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The_Walrus
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12 Apr 2017, 11:16 am

If the intelligence is such that it has prompted a complete and rapid u-turn from Trump's people then I think we have to assume that it is very good.

Of course it's important that whoever replaces Assad is better, but I don't think settling for one brutal tyrant is a good idea. Syria needs peace and democracy and Bashar is a barrier to both.

I do think it's important that Russia are on board with any solution. They mustn't feel like they are being undermined. But I don't think they want better relations and closer understanding with America or anything that "extending an olive branch" would suggest. They were simply interested in exploiting America at a moment of historic weakness.



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12 Apr 2017, 11:48 am

Lets see the intelligence if there is any, I just want to see proof. I think the change in policy(which is it really isn't) was more spurred by whoever is winning these power struggles which I think Trump encourages to some degree. Mattis and McMaster seem to be the guys behind this and seem to be pretty big hawks, Trump has vowed to listen to his generals and to take take ideology out of our national security decisions or at least that is my interpretation of the 'deoperationalizing' of the NSC. The reason I liked General Flynn was because of his nuanced view on Russia and his anti-establishment credentials within the military but those same qualities made him a lot of enemies who plotted illegally to get him kicked from the administration.

Assad is not going to voluntarily remove himself from power as long as he has the support of Russia and Iran, even without I doubt he would since it's a life and death struggle for both sides of the sectarian divide. A NATO bombing campaign like that used against Gaddafi would be the worst possible thing you could do, no-fly-zones are always a lie for something more. Weakening Assad only makes the Islamists stronger, that's who will fill the vacuum. I do think you have to look at it from Assad's perspective, he's been fighting a total war against foreign terrorists for years now with massive defections with the threat of total annihilation of his people should he be forced from power. The Sunni 'rebels' don't want a peaceful multiethnic secular society, they're going to want revenge on the Alawites/Shia/Christians/whoever else that isn't a Sunni Arab.

Reckless regime change is exactly what created this war, more of it will just make things even worse so what is the solution? It can ONLY come with an agreement with Russia, unilaterally or even with the help of our 'allies' we are completely powerless. I think Assad should be allowed to stay and participate in elections monitored by the US/Russia/the UN, I don't think anybody really knows how much support Assad actually retains in the country. Maybe this is where the safe zones idea can work, allow people to vote without fear. The problem as already mentioned is that there is no comparable opposition leader, obviously Abu Bakr al-Bahgdadi wouldn't be on the ballot. The issue of the Kurds we don't hear as much about but that will pose a significant hurdle to peace considering to viewpoint of Turkey and the rest of Syria, how far is Turkey willing to go to prevent a Kurdish state?

ISIS has to be crushed first and foremost, the caliphate is what these terrorists all rally around around and not just in Syria. They have to be destroyed before any answer to the Assad question can be given. The only hope is a grand bargain with Russia.



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12 Apr 2017, 6:11 pm

Jacoby wrote:
Assad might be a bad guy but he's not ISIS and isn't a threat to the US so removing him from power is not our responsibility, if we really want Assad gone or even care about stopping this civil war then the best way to do that is by working with and improving our relations with the Russians.

I'm skeptical of evidence of this chemical attack but lets say Assad's army is responsible and that it wasn't some rogue commander or anything, that would imply that the Russians who oversaw the dismantling of Syria's chemical weapons either lied or were misled by the Syrians. The 'rebels' have sarin and there have been confirmed uses of it, they have used chlorine gas too so I am not ready to assign blame just because of a media campaign to get us involved in the conflict says that only Assad's forces could of carried it out which I do not believe is true.

