visagrunt wrote:
Second, UKIP's performance on Thursday was not actually that brilliant.
For a political party without a single MP to take top spot in the Euro elections is hard to say is anything less than brilliant.
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But it was the LibDems who were hurt the worst--not by anything that UKIP did, but rather by their own decision to enter into a coalition and become part of the Government, rather that serving on the Opposition benches and holding the balance of power in a hung Parliament. Clegg might have legitimately believed that he could do more good as a deputy PM in a Conservative led government than he could have in holding the balance of power on a budget vote, but I'm not at all sure about that--and I think a lot of LIbDem voters in the "protest vote" camp were left with little other choice than UKIP.
Historians will look back and say that Nick Clegg destroyed the Lib-Dems but I doubt that many UKIP votes came from former Lib-Dem supporters. A much higher proportion came from people who don't normally vote. Lib-Dem voters cast their votes for Labour, Green, or stayed at home.
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Third, in a First-Past-the-Post system, UKIP are hopelessly handicapped. Their constituency is diffuse--scattered across all parts of Britain, and it isn't cohesive, drawing from conservatives and socialists alike. The issues at hand in a national election are not going to be focused on Europe--they are going to be focused on the economy; on interest rates and housing prices; on employment and benefits. Immigration issues will present some wedge, but likely not enough to translate a UKIP vote into anything other than a watering down of the margins required for the main parties to take the marginals.
There is much truth to this but it is highly likely that UKIP will come third place in about 3/4 of all English constituencies beating the Lib-Dems next general election.
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The prospect of Farage leading UKIP to anything beyond a scattering of seats in Westminster appears to be remote in the extreme. What would be far more interesting is if the Conservatives can reverse some of the rot that seems to be apparent in their support, and pull off a hung Parliament in which both the LibDems and UKIP might have some influence.
A coalition with the Lib-Dems past 2015 is out of the question because they will be slaughtered and reduced to around 5 MPs at the most. The DUP will probably be the third largest party in Westminster.