Trump's various attempts to challenge election results

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Fnord
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14 Dec 2020, 10:18 am

roronoa79 wrote:

This sounds to me like a case of confusing correlation with causation...

A primary characteristic of conspiracy theories is that there are no coincidences, only hidden agents.

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14 Dec 2020, 12:59 pm

https://www.stevegruber.com/2020/12/exc ... g-systems/

Preliminary analysis of some Dominion voting machines by Allied Security Operations Group (ASOG).

1.) ASOG’s bottom line is found on page 1: We conclude that the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election results.
2.) Item 6: The allowable election error rate established by the Federal Election Commission guidelines is of 1 in 250,000 ballots (.0008%). We observed an error rate of 68.05%. This demonstrated a significant and fatal error in security and election integrity.
3.) Item 15: Significantly, the computer system shows vote adjudication logs for prior years, but all adjudication log entries for the 2020 election cycle are missing.
4.) Item 16: Likewise, all server security logs prior to 11:03pm on November 4, 2020 are missing. Other server logs before November 4, 2020 are present, therefore, there is no reasonable explanation for the security logs to be missing.
5.) Item 19: This is clear evidence of software generated movement of votes. The claims made on the Office of the Secretary of State website are false.
6.) Item 22: we conclude that the errors are so significant that they call into question the integrity and legitimacy of the results in the Antrim County 2020 election to the point that the results are not certifiable. Because the same machines are used in 48 other counties in Michigan, this casts doubt on the integrity of the entire election in the state of Michigan.

ASOG also recommends an independent group be empaneled to further evaluate the findings and determine the extent of adjudication errors.

Redacted report here (code brackets because url isn't playing well with forum)

Code:

https://www.depernolaw.com/uploads/2/7/0/2/27029178/antrim_michigan_forensics_report_[121320]_v2_[redacted].pdf

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Fnord
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14 Dec 2020, 1:09 pm

Steve Gruber is a tabloid journalist, not a computer/software engineer. He is also a COVID-19 denialist.

Whatever he claims to have "found" should be investigated by real experts, and not used to boost his fanbase.

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14 Dec 2020, 1:20 pm

Tsk. A classic ad hominem, Fnord?
I'm having a look at the pdf and so far it's making very interesting reading. Not all of it can be explained away by the careless IT procedures found.

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Fnord
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14 Dec 2020, 1:33 pm

Seeing as how this is only a preliminary report from one person, and that a tabloid journalist from an eponymous AM radio talk show is declaring the report as de facto proof of the entire 2020 presidential election being invalid, it is safe to say that (1) more research is needed, (2) by persons and institutions not associated with either political party, and (3) a clearly defined causal chain must be shown between the relatively few abnormalities and the entire electoral process.

Failing that, Joseph Biden will be sworn in as president on 2020-01-20 at 12:00 noon.

Not only is the Trump administration grasping at straws, but they have made this the "Birther" conspiracy of 2020.

Sad.

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14 Dec 2020, 1:38 pm

Mikah wrote:

https://electionwiz.com/2020/12/12/fraud-investigator-who-sought-to-disprove-sidney-powell-says-his-analysis-shows-biden-did-1-5-better-where-dominion-machines-were-deployed-expert-recommends-audit

Fraud Investigator Who Sought to Disprove Sidney Powell Says His Analysis Shows Biden Did 1.5% Better Where Dominion Machines Were Deployed. Expert Recommends Audit.

According to the source cited in the above blog post:

https://fraudspotters.com/statistics-ab ... ion-fraud/

Quote:

Our study is as follows:

- Null hypothesis: Dominion machines are not associated with change in voter outcomes
- Alternative hypothesis: The presence of Dominion machines affects election outcomes.

To do this study, we will link results from 2008 to 2020 by each county, parish, or in some cases city. Since this is usually based on county, we will refer to it as county in this article.

By comparing the county to itself, we are constructing the test similar to how a drug company would test the effects of its proposed therapy. In this case, we have 3,050 counties that do not have Dominion in 2008. In 2020, 657 of the counties have Dominion while 2,388 do not. If we assume that the same societal forces are acting upon all of these counties equally, then in comparing the average change from 2008 to 2020 for Dominion counties versus non Dominion counties, we should have a similar change in voter share. In this regard, it is as if Dominion is the proposed treatment, and non-Dominion is the placebo.

Emphasis mine.

Societal forces do not act upon all counties equally. Examples:

1) Various societal forces act differently on rural counties than on urban counties.

2) Predominantly-white counties are likely to perceive the BLM protests differently from the way they are perceived in predominantly black or multi-racial counties.

3) Different counties differ in the proportion of tech-savvy people living in them.

So the idea that "the same societal forces are acting upon all of these counties equally" is a key mistaken assumption on which this study is based.

