2020 Presidential Campaign - It’s on

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Joined: 20 Apr 2019
Age: 34
Gender: Male
Posts: 744

23 Apr 2019, 8:17 am

ollychan wrote:

so now we have

democratS :

booker

buttigieg

castro

delaney ?

gabbard

gilibrand

gravel ...

harris

hickenlooper ??

inslee

klobuchar

messam

o'rouke

ryan

sanders

swalwell

warren

williamson

yang

moulton

biden

republican:

trump

weld

and the fascinating part..

libertarian:

kokesh

mcafee

supreme (...)

vohra

istvan

independent:

shultz

cuban

akon

green:

hunter

others:

kroell

rattiner

schriner

plus other write-in animals such as harambe.

its style is in alignment with the rest of the world now..

likely libertarians are going to cost republicans some votes , and independents democrats.

http://ronniekroell.com

meet michael bublé in the middle <3

Then we have a McAfee-Kokesh-Istvan Troika endorsed by Gary Johnson .. ???

Then we have Howard Shultz ft Mark Cuban endorsed by Akon ...??

And Dario ..

Then we have Trump ..

While the dems have Kamala Harris & Pete Buttigieg vs Bernie Sanders & Stacey Abrams .. truly curious what the black and brown heteros would choose ..

while halfway of the primary debate the concept of VAT and UBI starts to merge into one ..

Democrats campaign slogan in its final form :

People Over Corporations , Therefore Vote For Me : Kamala-Buttigieg-Bernie-Biden-Warren-Beto-Booker-Julian-Gilibrand-Gabbard-Klobuchar-Delaney-Gravel-Inslee-Abrams-Swalwell-Messam-Ryan-Williamson-Moulton-Hickenlooper-Yang !

Darmok
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23 Apr 2019, 4:32 pm

Latest D polls. The Democrats are definitely the party of youth and diversity! Nothing says "Democrat" better than two ancient white males. :lol:

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Sweetleaf
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23 Apr 2019, 4:35 pm

I like Andrew Yang, so perhaps he will get my vote in the primaries...UBI is the future so might as well get to work on it now.

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Sweetleaf
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23 Apr 2019, 4:39 pm

Darmok wrote:

Latest D polls. The Democrats are definitely the party of youth and diversity! Nothing says "Democrat" better than two ancient white males. :lol:

It's still very early...also people already know Bernie and Biden so perhaps that has some to do with why they are currently the front runners.

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Tim_Tex
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23 Apr 2019, 6:13 pm

Sweetleaf wrote:

Darmok wrote:

Latest D polls. The Democrats are definitely the party of youth and diversity! Nothing says "Democrat" better than two ancient white males. :lol:

It's still very early...also people already know Bernie and Biden so perhaps that has some to do with why they are currently the front runners.

What are your thoughts on Hickenlooper?

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1stSauce
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24 Apr 2019, 6:18 am

ollychan wrote:

http://ronniekroell.com

meet michael bublé in the middle <3

Then we have a McAfee-Kokesh-Istvan Troika endorsed by Gary Johnson .. ???

Then we have Howard Shultz ft Mark Cuban endorsed by Akon ...??

And Dario ..

Then we have Trump ..

While the dems have Kamala Harris & Pete Buttigieg vs Bernie Sanders & Stacey Abrams .. truly curious what the black and brown heteros would choose ..

while halfway of the primary debate the concept of VAT and UBI starts to merge into one ..

Eek!! It's Jerry Springer!! !

