Turkey downs Russian jet over syria....

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Erdogan is becoming too powerful and he's turning Turkey into Erdoganistan.

He uses religion to get the conservative Sunni Muslim vote. They vote for him no matter what, a lot like the republican "base" here in the US. Only it's about 50% of the population. They don't care how corrupt he is. Being a "good Muslim" trumps everything else.

Then why there's a huge a Armenian diaspora everywhere in the region?

I went for work before to Turkey, the anti-Erdogan bastion, I have seen their lifestyle - they (the anti-Erdogan secular turks) are in fact more liberal than Levant's Muslims, and way more similar to Christians. For instance, alcohol consumption is natural on the food table, bars/pubs are everywhere (while in Lebanon for instance, it's only in Christians areas), they hate using religious references, like for instance they refuse to use crescent symbol / references to Qur'an/Mosques/ Allah-related terminologies in greeting cards of islamic holidays.
I haven't seen any veiled woman around, except in the airport where there were turks from other areas.

I can't see how the two groups would coexist for good, and the gap is widening.

There just is no credible opposition in Russia, western liberalism is despised for the pain and humiliation it caused the country in the 90s. Yeltsin is hated, Gorbachev is hated, Putin is considered a hero for what he has done for the country. Russians simply agree and support the vast majority of what Putin does, p**** Riot is not representative of Russia.

I think we need to look in the mirror at our own democracies and shrinking civil liberties before we start attacking Russia who has only been a democracy for a quarter century. To say our media is free or that the information isn't heavily censored and propagandized would be wrong, we've just privatized it. Corporatism is the merger of the interests of government and big business, it is the economic system of fascism and look at who owns are major media outlets and what interests they represent. Outside of the US, the whole concept of freedom of speech doesn't really exist. Look at Germany for example where they put 90 year old grandmas in prison for thought crimes. We are much less free than we think or claim we are.

America is an imperialist power, the collapse of the Soviet Union didn't end the Cold War we just kept going. What happened to that peace dividend? We maintained our aggressive stance towards Russia and after a decade they really came to resent it, look at how we expanded NATO and tried to exploit anti-Russian sentiment by playing up ethnic nationalism and division. Putin came in and restored honor and prestige to the country, he reasserted Russia's role as a world power and is playing the game the same way we play it. Russia is loyal to its allies, unlike the US who broke bread with both Saddam, Gaddafi, and Assad only to sentence them and their entire country's to death. We broke bread with Mao just because he was against the Soviets too, a man that probably had more blood on his hands than Hitler. NATO should not exist, Turkey should not be in it, we have more in common with Russia and more common interests than we do Turkey or Saudi Arabia. Why is it that our so called "friends" in the middle east(Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Pakistan, even Israel) are the source of all the world's terrorism? What threat does Iran pose to us, they took some hostages from our embassy but we essentially held their entire country hostage under the dictatorship of the Shah.

We're not the "good guys", our government represents its own "strategic interests" which very rarely intersects with that of your everyday American

as for Turkey, the Kemalists altho fiercely secular aren't much better than Islamists and they have an even more extreme fascist movement in the country too. A member of that Grey Wolves movement and Turkish citizen was actually the commander of that group of "Turkmen rebels" that opened fired on the Russian pilots who had ejected, which is universally considered a war crime. The entire country of Turkey has to one of the ultranationalistic in the entire world. Turkey has to tread lightly, Russia could destroy their country without lifting a finger just as the US does to countries it doesn't like too. Kurdistan is rising and it scares the s**t out of Turkey, the US thinks the status quo can stand in the region but it can't. The borders are meaningless lines in the sand, I believe in self determination of all peoples.

There is no credible opposition because credible opposition is not tolerated. There are many parties in the Duma and they all United Russia. They operate a system of pseudo-plurality.

Freedom of information is the cornerstone of a democracy. Freedom of information is not just down to the media, it is also access to information about the government, and opposition is part of ensuring that.

The whole point of democracy is you need an opposition to scrutinise the government.

Just because a government might not be the best judge another government doesn't mean we can't judge both.

The new democracy point taken, that was rushed however thing are what they are.

Yes. I'm in a relationship with someone from Turkey. Her family and most of the people she knows are FAR more secular and liberal than most American Muslims (who mostly come from the Middle East or are converts - i.e. conservative). They are probably less religious than most American Christians. They despise Erdogan.

It makes no sense to criticize ultra-nationalism and authoritarianism in Turkey and the even the US and then approve of it in Russia. Putin is the Ronald Reagen of Russia, only worse. So what if he's popular. That doesn't make him a good leader. I'd say it's even worse that Putin has unanimous support while Erdogan at least has a sizable opposition.

Putin does have 90% support, but the other 10% want Stalin back.

Russia is a country where Islamic bombers strike in trains, airports, subways, and in the borderlands.

Grozny, Georgia, Ukraine, Russia is under attack, and they know how to fight back.

