Dangers of the Extraterrestrial Disclosure Movement

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Richard 'Hoax' Hoagland!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzCxQLCNz4A[/youtube]

Three things:

1. Given the massive size of the Universe, it is *extremely* statistically likely that (intelligent) extraterrestrial life exists.
2. Given the massive size of the Universe, it is *extremely* statistically unlikely that (intelligent) extraterrestrial life will ever (A) *visit* Earth while humans are still around, let alone succeed in (B) *contacting* Earth.
3. Mass–energy equivalence dictates that (A) is much less likely to occur than (B).

A lot of the Alien conspirators accept (1) but they often - very conveniently - tend to forget (2) and (3).

I completely agree with what you're saying, but we have to keep an open mind about it. It really is depressing to contemplate the vast distances and what you say may well be the case. I don't think SETI will ever pick anything up and I don't believe we will ever be visited by biological beings. I do believe there is carbon based life out there somewhere and it wouldn't be hard to imagine a civilisation more advanced than ourselves either now or at some point in the past. We know now that Alpha Centauri has exo planets, maybe even Proxima Centuri too! 3-5 light years is a conceivable distance for AI to travel. Sure there are some serious propulsion issues with regards to our own current available technology, but they wouldn't need to travel at the speed of light. Maybe these stars don't have planets in habitable zones or the organic chemistry required, but who knows? We really know so little. If (and I don't believe they do) any government has anything alien in their possession it will be technology they simply can't comprehend. I could understand them keeping that a secret.

One thing that's really important to remember - all of what's being said above is coming from a steadfast 100% certainty that consciousness cannot be detected in other ways than visually seeing its physical container, nor can consciousness exist outside of physical/material bodies at all (and only as a byproduct of physical/material happenstance). If these break down, a lot of the apparent impasses go out the window but then something a little different happens as well - ie. there are many more possibilities than just terrestrial aliens.

That is as bogus as the Sedonia "face" on Mars.

ruveyn

IMO, the disclosure movement is dominated by hoaxers and dupes.

Susceptible? No, I never said that joining the disclosure movement makes people more likely to be duped. My point is that followers of that movement are being duped.

I never said that I did not believe in extraterrestrial visitation. My comments were about the conspiratorial side of the issue, such as the disclosure movement and, by extension, David Icke's weird reptoid Illuminati conspiracy.

Hoagland is a guy with no credentials who constantly repeats the mantra that he is a scientist.

Visitation is entirely possible, just not established and unlikely to be any time soon even if it is possible. We still havent counted all of the larger near earth asteroids, let alone what could be a small probe. It's beyond a needle in a haystack. And if someone saw something closer, who would believe them?

We've been broadcasting an oxygen signature for 1 billion years. The galaxy is only 100,000 ly across. Plenty of time to see us and send a robotic probe at sublight speeds if anyone was watching, interested and smart enough to do it. We'll have our own target list built within a few decades. By the end of the century we might send a probe of our own. Likely something extremely small and extremely smart.

As for alien disclosure people. People lie. I need something concrete.

How much sublight speed> if we sent the fastest vessel we had to alpha Centuri it would take 40,000 years to get there and it is only 4 ly away! That is 1/2500 of a billion years to go 1/25000 of the distance across the milky way. It does not sound too promising.

You need to get up to around 10% of light speed. At those speeds Voyager 2 would be approacing the nearest star already. Nothing we can do today.

But it may be possible. 100 years ago we were barely getting used to flight and the NYT proclaimed that rockets could never operate in space.

Not quite...

Voyager 2 is ~102 astronomical units away from Earth.

1 light-year is ~63.2 x 10^3 Astronomical Units

The AB Centauri system is ~4.37 light-years away from Earth (~276 x 10^3 AU).

Voyager 2 has traveled only ~0.037% of the distance of 4.37 light-years since its launch 36 years ago.

This means that a spacecraft traveling from the Earth to the AB Cen. system at the speed that Voyager 2 has traveled (~2.83 AU/y)would take ~97.5 x 10^3 years (276,000AU / 2.83AU/y = ~97,500y)

The speed of light ("c") is ~299,792,458 meters per second (~173 AU/day).

An object traveling at 10% of c has a velocity of ~29,979,245.8 meters per second (~17.3 AU/day).

276,000AU / 17.3AU/day = ~15,900 days, or ~43.7 years.

(Due to relativistic time dilation, "only" ~43.5 years will have passed for the object and its contents.)

The vehicle would still be 7 years out from the AB Cen. system.

All values shown (except c) are within 1% of their calculated values.

(Would someone please check and correct my maths? Thank you.)

Yeah well I guess I didn't really word that very well. My point is those dupes are willing dupes--people who choose to live in a fantasy world.

Your criticisms should be obvious to anyone anchored to reality and will be ignored by those involved in the movement.

You mean Veeger,right Fnord?

Hey! I'm not a robosexual!

How many Fnords does it take to change a light bulb?

Why not just figure it the simple way?

Alpha Centauri is 4.3 light years away. So if you're moving at ten percent the speed of light it would take you 43 years to get there.

Yoyager 2 was launched in 1977, which was 36 years ago. So if voyager 2 were moving at ten percent the SOL it would be over 80 percent the way there ( and yes...it would have seven years to go).

Done!