Harpuia
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24 Apr 2019, 3:22 pm

My thoughts and odds of each candidate winning their nomination:

Republicans:
Donald Trump - He is the incumbent. I don't see anyone really legitimately stopping him. Despite being an ignoramus, he's done much of what he's promised, even if some of it is backhanded. People say he's turned the Republican party into the party of evil, but I feel evangelical Christians did that a decade ago, Trump's just turning up the heat. I predict no one will primary challenge him. Chance of nomination: 99.9%

Mitt Romney - Only person I could see that if the stars aligned, could give Trump a run for his money. Problem is most Republicans see him like some apostate now. So his chances are about lottery-good atm that he overtakes Trump. Chance of nomination: 0.1%

Bill Weld - HAHAHAHAHA no. Chance of nomination: 0%

Democrats (those that I know of):
Joe Biden - One of those "if only it were 2016" candidates. I'm not quite sure what he's trying to do here. He's just seen as a likable guy because of his VP under Obama, but he doesn't really have much else. He's also pretty old, so a lot will depend on who he picks as VP. However, he is first in the polls right now, so I have to take that into account that as of right now he is the mathematical favorite, but not by much. I don't think he keeps momentum. Chance of nomination: 25%

Bernie Sanders - Another of the "if only it were 2016"s. He's shifted his policy a bit to appease to the AOC-progressive style liberals, which is a little concerning. He's denounced a lot of his more moderate/conservative overtones, as few as they are like gun control and Israel. That might give him the nomination but it's probably gonna make him a weaker candidate against Trump. He won't be starting with double digit margins like he did 4 years ago because of it, and Trump's campaign could close that gap pretty easily. Chance of nomination: 23%

Kamala Harris - My personal favorite pick (not based on who I agree with, only on who I think can pick up momentum in the end). She is where the "smart money" is, the "establishment". People say she's a lot like Hillary, but her demographics put her at a really good advantage to win the nomination and there's still a lot of time there. The media had been talking about her arrival since 2016. Only thing that's going to hurt her is her time as a cop and how tough she was on crime back then, but that might be old hat come primary time. Chance of nomination: 20%

Cory Booker - Yawn. Chance of nomination: <0.1%

Pete Buttigieg - I like his style, but his more religious overtones I feel like will turn off the base as I mentioned in another thread. I think he has a small chance of winning the nomination, but I feel like he's going to have to make some drastic changes to his platform or rallying style in order to do it. Chance of nomination: 7%

Elizabeth Warren - Another "if only it were 2016" candidate. She's basically like Sanders but is promising the progressive base the world on a string. I have a weird feeling she's gonna get lost in the shuffle though. I haven't really seen much coverage on her, especially lately. There's still time, and she's still IMO one of the four favorites at this point though. Chance of nomination: 20%

Beto O'Rourke - It's just not his time yet. He's definitely getting lost in the shuffle right now, and even losing a short rivalry with Buttigieg. He should try again in 4-8 years. Chance of nomination: 3%

Amy Klobuchar - Being a moderate just won't cut it. Chance of nomination: 1%

Andrew Yang - I like the guy. I like his policies. He's my #1 pick. But realistically, from personal testimony and sentiment from my FB friends, the DNC will NEVER EVER vote an Asian man in as their nominee. EVER. At least as they currently are. He would have a better chance primarying Trump, and even that I'd still cap it at about 0.2%. It certainly doesn't help the media is saying his policies attract those of the alt-right which I honestly think is a smear campaign. But if he does, somehow, win the nomination, I do think he has the best chance of holding momentum against Trump and outdoing him in almost every aspect outside of maybe financial coffers. Don't count on it though. Chance of nomination: 0%

The rest I also am putting down at 0%.

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Kraichgauer
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24 Apr 2019, 4:44 pm

Harpuia wrote:

Weld doesn't have to defeat Trump for the Republican nomination, or even put up a strong showing at the GOP convention. The very fact that Trump has a rival in his own ranks might be spelling doom for his Presidency. Every sitting President who has been challenged by someone in his own party has lost reelection - - Jimmy Carter challenged by Ted Kennedy, George Bush taken on by Pat Buchanan. When Bobby Kennedy ran for the Democratic nomination, Lyndon Johnson could feel a change in the political wind, and announced he would not seek reelection, as he recognized that an internal challenge meant perhaps an irreparable split in the party.

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Tim_Tex
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24 Apr 2019, 5:46 pm

This is the second election cycle where I could legally run for the office myself. However, since I know no wealthy donors (I’m not even currently working right now), I would be forced to run as an independent, in a state where even a Democrat still can’t win statewide office (and would barely squeak by if they did).