Turkey has Kurds, 20%, Assad's Awadhi sect, 25%, and there are still Armenians, and Kamal Ataturk western, secular, who have just lost the government to radical Islam. Saudi backed, ISIS supported, and NATO. Secular forces were pushed out of the military.

NATO does not get involved in civil wars. Losses will be from the Islamic factions. Democratic factions are being jailed for treason. ISIS and the Turks attacked the Kurds. Now Russia and Assad have their backs with S-400 no fly zone. France has signed on to supply anti ISIS forces, and the Germans have been supplying the Kurds for years. There are also many Kurds in Iran.

Some TOW, some SAMs, Turkey would lose. There whole southern and eastern border is Kurds. Russia has a base in Armenia.

Turkey has been declared a State supporter of terrorism, funding ISIS through oil sales, supplying weapons. They also send terrorists through Turkey, to Greece, and on to Paris. Raqqa is nothing, Turkey is the ISIS hub.

The first thing the Russians did was to kill everyone where their pilot was shot, carpet bombed the area up to the Turk border, and hammered the crossings along the border. Then the Syrian Army moved in. Aleppo is cut off, only one road left to supply Raqqa, with Syrians on one side and Kurds on the other, with Russians above.

Russia has destroyed supplies, bases, and isolated the ISIS fighters, they still hold ground, but they have been captured. They are trying to fall back to Aleppo, they are getting chewed up.

This leaves Raqqa as the only strong base left. All across the north the Kurds hold the ground, and when their last supply line to Turkey is cut, they are under constant bombardment, and the Syrian Army is coming. Raqqa is the supply line to Mosul and Anbar. Iraq and Iran have them blocked to the East.

The road south is open, but the Saudi's are beheading ISIS deserters.

So Turkey, by act of war, has put Turkey on the table as the next meal. Iraq, Iran, Syria, hate them, the Kurds and Armenians want to kill them, and their domestic population objects to the government. Topping this off, they killed some Russians in Syria.

Russia does like the market for gas, does support food imports and tourism, and can continue that under the new government.

Iran, Iraq, Syria, have come to terms with the Kurds, and would support Kurdistan if it was not in their countries, Eastern Turkey would work for all parties. Russia will keep the Black Sea passage open, so they would support Kamal Ataturk secular moderates in a democratic State.

It works for everyone except the current government, who will attack Russia in the Black Sea passage, and lose Constantinople and everything west to Greece.

Political Islam has pulled a few mass murders, and lost thousands. They do not have much of a plan.

The loss of Constantinople, Islam driven out, replaced by Christians, Greek and Russian Eastern Orthodox, is the message they need.

God wills it!

This is simply not the case.



Russia is huge.

I think the Russia did actually learn something in Chechnya admittedly, whether it will actually work long term or not I don't know. I have my doubts but it is a partial cessation. What they did is convinced some Chechen rebels to switch sides in exchange for amnesty and pampering.

The only problem is this only works if the general population is kept happy. Once they start to resent their leader's pampering and not seeing nay benefit themselves. The other issue is many of these groups, especially Islamist have simply moved into other region like Dagestan.



You mean Alawis (Alawites), there is no where near 25% of them in Turkey. What are you on about? Turkey has 74.93 million people and there is only about 750K Alawites in Turkey. The population of Syria is 22.85 million and there is about 3 million Alawites. So no country has 25% of them.



Russia is trying to sell gas not buy it. If you mean petrol that too. It is competing with the Gulf states.

The gulf states are pretty awful. The reality is there is little moral high ground when it comes to either having or needing natural resources. It makes countries dependent on regimes they otherwise wouldn't want anything o do with.

Turkish Alevis and Syrian Alawites are related, they are offshoots of Shia Islam, most of the Alawites are just refugees from Syria I believe. Turkey could be carved up like Ukraine with it's demographic and geographical divides, they've made a grave mistake to the point where I think the US gave the green light to shoot down that jet because they couldn't be that stupid. Turkey reminds me a lot of Ukraine given the prevalence of corrupt far-right forces as well as even more extreme neofascist pan-Turkic street thug paramilitaries, the difference is that Turkey is a member of NATO and much much more militarily powerful than Ukraine but Turkey is pretty much despised by all of its neighbors nor do the Arabs really for their regional aspirations either. The US needs to call Turkey and tell them to capitulate but I don't think Erdogan's ego would allow that, I think this war in the Middle East might spread, this might be the beginning of World War III.

We need new leadership in the White House pronto but the options aren't looking too good. Trump really looks more sane on foreign policy than most of the other candidates in either party minus Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders, he's all about diplomacy and the power of the deal which I find intriguing. His public persona is just that, he's not unlike a lot of other foreign leaders and is more true to the idea of peace through strength. Tulsi Gabbard said some refreshing things recently but she doesn't seem to be someone that is totally beholden to the DNC, I am hoping she takes a more independent path because this country needs more people in power like that.

While I have no love for the Soviets, I'm not surprised Turkey would shoot down a jet bombing ISIS, as they support them (even without publicly stating it), much like Saudi Arabia.

