 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Funny thing is, people are willing to accept science without question in every category except Climate Change. Why is that?

Suddenly, lo and behold, science is flawed and it's a big fat hoax.

People are less willing to believe the theory of anthropomorphic climate change (formerly man-made gobal warming) because of Climategate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_ ... ontroversy (a.k.a. the Climatic Research Unit email controversy) where leaked e-mail messages between U.N. scientists and their U.S. and U.K. counterparts showed a desire to "hide the decline [of average global temperatures]" using at least one "statistical 'trick[,]'" http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/scien ... imate.html and because of the 2012 professional-opinion letter from 49 NASA scientists http://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-sci ... nge-2012-4 where they stated that "...the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated."

The rapid and dramatic change in public opinion about anthropomorphic climate change comes from these disclosures, not an ignorant populace.


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Dillogic
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23 Jan 2015, 12:38 pm

They're obviously not using "catastrophic" in the same way I would.

Nuclear war won't be catastrophic, other than lots of people dying (which would actually help global warming, especially if people rebuild destroyed cities in a more environmental way).

Global warming and nuclear war are far from devastating events for the planet.



ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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23 Jan 2015, 12:46 pm

Dillogic wrote:
They're obviously not using "catastrophic" in the same way I would.

Nuclear war won't be catastrophic, other than lots of people dying (which would actually help global warming, especially if people rebuild destroyed cities in a more environmental way).

Global warming and nuclear war are far from devastating events for the planet.

It's catastrophic as in, millions would die. The big cities full of people would take a hard hit because no one can sustain themselves within so if there's a problem in places that grow food, it will mean those people starve because they can't easily grow their own. There would be massive amounts of casualties due to famine if we lost a lot of agricultural infrastructure and it will only get worse as earth becomes more and more populated and that's something Republicans want to see, many more baby booms, one in each generation. They see no problem with it. Well, the reason the climate is changing is partly due to an explosion in the human population and the way we alter the planet to suit us instead of learning to cope with what is already there. Every generation increases, the problems increase right along with them. They go hand in hand. Most Republicans only want to clutch their Bibles and holler thank you Jesus I know you are coming! A sign! A sign! They don't care if it all goes to hell it just means the return of Jesus.



AspieUtah
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23 Jan 2015, 12:54 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Most Republicans only want to clutch their Bibles and holler thank you Jesus I know you are coming! A sign! A sign! They don't care if it all goes to hell it just means the return of Jesus.

Do you really want to bring religion into this?


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ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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23 Jan 2015, 12:59 pm

AspieUtah wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Most Republicans only want to clutch their Bibles and holler thank you Jesus I know you are coming! A sign! A sign! They don't care if it all goes to hell it just means the return of Jesus.

Do you really want to bring religion into this?

YES I do! It's incredibly selfish to assume everyone should follow your thinking and do what you want and call that religion along with a blatant disregard for what others may be thinking or wanting.

What if I want my religion to include sustainability and education as opposed to relentless Bible clutching?



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23 Jan 2015, 1:27 pm

AspieUtah wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Funny thing is, people are willing to accept science without question in every category except Climate Change. Why is that?

Suddenly, lo and behold, science is flawed and it's a big fat hoax.

People are less willing to believe the theory of anthropomorphic climate change (formerly man-made gobal warming) because of Climategate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_ ... ontroversy (a.k.a. the Climatic Research Unit email controversy) ...
The rapid and dramatic change in public opinion about anthropomorphic climate change comes from these disclosures, not an ignorant populace.

The alternatives you present in your final statement are not mutually exclusive. Anyone who changed their mind based on "climategate" is ignorant (indeed, anyone who doesn't believe in global warming is ignorant). There have been nine independent investigations, and none found any ethics violations or evidence of manipulation of data. Regardless, the data in question has been validated by multiple sources.

There are four other substantial mistakes in your post that I have spotted:

1) The notion that anthropogenic climate change is "formerly man made global warming". The two have been used interchangeably for thirty years and continue to be used interchangeably.

2) You say that "49 NASA scientists dispute global warming" - nuh uh. 49 former NASA employees. Most of them are engineers, and several are astronauts. They have no expertise in this area, and their opinions are also wrong, so why anyone would really care what they think is beyond me.

