0_equals_true wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
Join Labour, and vote for candidates in this order:
1) Kendall
2) Cooper
3) Burnham
4) Corbyn
That's the order in which they are likely to take votes off the Conservatives and win election in 2020. Not only are they likely to directly take votes off the Conservatives, but the further Labour are to the right, historically the better that third parties have done (see: 1997).
Tbh Labour has lost so much credibility, there is big question mark whether they would remain the second party, it is a dependent on if Lib Dems might can convince the public that without clegg, they would be a credible challenge.
Labour have a 200 seat advantage on the Lib Dems, that's twice the gap between them and the Tories.
Even if there was a 50-seat swing from Labour to the Lib Dems in England and Wales (restoring the Lib Dems to their peak size) and the Lib Dems completely swept Scotland, both of which seem extremely unlikely to me, Labour would still be the biggest party of opposition.
Labour's leadership election is getting much more attention than the Lib Dem one did so I think it's safe to say the Labour leader is seen as more likely to become PM.
Think it will be 2025 before the Lib Dems (assuming they even still exist) can make a challenge for 2nd party. UKIP would need major reform to win over the 80% of the country that detests 80% of the party, put Carswell in charge and they could maybe be a right-wing alternative to the Lib Dems.