We haven’t had a Democratic governor or senator since Ann Richards and Bob Kreuger, respectively. Krueger was a caretaker appointed by Richards after Lloyd Bentsen became Treasury Secretary under Clinton. Kay Bailey Hutchinson won the 1993 special election for the seat.

Anyway, I would rather run for lieutenant governor in 2022, if I’m still living here.

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Sweetleaf
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24 Apr 2019, 6:05 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:

Sweetleaf wrote:

Darmok wrote:

Latest D polls. The Democrats are definitely the party of youth and diversity! Nothing says "Democrat" better than two ancient white males. :lol:

It's still very early...also people already know Bernie and Biden so perhaps that has some to do with why they are currently the front runners.

What are your thoughts on Hickenlooper?

I would have to find out more what his platform is, currently there is not a lot of info on his campaign page about his positions on the issues or what he would do to solve them.

He did improve healthcare in my state, did not stand in the way of pot being legalized but that is all I really know about him, oh and he started a brewery at some point in his life. If he were elected I think he would at least be a competent president but that is all I can say so far.

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ollychan
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25 Apr 2019, 7:39 am

Darmok wrote:

Latest D polls. The Democrats are definitely the party of youth and diversity! Nothing says "Democrat" better than two ancient white males. :lol:

ASPartOfMe
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25 Apr 2019, 3:14 pm

Joe Biden Announces 2020 Run for President

Quote:

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. announced Thursday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020, casting the election as a national emergency and asking Democrats to put the task of defeating Mr. Trump above all their other ambitions.

In a three-and-a-half minute video that focused on excoriating Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden presented himself as a steely leader for a country wracked by political conflict. Unlike the wide field of Democrats competing for the affections of the left, Mr. Biden avoided almost any talk of policy or ideology, signaling that he believes voters will embrace him as a figure of stability and maturity even in a partisan primary election.

In doing so, Mr. Biden, 76, is making a bet of sorts that the Democratic Party’s leftward shift in recent years has been greatly overstated, and that the moral clarity of his rhetoric and his seeming strength as a general election candidate will overpower other considerations for Democratic voters who tend to prize youth, diversity and unapologetic liberalism.

Laying out for the first time why he wanted to run for president, Mr. Biden invoked the white supremacist march through Charlottesville, Va., that ended in bloodshed in 2017, and Mr. Trump’s comment that there were “very fine people on both sides.” In that moment, Mr. Biden said in the video, “I knew the threat to our nation was unlike any I’d ever seen in my lifetime.”

We are in the battle for the soul of this nation,” Mr. Biden said, warning that if Mr. Trump is reelected, “He will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation, who we are, and I cannot stand by and watch that happen.”

Mr. Trump did not respond to Mr. Biden’s denunciation of his response to Charlottesville, responding instead with a taunt, calling Mr. Biden “Sleepy Joe” and deriding the Democratic field as having “demented ideas.”

In a sign he may recognize the urgency of that task, Mr. Biden recently spoke privately with Anita Hill, who was in 1991 was questioned harshly by a Senate committee led by Mr. Biden after she accused Clarence Thomas, now a Supreme Court justice, of sexual harassment. Mr. Biden expressed regret, according to an aide, who declined to specify when the conversation took place.

The dividing line in Democratic politics around Mr. Biden’s candidacy was immediately apparent on Thursday morning. He was instantly endorsed by a number of prominent party moderates, including Senators Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Doug Jones of Alabama and Chris Coons and Tom Carper, both of Delaware.

At the same time, one of the more influential liberal activist groups, Justice Democrats, issued a scathing statement rejecting Mr. Biden as an option in the race and describing him as a symbol of the Democratic establishment that was unable to stop Mr. Trump in 2016.

“The old guard of the Democratic Party failed to stop Trump, and they can’t be counted on to lead the fight against his divide-and-conquer politics today,” said Alexandra Rojas, the group’s executive director, in a statement.