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Last edited by Mona Pereth on 14 Dec 2020, 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Cornflake
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14 Dec 2020, 1:39 pm

Oh I agree with all your points Fnord and likewise, I'm looking forward to Biden being properly sworn in as president - but nevertheless, the pdf is still worth a read. Unlike the "Kraken Whisperer" Powell et al it's not simply the ravings of a loony and I'd be interested to hear your take on it.

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Mikah
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14 Dec 2020, 1:53 pm

Cornflake wrote:

Not all of it can be explained away by the careless IT procedures found.

Yeah. Putting the potential fraud aside, some of the stuff in there just makes someone fairly computer literate cringe in despair.

Besides the sin of using Windows in the first place for such machines:

c)Hard Drive not Encrypted at Rest
d)Microsoft SQL Server Database not protected with password.
e)Democracy Suite Admin Passwords are reused and share passwords.
f)Antivirus is 4.5 years outdated
g)Windows updates are 3.86 years out of date.
h)When computer was last configured on 04/10/2019 the windows updates were 2.11 years out of date.
i)User of computer uses a Super User Account

Guuuuuuuhh.

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14 Dec 2020, 4:01 pm

Mikah wrote:

Putting the potential fraud aside, some of the stuff in there just makes someone fairly computer literate cringe in despair.

Besides the sin of using Windows in the first place for such machines:

c)Hard Drive not Encrypted at Rest
d)Microsoft SQL Server Database not protected with password.
e)Democracy Suite Admin Passwords are reused and share passwords.
f)Antivirus is 4.5 years outdated
g)Windows updates are 3.86 years out of date.
h)When computer was last configured on 04/10/2019 the windows updates were 2.11 years out of date.
i)User of computer uses a Super User Account

Guuuuuuuhh.

Agreed. These and similar sins are committed by all sorts of entities that ought to know better, e.g. in the medical field, despite potential severe penalties for data breaches under HIPAA.

Going forward, there needs to be better security in electronic voting. Among other things, in my opinion, all the software used on such machines should be open source, not proprietary, so it can easily be scrutinized by a multitude of experts across the political specrum. Voting machines should not entail any proprietary "trade secrets."

Fnord
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14 Dec 2020, 4:04 pm

Allied Security Operations Group, a Texas-based cybersecurity firm that has assisted the Trump legal effort, declared that the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election results. Trump Lawyer Jenna Ellis claims that ASOC is an "Independent Team".

Trump's attorneys have seized on the case to allege problems with the tabulators, which are used in Antrim and in most Michigan counties and in many states around the nation.

It seems that there may be a conflict of interest in this "investigation". Let's see how it plays out once tabulators are turned over to some really independent investigators.

Besides, even if their findings can be validated, only those tabulators they examine could be said to be affected. Antrim county has a population of only about 24,000 people. How many votes from that number could be thrown out and still have Mr. Biden sworn in as President?

All of them.

GGPViper
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14 Dec 2020, 4:21 pm

Fnord wrote:

And the co-owner of Allied Security Operations Group (ASOG) - Russ Ramsland - is a failed Republican congressional candidate.
https://ballotpedia.org/Russ_Ramsland

Fnord
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14 Dec 2020, 4:24 pm

GGPViper wrote:

Fnord wrote:

And the co-owner of Allied Security Operations Group (ASOG) - Russ Ramsland - is a failed Republican congressional candidate.
https://ballotpedia.org/Russ_Ramsland

Yes ... it is all very suspicious ...

Who is to say that this organization associated with Donald Trump did not plant the "evidence" themselves? There is trouble with hiring outside the legal system: (1) There is no vetted chain of evidence involved like that of the FBI or NSA, and (2) Hired "investigators" always seem to find exactly what those who hire them want them to find.

As I said, very suspicious.

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14 Dec 2020, 9:37 pm

Wisconsin Supreme Court rejects Donald Trump's election challenge; electors vote for Joe Biden

Quote:

Wisconsin's 10 presidential electors cast their votes for President-elect Joe Biden on Monday, hours after the state Supreme Court denied President Donald Trump's last-ditch effort to overturn the election result.

In a 4-3 ruling written by conservative-backed Justice Brian Hagedorn and joined by the court's three liberal-backed members, the court said instead of seeking to cancel people's votes after they were cast, the campaign should have challenged the rules voters and clerks relied on before the election. Most of those rules have been in place for several previous elections and apply statewide.

In their dissents, the three other conservative-backed members on the court made clear they considered at least some of the challenged election procedures unlawful and wouldn't have ruled out tossing many of the ballots.

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Fnord
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15 Dec 2020, 10:28 am

36 Days, 4 hours, 2 minutes to go...

The_Walrus
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15 Dec 2020, 10:47 am

Electronic voting machines shouldn’t be used - it’s as simple as that. There’s no way to do it securely.

That being said, I think the states in question do require that physical ballots also exist and these can be compared with the results.

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15 Dec 2020, 4:27 pm

The_Walrus wrote:

A bit of a contradictory post.. “There’s no way to do it securely,” followed immediately by.. how it is in fact done securely.

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