It's the disaster we were all expecting.
No surprise, the Leave team have admitted that much of what they were saying was made up, and our economy seems to be in real trouble.
Best case scenario, public appetite for a second referendum grows and we vote to stay in. This seems very unlikely.
Second best case, we trade our rebate for total control of our borders. I cannot see this happening.
Next, we "leave without leaving" and become another Switzerland or Norway. Although this would be good for the country (though not as good as staying), it would really annoy most of the people who voted Leave. I'd give this a 60% chance.
Worst case scenario, we actually leave. 40% chance, but hopefully even Gove will look to avoid it.
Mikah wrote:
Even if the EU survives the Spanish will foil any Scottish attempt to join because of their Catalonia issue.
My hope is that Scotland votes to divorce the rest of the United Kingdom, but we implement it as if England, Wales, and Northern Ireland had all decided to leave Scotland. Scotland effectively "becomes" the UK and takes our EU place, complete with rebate, currency, and borders. The rest of the UK would be a newly-formed independent country.