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The_Walrus
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16 Mar 2014, 11:38 am

thomas81 wrote:
Tequila wrote:
thomas81 wrote:
I am rather jealous of Scotland


If more than 30% vote for 'independence' I'll be very surprised.


I would prepare for a surprise then, because from what I read the latest opinion polls put the yes campaign at 47%.

Tequila is right. Thomas only is if you use statistics very badly/

The lastest Ipsos Mori poll shows support for "yes" at 32%: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014 ... ealed-poll

Recent YouGove polled put support for "no" at 53%: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3324773

You would think that the above implied 47% supporting "yes", but it doesn't, because there is a sizeable portion (12-14%) that is undecided.



Tequila
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16 Mar 2014, 12:34 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Tequila is right. Thomas only is if you use statistics very badly/

The lastest Ipsos Mori poll shows support for "yes" at 32%: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014 ... ealed-poll.


Yup - the six opinion polls taken over the last month average out at putting 'yes' side at 36.3%, the 'no' at 50.1% and the undecideds at 13.6%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_i ... _2014#2014

Out of the scores of opinion polls taken over the past two and a half years, the Independence side has only won two of them outright, and only by a single percent each time.

The 'No' side will still very comfortably win, even if it ends up being slightly more than the 30% I said I would be surprised at.



Tequila
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16 Mar 2014, 12:38 pm

thomas81 wrote:
I would prepare for a surprise then, because from what I read the latest opinion polls put the yes campaign at 47%.


Can you provide me the link? I would find that very hard to believe - almost none of the opinion polls conducted have ever shown the 'yes' side getting even 40%. (The closest is the very last opinion poll that shows 39% 'yes', 48% 'no' and 13% undecided.)