Mr. Biden unveiled a list of about two dozen senior aides to help steer his political operation and confirmed that a longtime adviser, Greg Schultz, would be his campaign manager. Among the staffers were Symone Sanders, a highly visible spokeswoman for the Bernie Sanders campaign in 2016, and Michelle Kwan, the Olympic ice skater who worked for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Kate Bedingfield, a spokeswoman for Mr. Biden, said on Thursday that Mr. Biden had gone somewhat further in a personal conversation with Ms. Hill.

“They had a private discussion where he shared with her directly his regret for what she endured and his admiration for everything she has done to change the culture around sexual harassment in this country,” Ms. Bedingfield said.

Biden's sloppy launch may cost him

Quote:

Former Vice President Joe Biden officially launched his presidential campaign on Thursday. He couldn't have done it in a more awkward, authentically challenged way — via a video message.

The 76-year-old front-runner-for-now is apparently following the dubious strategy of 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Clinton also launched in a perfectly homogenized, almost Hollywood-like production of her campaign four years ago.

The problem is, a video doesn't connect or inspire voters the way a live announcement in front of a raucous crowd could. Now Clinton and Biden share one very big thing in common: a campaign launch lacking energy.

There's also reported squabbling among Biden's advisers leading up to the big day. It reportedly got so bad that one former Biden aide told Time recently that he's "never seen anything so half-assed." Tell us how you really feel ...

They’re improvising and doing last-minute planning. The guy has been running for President since 1987 and can’t figure the basics out, like where to stand on his first day? This should make everyone very nervous," the former aide added.

Then there's the matter of Biden's schedule. Instead of spring-boarding off all the media coverage he'll undoubtedly command on Thursday, Biden will again mimic Clinton in taking a long weekend break before making his first campaign stop on Monday in Pittsburgh.

With 20 other Democrats running for the nomination — and thereby slicing up the press coverage pie multiple ways — waiting four days before appearing on the stump is not taking advantage of his position as the candidate with the best name recognition.

Then there's the issue of fundraising. This headline in Tuesday's New York Times is an ominous one: "Joe Biden Plans to Enter the 2020 Race on Thursday. He’s Starting With $0."

The story goes on to underscore just how far behind Biden is, with no tangible small-donor base.

"It is an urgent task, especially for a politician not previously known as a prolific fund-raiser," the Times story reads.

Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has raised $26.6 million, $10 million of which remain from his last presidential bid and Senate campaign.

"Mr. Biden begins at $0, and it would take his raising more than $100,000 every day until Christmas just to match what Mr. Sanders had banked at the start of April," the Times notes.

And then there's what one would have believed was Biden's best asset — the kind who can overcome fundraising deficits or stumbling out of the gate: his former boss. Obama left office with an eye-popping 59 percent approval rating. Given how polarized the country has been for the past decade, any president approaching 6-in-10 approval is something any candidate would love to have as their chief endorser.

But curiously, Obama will not endorse his vice president out of the gate, sources told The New York Times in a February report. Remember how the headlines used to describe the relationship between Obama and Biden?

Add it all up, and you have Biden launching a presidential campaign through a pre-packaged video, infighting in the campaign before it has even launched, no events planned for days after launching, a huge lag in fundraising, and the president he worked for won't endorse him when he needs it most.

The old saying goes: It’s not how you start that’s important, but how you finish.

Biden better finish strong, because the start couldn't be going much worse.

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JonWood007
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26 Apr 2019, 12:43 am

As far as who I think will win on the democratic side:

Tier 1 (best chance): Biden, Bernie

Tier 2 (could come up in polls and compete with frontrunners): Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Beto, maybe Yang

Tier 3 (little chance): Everyone else

As far as who I want on the democratic side:

Tier 1 (favorite candidates): Bernie, Yang

Tier 2 (they're still okay): Gabbard, Warren, Williamson

Tier 3 (they make me cringe but there's worse): Gillibrand, castro, harris, buttigieg

Tier 4 (candidates I actively despise): Virtually everyone else, but let me just say I dislike biden in particular

As far as who I think will win:

I think the democrats will beat trump. Trump BARELY won, and had every factor going for him. Like the fact that he's our president the first time is virtually a fluke that only happened because the democrats put forward such a terrible candidate after 8 years of incumbency in an environment where people were clamoring for change. The democrats stand to win big in 2020. I think trump is unpopular and that at the very least some people who supported trump last time have some trumpgret and are unlikely to support him again, especially in swing regions like the rust belt. Even more so if the democrats put forward a candidate that actually has a vision that resonates.