3a) There was no attempt to "hide the decline in global average temperatures". The decline being hidden was in tree ring thickness relative to another proxy for temperature. The "trick" was replacing the proxy with actual temperature data.

3b) You can't hide something that doesn't exist.



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23 Jan 2015, 1:37 pm

Desurage wrote:
When we can't predict weather for a week I have problems with the projections despite all the assurances.

Do you follow any sports?

It's much easier to predict who the top few teams will be at the end of the season than who is going to be at the top after the first round of matches. Judging long term trends is much easier than precisely predicting short-term events which can be variable - although it's worth noting that we're actually very good at predicting the weather short term.



ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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23 Jan 2015, 1:47 pm

The greatest danger imo is this tremendous population explosion the Bible thumping Republicans demand for all of us coupled with the loss of vast agricultural parcels due to drought, and drought in general. Someone is going to have to feed all these new mouths and if you do not have the area in which to grow the food, they won't have anything to eat. And when it happens, when these large areas no longer provide crops or can sustain cattle, and the water is very scarce except for the oceans, people will just be screwed. There's food in storage now but it won't last forever and if you keep adding millions and millions and millions each year. It's a capitalist's dream, that many people buying products, but we do not take into consideration, what happens if we cannot grow the food?



eric76
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23 Jan 2015, 2:01 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
to doomsday!


Not surprising considering the politics of those who set the clock. The clock is about politics far more than anything else.

Quote:
Republicans are the last ones on earth prepared to confront the threats from climate change. We are as good as passengers on the Titanic, now. Been nice knowing you, Earth. Sorry my species ruined ya. :cry:


There is absolutely no need to panic. While there will be some downsides from Global Warming, there are likely to be far more upsides.

The real disaster would be cooling. A warmer earth is more productive and can feed far more species and people. A cooler earth is much less productive and would mean famine on a large scale.

I think that it is no accident that mankind started on a path to civilization at a time when the Earth was 2 to 3 degrees C warmer than today. In a cooler earth, people have to work too hard to survive and have no time for such luxuries as civilization.

Instead of listening to the hallucinations of the panic-mongers, look at history to find out what really happens with a warmer Earth. You will be pleasantly surprised.



AspieUtah
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23 Jan 2015, 2:03 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
...It's incredibly selfish to assume everyone should follow your thinking and do what you want and call that religion along with a blatant disregard for what others may be thinking or wanting....

Indeed. And, isn't that what you are doing when you demand that they (those who believe the Bible, and those who might be Republicans) do what you want them to do at the exclusion of their own beliefs and desired actions, and that of their supporters? Such Bible-believing Republicans got elected in the same way that their opponents did: by convincing a majority of their states' citizens to vote for them and do exactly what they promised to do. No surprises. That is called politics and, apart from some constitutional violations being treated otherwise, elections have consequences. Instead of complaining, do something about it.

By the way, I disagree with both political parties. So, I am disappointed most of the time, but I do something about it. I lobby successfully for the small changes which, cumulatively, make big differences.


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23 Jan 2015, 2:04 pm

eric76 wrote:
There is absolutely no need to panic.

A scary thought in itself.



AspieUtah
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23 Jan 2015, 2:05 pm

eric76 wrote:
...I think that it is no accident that mankind started on a path to civilization at a time when the Earth was 2 to 3 degrees C warmer than today. In a cooler earth, people have to work too hard to survive and have no time for such luxuries as civilization.

Instead of listening to the hallucinations of the panic-mongers, look at history to find out what really happens with a warmer Earth. You will be pleasantly surprised.

That is how Greenland got its name.


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eric76
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23 Jan 2015, 2:09 pm

Dillogic wrote:
I found that by 2100, without change, the global temperature will rise by 4 degrees Celsius, and all the projected negative effects will affect us in the domain of comfort (harder to farm, for example, so food will be more sparse), albeit it won't stop us from being able to live here.


Just how do you get 4 degrees C? The models may make such projections, but look at how much difficulty they have just trying to predict what we have today.

A warmer planet harder to farm? Why would that be? Not only do plants grow better in the warmth and more CO2 (many greenhouse operators inject CO2 into the greenhouses to promote faster growth), but warmer air can take up more moisture and deliver it back as rain. During the Holocene Climatic Optimum when temperatures were 2 to 3 C higher than today, the Sahara Desert was green, the Gobi Desert was forested, and northern Mexico was wet. Some areas would get drier due to weather patterns, in general we should get more moisture, not less.

