Always bet on the Brits -BREXIT is happening

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kraftiekortie
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24 Jun 2016, 7:37 am

I would say that Scotland will probably opt for independence because of this.

I don't think Brexit was a good move, either.



The_Face_of_Boo
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24 Jun 2016, 7:41 am

Darmok wrote:
Your unruly child, America, congratulates you on your independence, UK.

[img]http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-brexit.png[/img



Independence from what?

That isn't like France gaining independence from Nazis, that's more like Texas voted to be out of US, and it got itself isolated from the other states (which would be a disservice for all sides).



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24 Jun 2016, 7:44 am

I wonder if cousin queenie will show her "Grumpy Cat" expression over all this.


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24 Jun 2016, 7:52 am

what is the extent of this market crash.i mean are we talking great recession again.


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vermontsavant
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24 Jun 2016, 7:57 am

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Darmok wrote:
Your unruly child, America, congratulates you on your independence, UK.

[img]http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-brexit.png[/img



Independence from what?

That isn't like France gaining independence from Nazis, that's more like Texas voted to be out of US, and it got itself isolated from the other states (which would be a disservice for all sides).
its just independence from an abstract economic union..EU nations are still soveriegn nations otherwise england could not have voted there way out themselves.


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vermontsavant
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24 Jun 2016, 8:00 am

the EU is a voluntary merger of soveriegn nations


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GoonSquad
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24 Jun 2016, 8:29 am

Darmok wrote:
Some folks down along the US border are calling for Texit to be next. :mrgreen:

As a NONresident of Texas, I would LOVE to see them go.


PS
To the main topic:
Posted for irony...


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24 Jun 2016, 10:32 am

Stocks fall 2% after Brexit surprise with Dow off 400 points

People will throw all sorts of tantrums today then find a way to do business, rearrange globalism, and screw the average person. There will be a bigger financial panic if Trump is elected and unless he literally blows up the world they will find away to do business with and in authoritarian America. If he is to obstinate they will kill him.


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24 Jun 2016, 10:46 am

The Scottish question is an interesting one, I'm not sure they are serious about another referendum. The economic case for Scotland leaving was destroyed when oil dropped, this referendum would be about Scotland joining the EU afterwards, but the EU looks like it's on the precipice. Even if the EU survives the Spanish will foil any Scottish attempt to join because of their Catalonia issue.

As for the market shuddering, give it a few days, I'm betting on a stabilisation pretty shortly, maybe even in favour of Britain vs the rest of the EU bloc.


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CommanderKeen
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24 Jun 2016, 10:50 am

Any day the EU looses power is a good day.



The_Face_of_Boo
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24 Jun 2016, 11:22 am

Mikah wrote:
The Scottish question is an interesting one, I'm not sure they are serious about another referendum. The economic case for Scotland leaving was destroyed when oil dropped, this referendum would be about Scotland joining the EU afterwards, but the EU looks like it's on the precipice. Even if the EU survives the Spanish will foil any Scottish attempt to join because of their Catalonia issue.

As for the market shuddering, give it a few days, I'm betting on a stabilisation pretty shortly, maybe even in favour of Britain vs the rest of the EU bloc.


English government has no say anymore (it was a return favor for Spain's stance against Scotland's independence from UK) in the Catalonia issue; so Spain will be probably all alone in this and won't be able to justify her grasp on Catalonia for long...

Interesting times indeed.



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24 Jun 2016, 11:35 am

It's the disaster we were all expecting.

No surprise, the Leave team have admitted that much of what they were saying was made up, and our economy seems to be in real trouble.

Best case scenario, public appetite for a second referendum grows and we vote to stay in. This seems very unlikely.

Second best case, we trade our rebate for total control of our borders. I cannot see this happening.

Next, we "leave without leaving" and become another Switzerland or Norway. Although this would be good for the country (though not as good as staying), it would really annoy most of the people who voted Leave. I'd give this a 60% chance.

Worst case scenario, we actually leave. 40% chance, but hopefully even Gove will look to avoid it.

Mikah wrote:
Even if the EU survives the Spanish will foil any Scottish attempt to join because of their Catalonia issue.

My hope is that Scotland votes to divorce the rest of the United Kingdom, but we implement it as if England, Wales, and Northern Ireland had all decided to leave Scotland. Scotland effectively "becomes" the UK and takes our EU place, complete with rebate, currency, and borders. The rest of the UK would be a newly-formed independent country.



Mikah
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24 Jun 2016, 11:48 am

Too soon to tell if it's really a disaster this is just the people who called the referendum wrong panicking, latest reports said we hurt other European business worse than we hit our own. Amusing.


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TheSpectrum
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24 Jun 2016, 11:51 am

The_Walrus wrote:
My hope is that Scotland votes to divorce the rest of the United Kingdom, but we implement it as if England, Wales, and Northern Ireland had all decided to leave Scotland. Scotland effectively "becomes" the UK and takes our EU place, complete with rebate, currency, and borders. The rest of the UK would be a newly-formed independent country.

This would suit me fine. NI also want out so if they became the new UK or a northern territory and we became our own independent nation then I think it would allow everyone to move in the direction they wish to go (albeit the Eng/Welsh remain camp)


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24 Jun 2016, 11:59 am

Well, with the PM's resignation, it looks like there's two primary scenarios.

If the Parliamentary party backs Boris or Michael, then Article 50 and the negotiations begin. I expect the EU opening offer to be, "EFTA. Take it or leave it." And given that EFTA means continuing to pay the bills and accept free movement of people, I don't see that flying. Meanwhile, the UK doesn't have any trade negotiators. They haven't negotiated a trade agreement for decades--all those public servants are working in Brussels. Which means the FCO is going to have to go on a massive recruitment drive (Note to self: watch the recruitment pages...) The likelihood that Johnson or Gove could negotiate a new agreement out of whole cloth in the time available seems slim to nonexistent.

The other possibility is that the Parliamentary party opts for a pro-EU or neutral leader of the Conservatives, who advises Dissolution If an election were fought were fought on whether or not to trigger Article 50, could UKIP be held to a hung Parliament?


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Mikah
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24 Jun 2016, 12:05 pm

^ I wouldn't bet on either major party surviving this. The majority of elected MPs were for remain.


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