Russian army has invaded the Crimea

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I find this thread extremely bizarre. In all fairness, though, the same goes for the situation.

The Kiev government will not last past the first payroll missed.

They have to feed a 180,000 strong military. No pay, and no food, it ends quickly.

Their main production is corn and wheat, and the next harvest is in six to eight months.

Their Febuary gas bill was $440 million. They owe the IMF a big payment. Soon there will be a lot less money in circulation,which means no food in the shops.

Now is the time to invest, to plow, fertilize, plant, and tend the crop. That takes money.

They will have nothing to eat but the seed stored for planting.

Putin can take all his troops to the Navel Base and just wait.

Just because the Crimea votes to join Russia, it will not happen the same day.

They and the other Russian areas will vote in the next election, and they won the last one.

Just holding things together till the May 25 election will cost $3 Billion.

After taking $3 Billion from Russia, and falling behind on their gas payments, they owe Russia some $5 Billion.

The tap is on, the gas bill rises. They also have to import Gasoline and Diesel.

Ukraine needs about $2 Billion a month just to stand still.

They will also draw down food and fuel supplies through Europe. Prices for grain are already rising.

No matter who wins the next election, Europe is still on the hook for all the costs of supporting the Ukraine.

Overall, Europe is in recession, Russian gas is the cheapest, and they pay for it with manufactured goods.

Other sources, paying cash, the Greek and Spanish Models will spread. A long Depression.

A partition of the Ukraine would reduce the cost by half, and continues good economics with the Russians.

After the next election it will be done by The Ukraine Government. So it will all be legal and everyone saves face.

Economics will win, it always does.

Here we go:

http://rt.com/news/us-navy-black-sea-482/

That was long scheduled and the US wouldn't send a single destroyer to fight the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The US will stick to diplomacy and sanctions.

Other than ongoing costs and recent unpaid bills, the Ukraine has $140 Billion in long term debt, most bearing more than 6%.

So interest only payments are $9 Billion a year.

Both the IMF and the EU have said more loans will have to be used to pay off outstanding loans.

Economic adjustments are being demanded, raising the price of gas, fuel, food, and cutting government benefits, payrolls and pensions.

Also the EU trade deal calls for them to buy from Europe, not the cheap supplies they have been getting in trade with Russia, which has been over $4 billion. Ukraine goods are now barred from Russia, their largest trading partner.

Even seen as a trade war, Europe has little to gain from the Ukraine Market, and a lot to lose in Eurobonds.

The effects on Ukraine are worse. The Europe IMF cash flow stops, and the Russian gas and food stops.

It is one of the best grain fields on earth, and the whole country needs to be plowed, fertilized, planted, about now. That is a lot of diesel, tires, tractor parts, fertilzer, seed. Labor needs to be paid. Even more energy and labor is needed to harvest and store the crops.

Their main source of income is in doubt.

Even with the loans as investment, discounted fuel prices, Ukraine income has been dropping for decades. Their cost of production is high, with many small farms.

One bad year could bankrupt everyone.

The time to fight a famine is before it starts.

The EU/US have messed this up so badly. Now the Russians have taken Crimea and they will not give it back because they don't care what the rest of the world thinks of it, and the EU has to pay to prop up what's left of Ukraine. So far the EU is the big loser and they don't even realise their hissy fit will not change the situation in Crimea. Any sanctions will only cost EU citizens more money but apparantly no one cares about that anymore.

The deal offered by the EU did not include menbership, or even being considered a candidate for membership.

The same for NATO.

The offer was from a collection agent for a debt. Raise prices, cut wages, and pay on the debt.

The Russian offer to their brother nation was for even lower gas prices, and free trade in the lower priced Russian Market. Besides that they would buy $15 Billion of the debt.

This offer did not exclude trade with the EU or anyone else.

The Ukraine produces grain, it is worth more than oil, and will not run out. Production could be doubled, the market would buy it.

The Russian lifeline was a way to get out of debt and maintain the level of living.

The EU lifeline comes with eturnal serfdom.

Eastern Europe, EU and Non EU, has very low wages, $15 a month, Doctors make $30.

Wage cuts and raising fuel prices leaves no money for food.

Without free to low cost education, health care, rent, fuel, and food prices, these people would starve.

The EU demand is unrealistic.

Referendum is done, people overwhelmingly voted for Crimea to become part of the Russian Federation. US and EU don't recognize the referendum.

Crimea does not recognize any EU or US Overlords.

80% voter turnout, 95.5% voting to be a Republic joined to the Russian Federation.

Other areas of the Ukraine also want to vote.

May 25, the next election, even without Crimea, only two million out of 46, pro Russian voted in the last President, and there will be a new government in the Ukraine.

The US, UK, EU, NATO, the UN all fully support a government in Kiev that will cease to exist in 70 days.

The Ukraine people cannot vote for freedom, freedom will be imposed upon them from the West!

Sanctions in light of, the Russians supply the space station. The Russians have allowed America to move troops and machines into Afganistan, and they all have to be out by the end of the year. Close that gate, and they can walk out through Pakistan. Also Russian choppers are the only ones that can fly high enough to resupply in Afganistan.

American banks have $25 Billion in loans in Russia. Germans have $60 Billion invested.

Europe's economy runs on Russian gas. The French pay in aircraft, other nations in manufactured goods, Russia is a big customer.

A 1% downturn in the world economy would be a disaster. Syria still needs ten million people fed, given health care, education, and Chinese exports are down.

It would not take much to cause a long term recession.

Thing is, no vote would be recognized as legitimate under international law when a foreign army is the soil of said country and the vote is in favor of the owner of said foreign army.

Quite frankly, the only option the Ukraine has now is to call Putin's bluff by mounting a military offensive. If Russian forces engage the Ukranians then Putin loses any hope of getting out of the consequences of this little landgrab of his. There won't be war with NATO but the economic effect, sanctions and essentially loss of trust in all things Russian will cost them dearly.

Yeah, you'd think Putin would have some sense and stop now. That's what all the effort has been about anyway. The West ultimately does not care about Crimea but if you don't send a message on day one you have less momentum to challenge further aggression on day ten. And some NATO nations worry that on day 15 it's their turn. Certainly worth making a stink about.

Merkel isn't riding this train for fun.

The Crimea is the new Sudatenland.

ruveyn