14 Nov 2016, 6:17 pm
14 Nov 2016, 7:35 pm
The_Walrus wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Nope, you're wrong. Nate didn't predict the winner as he did in the past,
No, he predicted a close race that had a 1 in 3 chance of going to Trump if lots of things went his way. You know, that thing that happened
If he'd predicted a 97% chance of a Clinton win then yeah laugh in his face (although of course even 97% is not 100%).
Imagine you have a three sided spinner, with two sides saying A and one side saying B. It is to be spun once.
Jacoby: It will definitely land on B! Unless it's rigged!
Nate: There is a 1 in 3 chance of it landing on B, and a 2 in 3 chance of it landing on A.
The spinner is spun and lands on B.
Jacoby: HAHA! I was right!
Nate: I knew this was possible.
Jacoby: You know nothing, you were hedging! B! B! B!
Silver isn't wrong if the outcome he says is most likely doesn't happen; he's no more "wrong" about Trump winning than he would have been if Clinton had won exactly the states he forecast, or even if she won 400 electoral votes. He's wrong if something the model declared impossible actually happened (DC voting Republican, Clinton winning Idaho), or if the model assigned the probabilities incorrectly.
It's nonsense since he's right either way in your eyes, like I said it's like a weatherman getting credit either way for saying there's a 20% chance of rain every day. Silver's little probability thing was at like 85% not too long before the vote and really narrowed it in the last few days.
You are really simplifying my explanation of the polls which I did not ignore but rather I dug in the tabs and methodologies to find my own interpretation of them. They skew these polls by screwing with the sampling like by say only counting independents as 12% when it's at least 3x larger. Almost all of these polls had Trump will nil black support which obviously was not the case, they seemed to mostly get the Hispanic vote right since I think most people expected Trump to do better than Romney(going against the he's too toxic to attract Hispanics narrative), go read Wikileaks about how they manipulate polls.
Saying you were less wrong than others doesn't make you right, I was right and Nate Silver was wrong. Deal with it!
14 Nov 2016, 7:41 pm
Campin_Cat
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14 Nov 2016, 7:44 pm
14 Nov 2016, 7:58 pm
Campin_Cat
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14 Nov 2016, 8:59 pm
14 Nov 2016, 9:13 pm