How can Assad be removed without empowering Islamists? You can't have a Syria with a Sunni Islamist president bent on retribution against the Shia/Alawites, Druze, Christians, Kurds, etc. The Muslim Brotherhood has shown how untrustworthy they are no matter how moderate and business friendly they pretend to be. Removing Assad is not going to end the civil war, it's not going to heal the sectarian divide but rather just introduce more chaos and death into a situation that doesn't need any more of that. There aren't liberal or moderate fighters on the ground, there might be liberal or moderate Syrians but they've either left the country or are too insignificant to be any sort of force to be reckoned with. Mind you, Obama spent billions trying to train and arm these so called moderates and almost immediately upon entering Syria they either defected or were slaughtered by ISIS who happily absorbed some new US military equipment for their large collection.

A partition of the country I think in the end will probably be necessary but that's not a solution that the warring parties want to hear, it was already the de facto situation in Iraq and we can obviously see how the sectarian divide has effected that country. How do the Kurds go back to living under another's rule and give back their de facto independence in northern Syria? How do the Turks react to a potential Kurdish state, what are their interests in the conflict?

Short of a massive & decisive intervention and complete occupation by world powers for many years I don't think anything we can do will stop the killing or bridge the sectarian divide. Safe zones? I don't know exactly what that means, maybe occupation zones like those after WWII in Germany. Russia, America, and Turkey maybe? Anything less than that I think will fail, it will cost us more in money and lives than doing nothing at all. Creating a power vacuum is what created ISIS in the first place, removing Assad means absolutely nothing if there is no plan for the future of this country. Sykes-Picot still haunts us, these are just artificial lines in the sand drawn by people rather than real countries. Walrus brings up a good point about Assad's army because that situation played out in Iraq during the American occupation with the exclusion of all Saddam's soldiers and civil service which came back to bite us with ISIS who utilized Baathist leftovers in their rise to power in western Iraq.

The problem with wanting a political solution is that their is no real credible opposition in Syria at this point that the west would be willing to tolerate, even if Assad was willing to come to the negotiation table who is on the other side of it? Irrelevant western-backed groups who have no presence in Syria that claim to moderate, liberal, secular are not going to get a seat at the table.

It's too big and complicated of a problem for the US to solve by itself, the price we'd have to pay for peace in Syria is too much and anything less than solving the problem will just make things worse in the long run.

What's really frustrating are the saboteurs working against any possible rapprochement between the US and Russia, these people simply want war as most have no issue with having normal relations with Saudi Arabia or China. If we could just treat Russia and Putin with respect I think a lot of progress in our relationship can be made, there was an eagerness on Russia's part to extend the olive branch and to deny such an opportunity I think is criminal. The US and Russia being on good terms would make the entire planet safer.


What makes you think Assad isn't capable of using gas on his own people, especially when he has a record of killing vast numbers of civilians?
And why think Putin is our friend in Syria? Putin has been Assad's patron for years, as Russian leaders have had been with Assad's evil old man. That, and Putin had lied when he said Assad had had no chemical weapons.


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Jacoby
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12 Apr 2017, 6:33 pm

And the "opposition" in Syria hasn't killed vast amounts of civilians? You have to take in account who Assad is fighting against, ruthless al-Qaeda and ISIS militants with the backing of the Gulf Arabs and the West for years now. There is no moderate or secular fighting opposition force on the ground in Syria, Assad is far far more moderate and secular than ISIS you would agree right? The Muslim Brotherhood is as liberal as it gets with the opposition, a group that should be declared a terrorist organization in the US and already is considered one in quite a few countries. How do you fight a war against these people? There is no such thing as a clean war, humanitarian war is an oxymoron if there ever was one so to hold someone to a standard we don't hold ourselves to reeks hypocrisy and ulterior motives. People make this big deal about 'chemical weapons' but we kill more people in drone strikes, we sat around watched ISIS wage genocide but chemical weapons are the red line? Chemical weapons that the terrorist opposition has used as well, pretending like they're innocent victims is a dangerous game.

People can make these declarative statements about how Assad is a monster and that he has to go but unless you can come up with a workable solution to achieve that then you are just needlessly flapping your gums. Do you want to invade and occupy Syria? Would you prefer ISIS/other Islamic militants control of all of Syria rather than Assad? My ONLY interest is to eradicate the terrorists that pose a threat to the US, I have no interest in policing the world and intervening in every civil war.