I look forward to a warmer, more productive planet with fewer people dying of starvation.



eric76
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23 Jan 2015, 2:16 pm

This blog entry was just published the other day, http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/my-life-as-a-climate-lukewarmer.aspx. From the blog:

Quote:
I am a climate lukewarmer. That means I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.

...

I was not always a lukewarmer. When I first started writing about the threat of global warming more than 26 years ago, as science editor ofThe Economist, I thought it was a genuinely dangerous threat. Like, for instance, Margaret Thatcher, I accepted the predictions being made at the time that we would see warming of a third or a half a degree (Centigrade) a decade, perhaps more, and that this would have devastating consequences.

Gradually, however, I changed my mind. The failure of the atmosphere to warm anywhere near as rapidly as predicted was a big reason: there has been less than half a degree of global warming in four decades — and it has slowed down, not speeded up. Increases in malaria, refugees, heatwaves, storms, droughts and floods have not materialised to anything like the predicted extent, if at all. Sea level has risen but at a very slow rate — about a foot per century.

Also, I soon realised that all the mathematical models predicting rapid warming assume big amplifying feedbacks in the atmosphere, mainly from water vapour; carbon dioxide is merely the primer, responsible for about a third of the predicted warming. When this penny dropped, so did my confidence in predictions of future alarm: the amplifiers are highly uncertain.

Another thing that gave me pause was that I went back and looked at the history of past predictions of ecological apocalypse from my youth – population explosion, oil exhaustion, elephant extinction, rainforest loss, acid rain, the ozone layer, desertification, nuclear winter, the running out of resources, pandemics, falling sperm counts, cancerous pesticide pollution and so forth. There was a consistent pattern of exaggeration, followed by damp squibs: in not a single case was the problem as bad as had been widely predicted by leading scientists. That does not make every new prediction of apocalypse necessarily wrong, of course, but it should encourage scepticism.

What sealed my apostasy from climate alarm was the extraordinary history of the famous “hockey stick” graph, which purported to show that today’s temperatures were higher and changing faster than at any time in the past thousand years. That graph genuinely shocked me when I first saw it and, briefly in the early 2000s, it persuaded me to abandon my growing doubts about dangerous climate change and return to the “alarmed” camp.

...

I am especially unimpressed by the claim that a prediction of rapid and dangerous warming is “settled science”, as firm as evolution or gravity. How could it be? It is a prediction! No prediction, let alone in a multi-causal, chaotic and poorly understood system like the global climate, should ever be treated as gospel. With the exception of eclipses, there is virtually nothing scientists can say with certainty about the future. It is absurd to argue that one cannot disagree with a forecast. Is the Bank of England’s inflation forecast infallible?

Incidentally, my current view is still consistent with the “consensus” among scientists, as represented by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The consensus is that climate change is happening, not that it is going to be dangerous. The latest IPCC report gives a range of estimates of future warming, from harmless to terrifying. My best guess would be about one degree of warming during this century, which is well within the IPCC’s range of possible outcomes.

Yet most politicians go straight to the top of the IPCC’s range and call climate change things like “perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction” (John Kerry), requiring the expenditure of trillions of dollars. I think that is verging on grotesque in a world full of war, hunger, disease and poverty. It also means that environmental efforts get diverted from more urgent priorities, like habitat loss and invasive species.



eric76
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23 Jan 2015, 2:23 pm

Many Global Warming scaremongers claim that the 97% consensus is on their side. In fact, it is not on their side at all.

Look at how the 97% consensus was derived. A handful of people looked at the abstracts of several thousand papers on the climate. Any paper that indicated that mankind is at least partially responsible for Global Warming was counted as in favor.

That what the scientific consensus is -- that mankind is responsible for at least some portion of Global Warming. It is not that we are responsible for most of it, much less for all of it. Furthermore, there is no 97% consensus among climate researchers that it will be a disaster. The predicted disaster is not scientific at all -- it is spread by scaremongers who want to co-opt the climate to push for their own political agenda.

In other words, climate disaster from warning is political in nature, not scientific.