I'm personally of the opinion bernie would've won in 2016 if he were the nominee and that he is most likely going to be our next president. It's not a guarantee, but that's my educated guess of how the race will go. I think biden will decline over time and lose popularity. I think bernie's fan base is relatively passionate and loyal. And I think bernie's populism will beat trump's in the general.

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ASPartOfMe
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26 Apr 2019, 4:48 am

JonWood007 wrote:

Those are all the reasons the Democrats nominee SHOULD be a lock to beat Trump. If they lose to him again it would be a much worse failure then 2016 because at that point a Trump presidency seemed like an improbability and as you say Hillary won't be the candidate.

Yet I still see the Democrats doubling down or enabling wokeness and identity politics with things like supporting reparations. Reparations is an economic issue. Heck, even Biden in his video today was praising the people fighting back against the "Unite the Right" in Charlottesville as heroic. They were not as bad as Nazi's but most of them were Antifa thugs that were looking for a fight as much as the Nazis. The pandering of Biden an others is obvious. If the economy is good at election time I can see enough people saying I will vote for the crazy status quo I know rather then taking a chance on the other crazies.

Going back to the Dem primaries a different factor this election cycle is strategic voting, ie. voting for the candidate one does not prefer the most but has the best chance to win. While that has always been a factor but it has never remotely this intense, beating Trump is seen as the last hope of preventing authoritarianism. The conventional wisdom is this helps Biden, the theory being that a stereotypical older white guy has a better chance of winning. But what if enough dem primary voters think nominating a "moderate" has been a loser before and will be a loser again? And do not forget a lot of primaries have open primaries Republicans can vote for the democrat. Having no primary of their own they will vote for the most woke or socialist Dem candidate that they think will help Trump. This factor makes predicting how it will go a fool's game IMHO.

Polls are looking at Democrats, not Democratic primary voters and caucus-goers. Name recognition is a big thing at this point.

Harpuia
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26 Apr 2019, 6:25 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:

JonWood007 wrote:

That's been my strategy since I could vote in 2004. Whenever we get to the general election there is never really one candidate that I particularly like. Just one I dislike more.

This was definitely so in 2016. Hillary Clinton was an absolutely horrid candidate. The DNC did not listen to their constituents and let the primary run out fairly. They gave her the win before Bernie had a chance to get off the ground. The fix was up and some people were just sick of it. I was tempted to vote Trump after hearing he was going to attempt to keep and maybe improve Obamacare, and it didn't help I was having issues with liberal peers going all subtly racist on me (for being half-Asian) which was a shock for me back then but not near a shock now. So I didn't vote for either one in '16.

Trump turned out to not know what the heck he is doing, and in the one major issue that is important to me, healthcare (due to Asperger's, Crohn's, PTSD, and lactose intolerance), he just passed the ball to the Republican establishment. Screw that. I'm voting Dem regardless of if I like them or not this time.

But let's not kid around. Trump IS the incumbent. The incumbent has an advantage. He will have more money this time, likely a financial advantage over his opponent esp. if the Democrat establishment's choices (Biden, Harris, Booker?) don't win. He already has a plan against the top two (Biden/Sanders) although v. Biden he is REALLY missing the mark on his insults. (Creepy Joe, not Sleepy Joe you idiot). Trump was not supposed to win last time. He lost the popular vote and only won because he lucked out on the Midwest. That's where this is going to come down to again, except this time he has a proven track record of winning there.

I don't think Trump is a lock to win, far from it. But the Democrats are actually going to have to hustle this time. Trump has "champion's advantage".

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ollychan
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29 Apr 2019, 4:13 am

its britney b****..

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