LostInEmulation wrote:
The stock exchanges are shortest term indicators. we must NOT use them to comment on the long-term outlook of the economy unless we combine them with lots of additional data. Yes, the companies have issues getting loans, thus they are facing a hard couple of months. Even banks have issues getting short term loans. Yes, this means they are in serious short term problems, but I think many companies still have a good long-term outlook.
I am seriously considering buying stocks now... Won't get them as cheap anytime soon! And I bet that in one year, I'd have made a huge profit!
You're underestimating the seriousness, and depth, of the situation. The outlook for Europe and the US is bleak -- very bleak. The worst is yet to come. Not only will banks and insurance companies go under, but many other companies, large and small, who not only can't raise finance, but will find the market for their goods and services has shrunk dramatically. Unemployment will rise to levels not seen since the 70s, and those in work will have their wages frozen. Moreover, it's likely that anti-western forces will use this period of weakness to their advantage -- use your imagination there.
I'd think it unlikely you'd make significant money on the markets within the timeframe you specified, unless you're a professional, or well-informed amateur. Of course, you might be lucky, but considering how things are developing, you'd be better off putting the equivalent of a year's salary split between several relatively-safe deposit accounts in your own country, after you'd checked-out what your government is guaranteeing, if anything. After you've done that, then it's certainly worth it if you're looking at 10+ year period.