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Looks like Glenn Beck is right on Inflation

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Inuyasha
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19 Apr 2011, 6:37 pm

Telekon wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
If we default, then we pretty much cause several countries to suffer big time, plus the value of the dollar would collapse, because everyone would consider our dollar to be of the same value as used toilet paper.

If the Republicans can force the spending cuts like what is in Ryan's plan or better to get into law, then the conditions change.


Why would the dollar collapse? The effect would be deflationary.


If we default it is the same as saying our word is worthless, couple that with the insane printing of money, the results are inflationary not deflationary.



Telekon
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19 Apr 2011, 7:10 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
If we default it is the same as saying our word is worthless, couple that with the insane printing of money, the results are inflationary not deflationary.


Why would a sovereign default be coupled with debt monetization? You either do one or the other.



pandabear
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20 Apr 2011, 9:26 am

Because Glen Beck wants both.



ruveyn
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20 Apr 2011, 10:03 am

pandabear wrote:
The US government is not going to default.


What if the Chinese stop buying U.S. paper?

ruveyn



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20 Apr 2011, 11:06 am

ruveyn wrote:
pandabear wrote:
The US government is not going to default.


What if the Chinese stop buying U.S. paper?

ruveyn


If that happens, the the US government will have very few options.

It is unlikely to happen, because the Chinese hold so much US paper that it would be disastrous for China if the US defaulted. Still, it is possible, if the Chinese get ticked off over Taiwan or some other issue.

I still think that the best option is to try to trade the state of Texas to China in exchange for debt forgiveness.



Inuyasha
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20 Apr 2011, 2:11 pm

pandabear wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
pandabear wrote:
The US government is not going to default.


What if the Chinese stop buying U.S. paper?

ruveyn


If that happens, the the US government will have very few options.

It is unlikely to happen, because the Chinese hold so much US paper that it would be disastrous for China if the US defaulted. Still, it is possible, if the Chinese get ticked off over Taiwan or some other issue.

I still think that the best option is to try to trade the state of Texas to China in exchange for debt forgiveness.


No how about we just give them the state of California which is due to drop into the ocean anyways, should be a lot easier for them to tow to China.



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20 Apr 2011, 4:33 pm

No, Texas would be a better fit. Both Texas and China believe in low wages and capital punishment. And, a certain president from Texas got us into this fix in the first place.



Inuyasha
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20 Apr 2011, 4:35 pm

pandabear wrote:
No, Texas would be a better fit. Both Texas and China believe in low wages and capital punishment. And, a certain president from Texas got us into this fix in the first place.


:roll:

The problem stemmed from the Community Reinvestment Act, and Bush did actually push for reforms.

The other part of the problem stemmed from the fact the people supposed to enforce the regulations were oogling naked people instead of doing their jobs.

UPDATE:

A dollar plumbing three-year lows is hitting Americans squarely in the gas tank, and one economist thinks it could drive prices as high as $6 a gallon or more by summertime under the right conditions.

With the greenback coming under increased pressure from Federal Reserve policies and investor appetite for more risk, there seems little direction but up for commodity prices, in particular energy and metals.

Weakness in the US currency feeds upward pressure on commodities, which are priced in dollars and thus come at a discount on the foreign markets.

One result has been a surge higher in gasoline prices to nearly $4 a gallon before the summer driving season even starts, a trend that economists say will be aggravated as demand increases and the summer storm season threatens to disrupt oil supplies.

"All we have to have is a couple badly placed hurricanes which could constrain some of the refinery output capacity in some key locations," says Richard Hastings, strategist at Global Hunter Securities in Charlotte, N.C. "If you get weakness in the dollar concurrent with the strong driving season concurrent with the impact of one or two hurricanes in the wrong place, prices could go up in a quasi-exponential manner."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42683030



psychohist
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20 Apr 2011, 11:28 pm

pandabear wrote:
The US government is not going to default.