Wouldn't be surprised if both countries are giving them arms either

The Imam at the mosque, he got higher ethos and logos and pathos than you. I listen to him more. And he suspects that that Turkey from NATO shot down the russian jet because they were pushed to do this to start a third world war. Against Muslims.

That is not quite accurate, Alawites are much closer in practice to Shia, both Alawites and Alevis honor Ali but Alevis are more heterodox and incorporate Sufi elements. They are ethnically different Alevis are Anatolian/Turkmen and Alawites are Arabs/Semitic. Politically they are different too.

Also Hafez al-Assad tried to normalise Alawite practices, in some sense Sunnified in another sense brought into line with Twelve Shi'ism, at the very least he play down differences. Alevis on the other hand identify as distinct form of Islam.

Alawites have lived in turkey before the civil war. That whole coastal region of the Levant from top of Lebanon to Southern Turkey is traditionally Alawite.

Last edited by 0_equals_true on 28 Nov 2015, 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Obviously straying a few seconds for a few yards into Turkish airspace is not much of a crime. The hapless fighter plane only gave Turkey an excuse to saber rattle at Russia.

But why is Turkey so eager for an excuse to saber rattle at Russia?
What is the real issue between Turkey and Russia?



I suspect that the real issue is Russia's sudden military presence on Turkey's southern flank.
The real issue is Russia being in Syria in the first place (not that a Russian plane strayed out of Syria into Turkey for a nanosecond).

Turkey and the US are both alarmed by Putin's sudden adventurism in Syria.Turkey because Russia and Turkey have been natural territorial rivals since before the Crimean War. And the US because even during the Cold War the USSR was never bold enough to actually put Russian boots on the ground in an Arab country like Putin is doing now. Putin outflanked us by setting up airbases in Syria. So now the US can counter that by tacitly winking at its NATO ally Turkey while Turkey makes life difficult for Putin's newly built war machine in Syria.


So on top of all the other wars going on in that part of the world- we are going to restage the Crimean War (the west allied with Turkey against Russia) as well!

Or not.

How does this look from the pov of our other allies?

Assad is allied to both Russia and to Iran.

If given the choice between an Assad regime propped up in Syria by a Russian military presence, and an Assad regime propped in Syria by the obvious alternative: an Iranian military presence in Syria- Israel would prefer the first. And so would the Saudies. If Russian adventurism prevents Assad from inviting Iranian advanturism than its fine with both Tel Aviv and with Riyahd. Though it pisses off Ankara.

Turkey is a State that has been caught supporting terrorism. They supply the weapons, buy the stolen oil from ISIS, and have been bombing the Kurds. Most of the blood spilled in Syria tracks back to Turkish involvement.

The Turks laid in wait for a Russian plane, which as it did not evade the attack, had no warning, and was in Syrian airspace. Then the pilot was murdered. Turkish film crews were on site and documented it all. This took at least days to set up.

Why? Because Russia was bombing the oil tank trucks.

Under UN and International laws, Turkey is a Terrorist State, funds and arms declared terrorist groups, commits war crimes, human rights violations, crimes against humanity, and buys oil the UN has embargoed. Turkey has been bombing the Kurds in Syria. That is an Act of War.

Shooting down the Russian plane is an Act of War. Murdering the pilot is a War Crime under the Geneva Convention.

NATO does not apply if the member is the aggressor. NATO is to protect nations from attack, Turkey cannot attack Armenia, and call for NATO backup.

The UN has declared ISIS a terrorist group, and the coalition formed to fight them has crossed borders without permission, bombing them in Syria.

The same applies to the ISIS supply lines, and to their black market in oil. They are an international problem, and can be bombed wherever they are. The Turks buy oil by the truck load, and then transfer it to ships. Those ships are a target, as are ships bringing in arms. Roads, warehouses, trucks, and people involved are UN approved targets.

Turkey has committed acts of war, State support of terrorism, bought and sold embargoed oil giving aid and comfort to ISIS. As the Kurds are not a State, attacks on them outside the borders of Turkey are crimes against humanity.

Shooting down a Russian plane, just after one was bombed in Egypt, then murdering the pilot, is just dumb even for a Turk.

Georgia attacked Russians, no one would support them.

The American War in Viet Nam, a claim was made that a fishing boat attacked a US Navy ship. The Gulf of Tonkin, nothing was hit, no damage, but it was used to commit full war on North Viet Nam.

Turkey has just give Russia a full legal reason to destroy their government and military.

Also, in most of Turkey and Israel when a plane turns on the key a buzzer sounds, S-400 Radar has targeted and locked on. Turks have stopped invading Greek airspace. Turk and American planes have stayed out of Syrian airspace. The French are flying with permission.

One of the better Russian subs is off the coast of Syria, with twenty missiles, each with six to ten atomic warheads. They also have the 250 mile an hour torpedoes. Above them are Missile Cruisers.

Smart Turks, if there are any, should book a flight to the Stans, or back to Mongolia.