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12 Apr 2017, 6:35 pm

I am wondering if all this tension is and the bombing raid is manufactured as part of a deal between Trump and Putin. The idea would be would be to squash the idea that Trump is Putin's lackey.


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12 Apr 2017, 6:42 pm

My 2¢ on the issue: it's looking increasingly like it was a fireworks show for President Xi's benefit. A show that says DJT is quite serious about demolishing the North Korean twit even if China wants no part of it. Chinese troops moved to the NK border, US Naval movements in the Pacific, murmurs about a joint operation... NK is the real story here. Sit tight for one of Trump's signature deals or an invasion, while Syria is ignored and the Putin-Assad supertwins are left relatively unmolested to do their thing. Assad ordering a gas attack at this late stage of the war (the war he was winning) is so unlikely even the most furious neocons in Washington would have doubts. It was a convenient happenstance and the Trump administration took advantage of it. But I could be wrong.


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12 Apr 2017, 7:03 pm

Jacoby wrote:
And the "opposition" in Syria hasn't killed vast amounts of civilians? You have to take in account who Assad is fighting against, ruthless al-Qaeda and ISIS militants with the backing of the Gulf Arabs and the West for years now. There is no moderate or secular fighting opposition force on the ground in Syria, Assad is far far more moderate and secular than ISIS you would agree right? The Muslim Brotherhood is as liberal as it gets with the opposition, a group that should be declared a terrorist organization in the US and already is considered one in quite a few countries. How do you fight a war against these people? There is no such thing as a clean war, humanitarian war is an oxymoron if there ever was one so to hold someone to a standard we don't hold ourselves to reeks hypocrisy and ulterior motives. People make this big deal about 'chemical weapons' but we kill more people in drone strikes, we sat around watched ISIS wage genocide but chemical weapons are the red line? Chemical weapons that the terrorist opposition has used as well, pretending like they're innocent victims is a dangerous game.

People can make these declarative statements about how Assad is a monster and that he has to go but unless you can come up with a workable solution to achieve that then you are just needlessly flapping your gums. Do you want to invade and occupy Syria? Would you prefer ISIS/other Islamic militants control of all of Syria rather than Assad? My ONLY interest is to eradicate the terrorists that pose a threat to the US, I have no interest in policing the world and intervening in every civil war.


Of course the Syrian opposition have killed loads of civilians. But we've made it a priority to get rid of them. So far, Assad has convinced everyone that he's indispensable, when in fact he should be put on that priority list, as well. Sure, we probably won't see democracy in Syria anytime soon. But who knows, maybe Assad has an officer under him who we could work with.
Bombing violent religious fanatics is one thing, killing families who just want to survive in peace is quite another.
Are you questioning if those civilians - including children - are really innocent civilians?


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12 Apr 2017, 7:16 pm

If Syria did use chemical weapons then I really doubt that Assad personally ordered it, it would probably be one of those officers in the military. It's better to stick with the devil you know than gamble with the one we don't, we were already fooled once by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

How can Assad be removed without empowering ISIS? Do you think removing Assad would end the civil war? I don't, if Assad falls then these rebels aren't stopping until there isn't an Alawite left in Syria. You have to come up with a concrete solution, not something that just feels good at the time without regards to the later consequence. Is Assad important enough that you would want the US to invade and occupy Syria?

Saddam was a monster too but we still shouldn't of invaded.



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12 Apr 2017, 11:06 pm

Jacoby wrote:
If Syria did use chemical weapons then I really doubt that Assad personally ordered it, it would probably be one of those officers in the military. It's better to stick with the devil you know than gamble with the one we don't, we were already fooled once by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

How can Assad be removed without empowering ISIS? Do you think removing Assad would end the civil war? I don't, if Assad falls then these rebels aren't stopping until there isn't an Alawite left in Syria. You have to come up with a concrete solution, not something that just feels good at the time without regards to the later consequence. Is Assad important enough that you would want the US to invade and occupy Syria?