I don't know about that. There's a small chance the fight over the debt ceiling will run long enough for Obama to have to start cutting, and he might well choose to default over cutting something else.



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20 Apr 2011, 11:30 pm

Under Bush, who had control of the purse strings, the Senate, the House or the President, and who made up the House, and the Senate? Bush was no penny saver but to blame him for all misdeeds is laughable. :lol:

My vote is for California. Half of 'em are already communists and after living under a communist or even a truly socialist environment maybe they'll learn the hard way.


Gold is at $1500. If that is not a wake up call then I don't know what else would be. 8O



Inuyasha
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21 Apr 2011, 12:03 am

Nil_Nil wrote:
Under Bush, who had control of the purse strings, the Senate, the House or the President, and who made up the House, and the Senate? Bush was no penny saver but to blame him for all misdeeds is laughable. :lol:

My vote is for California. Half of 'em are already communists and after living under a communist or even a truly socialist environment maybe they'll learn the hard way.


Gold is at $1500. If that is not a wake up call then I don't know what else would be. 8O


The Democrats are just stuck on blaming Bush and don't particularly care that the facts contradict them.



Inuyasha
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24 Apr 2011, 9:32 pm

UPDATE:

Weakness in the US dollar, which is causing everything to go up—including gas prices, food and stocks—is unlikely to go away soon as a selling frenzy hits the currency market.

The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies.

A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way.

In short, as trader Dennis Gartman noted Thursday, "the rout of the US dollar" is in full effect.

"Panic dollar selling is setting in," Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter," wrote in his daily commentary. "This may carry farther than any of us dream of or, worse, have nightmares of."

How low can it go?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703813

So is anyone here going to admit that Beck is actually right yet? I would personally like to put pressure on politicians to stop their fiscal insanity before the situation gets much worse.



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24 Apr 2011, 11:13 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
UPDATE:

Weakness in the US dollar, which is causing everything to go up—including gas prices, food and stocks—is unlikely to go away soon as a selling frenzy hits the currency market.

The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies.

A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way.

In short, as trader Dennis Gartman noted Thursday, "the rout of the US dollar" is in full effect.

"Panic dollar selling is setting in," Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter," wrote in his daily commentary. "This may carry farther than any of us dream of or, worse, have nightmares of."

How low can it go?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703813

So is anyone here going to admit that Beck is actually right yet? I would personally like to put pressure on politicians to stop their fiscal insanity before the situation gets much worse.


I thought that bet was based on the price of bread.
gold price is a worthless metric of inflation.


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We must not buy their fruits:
Who knows upon what soil they fed
Their hungry thirsty roots??

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Inuyasha
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24 Apr 2011, 11:37 pm

JakobVirgil wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
UPDATE:

Weakness in the US dollar, which is causing everything to go up—including gas prices, food and stocks—is unlikely to go away soon as a selling frenzy hits the currency market.

The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies.

A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way.

In short, as trader Dennis Gartman noted Thursday, "the rout of the US dollar" is in full effect.

"Panic dollar selling is setting in," Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter," wrote in his daily commentary. "This may carry farther than any of us dream of or, worse, have nightmares of."

How low can it go?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703813

So is anyone here going to admit that Beck is actually right yet? I would personally like to put pressure on politicians to stop their fiscal insanity before the situation gets much worse.


I thought that bet was based on the price of bread.
gold price is a worthless metric of inflation.


Prices are going up across the board, people are trying to get rid of US Dollars in their possession in foreign markets, if our money is considered worthless prices will go through the roof..,



JakobVirgil
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24 Apr 2011, 11:39 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
JakobVirgil wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
UPDATE:

Weakness in the US dollar, which is causing everything to go up—including gas prices, food and stocks—is unlikely to go away soon as a selling frenzy hits the currency market.

The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies.

A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way.

In short, as trader Dennis Gartman noted Thursday, "the rout of the US dollar" is in full effect.

