Looks like Glenn Beck is right on Inflation

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Oh, and since the economy is nowhere near full capacity, I think the idea that printing money will lead to hyper-inflation is bunk.

Well, for a lot of politics for nations derived from England, aren't the Republicans (of the 80's and 90's at least) somewhat analogous to the Liberal Party in Australia and Canada and the Democrats (of the same time period and including present day) analogous to the Labour Party?

Okay, in absolute terms Canada's most rightwing party represented in the legislature (the Minority Governing Conservatives) are probably closer to DLC Democrats than moderate Republicans. But, in terms of relative position on the spectrum and the cross-section of society they represent, here's how things go....

Conservative Party of Canada => Rightwing Party
Liberal Party of Canada => Centrist Party
New Democratic Party of Canada => Leftwing Party

Conservative Party of Britian => Rightwing Party
Liberal Democrats (UK) => Centrist Party
Labour Party of Britian => Leftwing Party

Liberal Party of Australia => Rightwing, neoliberal party
Labor Party of Australia => Supposedly "leftwing" party, yet institutes a lot of the austerity measures that the Liberal Party has.

Are the american "left" as prone to hero worship as the right?
I can't think of a single figure that has universal acclaim or is the equivelant of Beck.
John Stewart? Cobert? Chomskey?
comedians, linguists?

Garrison Keillor of NPR?

Garrison Keillor of National Public Radio?

Kinda ironic, since Stewart and Chomsky have pretty different views when it comes to the role of American foreign policy and what counts as war crimes.

Though a Comedian is also the most revered figure of the American Right.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAyCNxl8I54&NR=1[/youtube]

Those 3 videos that the thread originator posted are the most that I have listened to Glen Beck to date.

For someone with a basic high school education, Mr. Beck isn't too bad at explaining some simple economic concepts to others who also have a basic high school education. Some of it is correct, and some of it isn't. I'm sure that he has hired a few people to help out with his show.

I remember the inflation of the Nixon/Ford/Carter years, and I keep expecting it to come back, but for some odd reason it hasn't yet. Probably because of the Chinese being willing to lend our government infinite amounts of money. Back in the old days, Red China was the enemy.

If inflation recurs, then the nominal value of my home will go up, and my SSDI will go up (we had two years without an increase). And, while interest rates were at historic lows, I refinanced my mortgage. So, I'm not too worried.

It will be just another cycle of bubble and bust.

If only George Bush had not become our president, then we wouldn't be wallowing in so much debt. But, he was, and we are stuck with the consequences.

The clip had Beck predicting $23 for a loaf of bread this year, and similarly absurd prices for other staple foods.

$0.88 is a pretty good price for bread. The area I live in now has a relatively high cost of living, and fewer options for non-yuppie supermarkets. A loaf of good wheat bread is normally marked at a little under $4 (I think $3.8x is usual) but it's on sale at half price nearly every other week.

Orwell, you should understand the reasoning, it is actually quite simple.

In economics, hyperinflation is inflation that is very high or "out of control". While the real values of the specific economic items generally stay the same in terms of relatively stable foreign currencies, in hyperinflationary conditions the general price level within a specific economy increases rapidly as the functional or internal currency, as opposed to a foreign currency, loses its real value very quickly, normally at an accelerating rate.[1] Definitions used vary from one provided by the International Accounting Standards Board, which describes it as "a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% (26% per annum compounded for three years in a row)", to Cagan's (1956) "inflation exceeding 50% a month." [2] As a rule of thumb, normal monthly and annual low inflation and deflation are reported per month, while under hyperinflation the general price level could rise by 5 or 10% or even much more every day.

A vicious circle is created in which more and more inflation is created with each iteration of the ever increasing money printing cycle.

Hyperinflation becomes visible when there is an unchecked increase in the money supply (see hyperinflation in Zimbabwe) usually accompanied by a widespread unwillingness on the part of the local population to hold the hyperinflationary money for more than the time needed to trade it for something non-monetary to avoid further loss of real value. Hyperinflation is often associated with wars (or their aftermath), currency meltdowns, political or social upheavals, or aggressive bidding on currency exchanges.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Can't happen here you say, well actually it can.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said the central bank is “monetizing debt” with its purchases of U.S. Treasuries, a program that he says may spur inflation.

“Yes, we are monetizing debt,” Hoenig said today in a speech in New York. “You buy bonds and you monetize debt. Right now, a lot of that is going into excess reserves so it is not having an immediate effect on inflation. It will initiate inflationary impulses. It takes time.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-0 ... -says.html

So yeah Beck's statements actually do stand a chance of happening who knows if it will quite reach what Beck predicted, but it would be bad.

