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ruveyn
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14 Mar 2010, 8:42 am

Sand wrote:

It is foreseen that in 20 years robots will have all the capabilities of human thinkers. They will be far advanced from hammer swingers and will function more efficiently than humans.

Many decades ago I was in the AI (so-called) business. More than twenty years ago the same prophecy was made. It looks like AI will be twenty years down the road and controlled nuclear fusion will be thirty years down the road as it is been for the last fifty five years.

Since I have been there, done that and even got the t-shirt my guess is that we will not have generalized AI in twenty or even two hundred years. What we might have are some darned clever specialized robots to assist us in our tasks. Clever robots could be our surrogates in physically dangerous environments. Wouldn't it be interesting if we could interface robots to our nervous systems and get sensory feedback from them. Something like that could happen. The intelligence would still reside in human brains but a robot could be extensions of our bodies, particularly our arms and hands.

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Sand
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14 Mar 2010, 8:49 am

ruveyn wrote:

Sand wrote:

It is foreseen that in 20 years robots will have all the capabilities of human thinkers. They will be far advanced from hammer swingers and will function more efficiently than humans.

Human surrogates is much closer. They fly over Afghanistan everyday and blast wedding parties.

ruveyn
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14 Mar 2010, 9:04 am

Sand wrote:

Human surrogates is much closer. They fly over Afghanistan everyday and blast wedding parties.

Our tax dollars, at work.

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PLA
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14 Mar 2010, 10:19 am

Sand wrote:

By definition the average IQ is 100 and that is not particularly spectacular. Robots should be able to surpass it without too much trouble.

The operational meaning of "100" should be adjusted according to the average, so it ought be hard to say much concrete about the 100 of the future. Still, it's true that the average can't be spectacular.

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ruveyn
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14 Mar 2010, 10:50 am

PLA wrote:

Sand wrote:

By definition the average IQ is 100 and that is not particularly spectacular. Robots should be able to surpass it without too much trouble.

Half the robots built will be below average, regardless of what average means.

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Obres
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14 Mar 2010, 10:58 am

ruveyn wrote:

Sand wrote:

It is foreseen that in 20 years robots will have all the capabilities of human thinkers. They will be far advanced from hammer swingers and will function more efficiently than humans.

Besides, AI has largely fallen out of favor, victim to social trends and market forces.

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14 Mar 2010, 8:14 pm

Sand wrote:

You misunderstand my point. I am not in any way a Luddite. I heartily approve of the coming technological advances. I am merely pointing out that our social accommodation to them is archaic and there are powerful socio-economic elements that will try to maintain the crumbling old relationships for their own exclusive benefits and the resulting disasters will be catastrophic.

Ah, I see. That is a much more defensible position. Still, I think you exaggerate the rigidity of our social structure. We will likely have some bumps in the road during whatever social transition will follow, but I don't know if I would characterize it as "catastrophic." Remember that our current socio-economic system is still a relatively novel construct.

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14 Mar 2010, 10:12 pm

Orwell wrote:

Sand wrote:

The trend in these last ten or so decades has been to sequester much of the immense benefits of technological advance to those in control of production and finance. The novel products, of course, benefit everybody but the financial rewards have unerringly been mostly destined to the controlling classes. Although wages have risen the value of the money has dropped drastically and the idiotic conflict between management and labor where labor is considered a necessary nuisance to be dispensed with where possible totally sabotages the flow of wealth that must be maintained for production-market relationships. Robots would totally disrupt this basic social relationship.

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14 Mar 2010, 10:45 pm

Sand wrote:

Income inequality is probably somewhat less extreme now than it was during Carnegie's heyday. I will grant that the gap has widened in the past 10-15 years, but that is a relatively recent phenomena. For most of your lifetime, we have moved towards being more egalitarian, not less. The Industrial Revolution also led to a growing income gap, and then after a social shift and resettling, incomes started to equalize again.

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Robots would totally disrupt this basic social relationship.

That's what people said about the sewing machine. Anyways, if our social relationships turn out to be outmoded, we can adjust them. We've done it before.

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Sand
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14 Mar 2010, 11:34 pm

Orwell wrote:

Sand wrote:

Quote:

Robots would totally disrupt this basic social relationship.

That's what people said about the sewing machine. Anyways, if our social relationships turn out to be outmoded, we can adjust them. We've done it before.

OK. I am not optimistic. The idiots run the world.

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15 Mar 2010, 12:33 am

That would be awful, robots running the work place and then ruling the world..

It would turn into like judgement day. >_<

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Sand
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15 Mar 2010, 1:02 am

MissConstrue wrote:

That would be awful, robots running the work place and then ruling the world..

It would turn into like judgement day. >_<

It would depend, of course, on who programmed the robots. The greedy a**holes in control at present could (and probably will) do major damage.

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15 Mar 2010, 1:27 am

Sand wrote:

MissConstrue wrote:

That would be awful, robots running the work place and then ruling the world..

It would turn into like judgement day. >_<

It would depend, of course, on who programmed the robots. The greedy a**holes in control at present could (and probably will) do major damage.

You mean, like, they could take total control and do what ever they want?

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Sand
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15 Mar 2010, 2:31 am

Fuzzy wrote:

Sand wrote:

MissConstrue wrote:

That would be awful, robots running the work place and then ruling the world..

It would turn into like judgement day. >_<

It would depend, of course, on who programmed the robots. The greedy a**holes in control at present could (and probably will) do major damage.

You mean, like, they could take total control and do what ever they want?

I mean they have little regard for human beings and none at all for the environment. Their policies vigorously pursued could turn the Earth into Mars or Venus to no one's advantage.

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15 Mar 2010, 5:09 am

Maybe you should learn to program robots.

ruveyn wrote:

Since I have been there, done that and even got the t-shirt my guess is that we will not have generalized AI in twenty or even two hundred years. What we might have are some darned clever specialized robots to assist us in our tasks.

That may well be better than generalized AI. Consider that generalized human intelligence evolved to help humans survive and reproduce, often at the cost of their competitors. If such competition is unavoidable (a big if), how long would we last in a competition with robots that are smarter than us?

Are we mere players in the merciless game of evolution? Or do we have the power to rewrite the rules?

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Sand
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15 Mar 2010, 5:13 am

DrizzleMan wrote:

Maybe you should learn to program robots.

ruveyn wrote:

If we create robots smarter than us we definitely are rewriting evolution.

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