naturalplastic wrote:
beneficii wrote:
The war described in the post is due to oil and wanting to control access to markets in the South (such as South America, Africa, and the Middle East). Thanks to global warming, a lot of oil and gas is becoming extractable in the Arctic, and the Arctic Powers are looking to monopolize it. Thanks to rather toxic politics in America, Russia, and the UK, there is an increasing ultranationalism and a desire to have these resources only for themselves. Thus, they go to war.
Not sure if this makes your scenario more plausible, or less plausible.
But those are real trends: climate change in the arctic, resources being found on the bottom of the arctic ocean, and nationalism already rising in the three countries mentioned.
They are finding oil and probably will find natural gas in the arctic ocean. And this is being made possible by climate change. The trend to expect is for there to be decreasing ice and increasing black gold deposits being found in the arctic ocean.
A few years ago Putin did send a sub to the north pole to plant a Russian flag on the sea bottom right at the Pole.
Both Canada and Russia have what are called "sector claims" in the Arctic (have for a century). Imagine the Arctic Ocean as a pie. The north Pole as the center point of the pie. The slice of the pie that radiates out from the Pole to the eastern and western edges of Canada is claimed by Canada. That radiating out to where Russia's coast touches Norway faning 6000 miles east to where Russia almost touches Alaska is the even bigger slice always claimed by Russia. The US doesnt believe in Sector claims (and our artic coast -that of northern Alaska - is tiny compared the Russian and Canadian Arctic ocean shores anyway). I believe Denmark may have a modest sector claim radiating out to its colony of Greenland. No one else as sector claims in the Arctic, though the ANTarctic is covered by sector claims by dozens of countries - claims that overlap and contradict each other.
Though these sector claims have been there for the whole 20th Century no one thought much about them (its all just ice up there so who really cares?). But now these claims might become real claims.
That silly seeming Russian stunt of planting that flag on the sea bottom could be a harbinger of serious things to come. Canada, and its commonwealth ally the UK, with tacit support from the US might become very territorial about the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean much like Russia already is about its half of the watery top of the world. But these trends are more likely to make the North Pole a flash point between the Anglosphere and Russia than to cause sudden cooperation between Russia and the Anglosphere against everyone else.
Russia's claim is based on the Law Of The Sea, that is, the Continental Shelf of Russia continues north, their claim is, the boundary is half way between the Canadian Continental Shelf, and the Russian Shelf. By this measure, Russia owns most of the Arctic.
Recently Russian military bases on Arctic islands have been reactivated. Russia owns most of the world's icebreakers.
A recently approved claim north of Japan, the sea inside a line of Russian islands, including ones captured from Japan, is not international waters, it is an inland sea, belonging solely to Russia. They are making the same claim inside their Arctic islands.
The shortest route from China to Europe is through the Russian Arctic. A high speed rail line is being built from China to Saint Petersburg, to a Baltic Port.
Russia is not going to war with its European customers.
The continental shelf doesnt go that far. The middle of the arctic ocean where the Pole is located is beyond the reach of the continental shelf of either continent. But the sea bottom is claimed by Russia all of the way to the Pole.