In a step that will be one of the markers on the road to economic and financial catastrophe, the Federal Open Market Committee (otherwise known as the FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, made a bombshell policy decision on August 10, 2010, one fraught with dangerous long-term consequences for the American and global economy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-f ... 77483.html

That is from a leftwing source that fits your ideology.

Anyways:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CB30rDkIucE[/youtube]



Didn't deficit spending start skyrocketting after Democrats took control of congress, remember the Legislative Branch has the power of the purse, not the Executive.

It's easy to always be the doomsayer when you don't have to be accountable for your predictions in any way.


Inuyasha, I know more econ than you do. Don't quote wiki at me as though it's something I've never heard of.


"Can" is very different from "will." Anything "can" happen. It's completely meaningless to say that something is possible, or that something "could" happen. What matters is what is actually likely and plausible.


I don't read Huffington Post. But by all means, continue to make crass assumptions about my "ideology."

Enough of the evasion. Beck is predicting that a loaf of bread will cost in excess of $20 this year. I'm willing to consider even the much more conservative estimate of $10/loaf. Will you commit to that prediction in any way whatsoever?

So, a good two or so days after screaming at Jamieboy for using wikipedia as a source to tell you about how godawful UK's "The Sun" tabloid is, you use wikipedia as a source on inflation? I thought you said you have a "very good" memory.

Would you rather I use Encyclopedia Brittanica, I have a complete set in the basement, but they you would be yelling that you couldn't check my source... I'm using wikipedia to get a definition so that other people here can understand it, not using it to support an ideological point.



I don't make bets, I don't gamble, etc.

1. I presented the case.

2. I provided sources to back the case up (and I did exclusively use Glenn Beck).

Have you even bothered to listen to what was said or read the articles?



You sure don't act like it, in fact you've kinda demonstrated that you don't know all that much about economics. I may not be an economics expert, but I've pretty much been flying rings around you on this subject.

Are you going to argue that monatizing the debt is a good thing? If so, let me be the first to say you are out of you cotten-pickin mind.



I am not saying it will happen for sure because there are things that can happen still that could head this off, for starters the Republicans drawing a line in the sand with drastic spending cuts and not budging. If things remain status quo, it is not a question of if, it is a question of when.



Then what do you get your news from Moveon.org, mediamatters? Cause you typically recite the far left talking points.





As I said before, I don't make bets, further there are quite a few things that can happen that could stop this from happening. Primarily it is either the Democrats suddenly have some fiscal sanity or Republicans finally get a backbone and draw a line in the sand.

The indicators are there that this will happen Orwell within the next few years, it may not be this year, but at the rate things are progressing it is probably within the next 1-5 years or less.

Now are you going to admit that the facts presented based on historical precident is a cause for concern or are you going to continue in the dishonest practice of trying to get me to make sweeping predictions so if I get even a minor detail wrong you will say I have no credibility. You have tried this tactic on me before Orwell. It didn't work before, in fact you got called out about it. It will not work on me now.

Yeah, sure.


Are you going to argue that someone with only a very tenuous grasp on the English language really is likely to know anything about economics?

Anyways, some amount of inflation would be good for the US export market, and given our current balance of trade our export market could use some help. We are very very far away from anything even remotely like hyperinflation.


No, if things remain status quo it is not a question of either if or when. It simply will not happen if everything remains status quo.


Wrong again.


Inuyasha, you don't even have any idea what the far left looks like or what their talking points are. I assure you, they hate me just as much as you do.


You don't have to put money on it, if that's what has you worried. Just agree that if the prediction does not come true, Beck was wrong.


You don't understand how those historical precedents relate (or don't relate) to the modern situation in America, and neither does Beck. We are not the Weimar Republic.


"Sweeping prediction?" I haven't asked for that. "Will the price of bread this December be greater than or less than $10?" is not asking for a sweeping prediction. Your refusal to provide any testable predictions ahead of time (but delight in reveling in "correct" predictions afterward) is the trademark of the con artist and scammer.


When? I don't recall.

The ironic thing is that investing in silver has a much higher rate of return! However, Beck, Jones et al. are always touting gold.... I wonder why....

I will cover Inayushas bet.
are subscriptions to the economist a good wager?
you when I get you one.
Ina wins you get him one?
I hate to see play go to waste.