Saddam was a monster too but we still shouldn't of invaded.


No, we shouldn't have invaded Iraq, and I'd be apprehensive about invading Syria, too.
But did Assad order the mass gassing? We know now that Saddam had personally ordered the gassing of the Kurds, so I have no doubt that Assad did, too.


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13 Apr 2017, 12:14 pm

With a vast invisible conspiracy at the core of any analysis comes unshakable convictions.


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13 Apr 2017, 2:45 pm

Jacoby wrote:
If there was to be an intervention to end this conflict it would take a grand bargain between the US/Russia/other world powers that would erase the fake borders of Sykes-Picot and have a post-WWII like occupation with deIslamification like deNazification. It's impossible, that would be seen as a war against Islam and a crusade and it sort of would be.

The problem is radical Jihadists don't just "give up" because they are militarily overwhelmed. You can't compare them to Nazi's. I'd expect the occupiers to sustain casualties continually through a continuous stream of suicide bombers and roadside bombs/ambushes. They hide within the civilian population so you can't do anything without slaughtering innocents. It would just be Iraq 00's all over again. I also doubt you'd be able to get Turkey or Saudi Arabia to occupy either. Turkey is already taking casualties in the Kurdish conflict.



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13 Apr 2017, 3:11 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Everyone used jihadis, I didn't say Assad was the only one.

They're opportunistic sellswords, but if there was anyone who helped them to grow the most in the Levant, it's definitely him.

Quote:
So Assad used Jihadis to fight against the US in Iraq and delay the inevitable attack on his country Boo?


Not only that, read again the sources I provided, he released islamists from prison in Syria to 'pollute' the opposition, and he succeeded at that; in order to become the better choice in the eyes of international community.

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And no, I don't think Assad is a hero, it's just his enemies are a million times worse.


Well, let's put it like this; living about 20+ years under his gang army's oppression, no amount of words you will say about Assad would convince me to favor him over any other.

I equate him to other lunatics like Isis but I refuse to say he's the better choice; not gonna happen, no matter how much you lecture me.


Assad is terrible, but there was peace in Syria for 10 years until 2011 when people started shooting at his unarmed forces.

There was a monitored and free election in 2014 and Assad won. I am not against the West supporting opposition in democratic ways, but not when the opposition now is Al Qaeda and ISIS.

He's the better choice for now and the country could have been stable by the end of year. The war hawks will not allow that though, as this has nothing to do with Assad. It's about destroying the country.


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13 Apr 2017, 3:14 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
I know enough about Syria to know that almost anyone in the West who thinks they understand what's going on is kidding themselves. Certainly I trust Boo more than anyone else on WP when it comes to Middle Eastern affairs.

My current tentative thoughts:

- Assad is better than ISIS, but there's a big difference between relatively good and actually good. Anyone who uses chemical weapons should not be leading a country.
- Assad vs ISIS (or "Assad vs Terrorists" if you want to include al-Nusra and similar) is an entirely false dichotomy.
- Liberal opposition groups are the least powerful of the forces, and often have conflicting interests, but might be able to form a stable coalition that will also need to include Alawites.
- Assad himself is only part of the problem. Get rid of him and someone similar will take his place. We need a liberal, democratic, secular state; Ba'athism might have a place but only in a coalition.
- Assad's army shouldn't be entirely dismantled but some generals may need to be removed if they seek to lead a military coup or intimidate the government.


Read my post above. I've been following Eva Barlett for a while now. She's an independent journalist who's been to Syria 6 times and is fluent in Arabic.


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13 Apr 2017, 3:18 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
And don't forget that Assad had a father who was a similar sort of dictator. Many of the traits of the father were passed along to the son.