"Panic dollar selling is setting in," Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter," wrote in his daily commentary. "This may carry farther than any of us dream of or, worse, have nightmares of."

How low can it go?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703813

So is anyone here going to admit that Beck is actually right yet? I would personally like to put pressure on politicians to stop their fiscal insanity before the situation gets much worse.


I thought that bet was based on the price of bread.
gold price is a worthless metric of inflation.


Prices are going up across the board, people are trying to get rid of US Dollars in their possession in foreign markets, if our money is considered worthless prices will go through the roof..,


but the action is on the price of a loaf of bread.


_________________
?We must not look at goblin men,
We must not buy their fruits:
Who knows upon what soil they fed
Their hungry thirsty roots??

http://jakobvirgil.blogspot.com/


Inuyasha
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24 Apr 2011, 11:42 pm

JakobVirgil wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
JakobVirgil wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
UPDATE:

Weakness in the US dollar, which is causing everything to go up—including gas prices, food and stocks—is unlikely to go away soon as a selling frenzy hits the currency market.

The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies.

A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way.

In short, as trader Dennis Gartman noted Thursday, "the rout of the US dollar" is in full effect.

"Panic dollar selling is setting in," Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter," wrote in his daily commentary. "This may carry farther than any of us dream of or, worse, have nightmares of."

How low can it go?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703813

So is anyone here going to admit that Beck is actually right yet? I would personally like to put pressure on politicians to stop their fiscal insanity before the situation gets much worse.


I thought that bet was based on the price of bread.
gold price is a worthless metric of inflation.


Prices are going up across the board, people are trying to get rid of US Dollars in their possession in foreign markets, if our money is considered worthless prices will go through the roof..,


but the action is on the price of a loaf of bread.


If the price of gasoline and diesal go through the roof, then the price to harvest grain goes up, then there is the backing into loaves of bread (I'm oversimplifying deliberately here) then it has to be transported to the store using gasoline that its price has significantly risen, which in turn causes the price of bread to go up.

EDIT:
The combination of rising gasoline prices and the steepest increase in the cost of food in a generation is threatening to push the US economy into a recession, according to Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners.

Johnson looks at the percentage of income consumers are spending on gasoline and food as a way of gauging how consumers will fare when energy prices spike.

With gas prices now standing at about $3.90 a gallon, energy costs have now passed 6 percent of spending—a level that Johnson says is a "tipping point" for consumers.

"Energy is not quite as essential as food and water, but is a necessity in today's economy, and when gasoline costs more than bottled water—like now—then it takes a huge bite out of disposable spending," he said, in a research note.

Of the six US recessions since 1970, all but the "9-11 year 2001 recession" have been linked to—of not triggered by—energy prices that crossed the 6 percent of personal consumption expenditures, he said. (During the shallow 2001 recession, energy prices had risen to about 5 percent of spending, which is higher than the long-term 4 percent share.)

What may make matters worse this time around, is there has been a steep increase in food prices that occurred as well. In other recent recessions food costs were benign, at between 7.5 percent and 7.8 percent of spending.

This year food prices have climbed 6.5 percent since the beginning of early January, according to Consumer Growth Partners.

"The combined increase in the necessities of food and energy creates a harsh double whammy for already stressed consumers," Johnson said. The last time this happened was in the recession that lasted from 1973 to 1975.

Johnson estimates that food and energy eat up about 15 percent of consumer spending at today's prices, compared with about 12.7 percent two years ago.

Of course, at lower income levels, these percentages are much higher. One sign of the stress some consumers are already feeling is that some AAA offices have already seen an increase in out-of-gas service calls, as motorists try to put off filling their tanks or drive around trying to seek out the gas station with the least expensive price.

Also some regions are being hit harder than others. Gas prices in Hawaii continue to set new highs, according to AAA data. The average price on Wednesday was $4.51, topping the prior record of $4.50 for a gallon of regular unleaded set in July 2008.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42704213