The_Walrus wrote:
On referenda - I think they're a stupid idea and have done since 2011, acceptable for dealing with separatism as long as both sides have a clear plan but not suitable for day-to-day running of government, managing international relations, or even most constitutional reform. Something being popular does not make it right.
Hostilities do not always continue to rise, there are peaks and troughs. Right now the UK is very pro-immigration. We get foreign plagues all the time and they don't have lasting impacts on people's attitudes.
In the wider EU, politics cannot really be said to be "moving right" even though people have been predicting it for about a decade. It's a big continent. There are countries flirting with or outright embracing fascism (Hungary in particular should be kicked out of the EU; it won't be, because Poland and Austria will stand up for it) but there are also countries moving away from it or holding steady. In the UK I think it's fair to say Johnson has governed significantly to the right of Cameron and May on constitutional issues, but to the left of them on economic issues. His repeated commitment to an "Australian-style points-based immigration system based on skills and not nationality or race" is anathema to the hard right who want whites to be prioritised, and doesn't actually do anything to reduce immigration levels.
The hard-right of the Tory party isn't big enough to deny Johnson a majority. Yes there are some ideologues in there, but most of the Cornerstone MPs aren't particularly ideologically driven, they're basically united only by hatred of the EU. Try getting people like Blunt and Jenkin to agree with people like Bone and Chope on almost anything. Also worth noting that Johnson's inner circle have a lot of contempt for those people. Cummings in particular is vocal about it. Their influence is also largely diluted by the huge wave of Johnsonian loyalists who have just entered the House. It's entirely possible that something I've not foreseen will pop up, because god knows if the Tory right are good at anything it's finding pointless tripe to get upset about, but I don't think it should be an imminent concern for Johnson. Labour is, of course, greatly diminished, but I think Nandy has the ability to speak to a lot of the conservative left who held their noses to vote for Johnson to Get Brexit Done, while Starmer is capable of attracting the ordinary Britons who voted for Blair three times and Cameron twice, perhaps voting LD in 2005 and/or 2010.
The last point is pure wishful thinking. Globalist economics is lifting people out of poverty at an unprecedented rate and giving us all these great gizmos. People get far too hung up on Trump's election while ignoring everything else. As for the EU, if anything Brexit has strengthened the EU27. The Eurosceptic movements in those countries have shifted from supporting the end of the EU to only wanting to leave the Euro. The Brexit debacle is something that nobody is keen to repeat in a hurry.
Thank you for a very nice summary of fashionable opinion. We shall see how it goes.
The_Walrus wrote:
The last point is pure wishful thinking. Globalist economics is lifting people out of poverty at an unprecedented rate and giving us all these great gizmos.
At what cost to our own countries and peoples? You know my international trade thread is just waiting there... for someone to take notice. I had you in mind, I did promise last year to debate free trade with you.
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