"Assadism" can be said to be a political ideology.

To say that Assad is better than ISIS is like saying that Mussolini was better than Hitler.

At least Mussolini didn't kill millions of people with poison gas--though, if left to his own devices, who knows what he might have done!


You need to stop worrying about other countries when the US is the biggest terrorist state on earth. Not to mention that they support far worse regimes than Assad. The US has been supporting terrorists in Syria that chop of Priest's heads and eat people's hearts. The US is the only country to have used nukes. They've also used chemical weapons and wiped millions out across the globe.


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13 Apr 2017, 3:25 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
If the intelligence is such that it has prompted a complete and rapid u-turn from Trump's people then I think we have to assume that it is very good.

Of course it's important that whoever replaces Assad is better, but I don't think settling for one brutal tyrant is a good idea. Syria needs peace and democracy and Bashar is a barrier to both.

I do think it's important that Russia are on board with any solution. They mustn't feel like they are being undermined. But I don't think they want better relations and closer understanding with America or anything that "extending an olive branch" would suggest. They were simply interested in exploiting America at a moment of historic weakness.


Yeah, like the 'intelligence' that said Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, mobile weapon labs and that said Saddam had given anthrax to Al Qaeda? The 'intelligence' that said Gaddafi had rape dungeons? The 'intelligence' that said that Assad had used chemical weapons in 2013 on the day the UN inspectors were in town to investigate an chemical attack by rebels? What about when the war hawks got a 12 year old girl in front of Congress saying she'd witnessed Iraqi soldiers dragging babies out of incubators and leaving them to die on the cold floor, and then that girl turned out to be lying and to be the daughter of the Kuwaiti Ambassador to the US?

Do you ever learn????? The US 'evidence/intelligence' is "we said so", nothing more. Every war is based on outrageous lies.


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13 Apr 2017, 3:29 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
And the "opposition" in Syria hasn't killed vast amounts of civilians? You have to take in account who Assad is fighting against, ruthless al-Qaeda and ISIS militants with the backing of the Gulf Arabs and the West for years now. There is no moderate or secular fighting opposition force on the ground in Syria, Assad is far far more moderate and secular than ISIS you would agree right? The Muslim Brotherhood is as liberal as it gets with the opposition, a group that should be declared a terrorist organization in the US and already is considered one in quite a few countries. How do you fight a war against these people? There is no such thing as a clean war, humanitarian war is an oxymoron if there ever was one so to hold someone to a standard we don't hold ourselves to reeks hypocrisy and ulterior motives. People make this big deal about 'chemical weapons' but we kill more people in drone strikes, we sat around watched ISIS wage genocide but chemical weapons are the red line? Chemical weapons that the terrorist opposition has used as well, pretending like they're innocent victims is a dangerous game.

People can make these declarative statements about how Assad is a monster and that he has to go but unless you can come up with a workable solution to achieve that then you are just needlessly flapping your gums. Do you want to invade and occupy Syria? Would you prefer ISIS/other Islamic militants control of all of Syria rather than Assad? My ONLY interest is to eradicate the terrorists that pose a threat to the US, I have no interest in policing the world and intervening in every civil war.


Of course the Syrian opposition have killed loads of civilians. But we've made it a priority to get rid of them. So far, Assad has convinced everyone that he's indispensable, when in fact he should be put on that priority list, as well. Sure, we probably won't see democracy in Syria anytime soon. But who knows, maybe Assad has an officer under him who we could work with.
Bombing violent religious fanatics is one thing, killing families who just want to survive in peace is quite another.
Are you questioning if those civilians - including children - are really innocent civilians?


"Of course the Syrian opposition have killed loads of civilians. But we've made it a priority to get rid of them."

No you have not!! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! ! You've made it a priority to support them!! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! ! There's zero evidence that Assad carried out the chemical attack. It seems most likely that the chemicals were in the possession of the organ eaters and were bombed by the Syrian army.


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