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[ RANT ] Trump Versus SARS-CoViD-19.

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Fnord
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18 Mar 2020, 4:58 pm

Just look at all of the exit polls that predicted Hillary Clinton as the winner in 2016.


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The_Walrus
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18 Mar 2020, 5:38 pm

Fnord wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
Fnord wrote:
It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the (con-) man behind the curtain.
Have they? His approval rating hasn't budged.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/
FYI: Five-Thirty-Eight is owned by the ABC network, which is owned by Disney, which also owns Fox News.

Thus -- being owned by a conservative, Right-leaning corporation -- it is only natural that Five-Thirty-Eight would present 'data' that favors conservative, right-leaning politicians and their policies.

Nonsense. FiveThirtyEight have earned their reputation through rigorous empiricism, scrupulous analysis, and determined objectivity. They're also completely transparent - you can see for yourself the polls they have included and their evaluation of the reliability, methodological rigour, and partisan skew of the pollster.

They first came to fame in 2008 when they were accused of being too pro-Obama. Their predictions were correct for 49 out of 50 states.

In 2012, they predicted a very comfortable win for Obama in the electoral college. They were widely ridiculed because the polls suggested Obama and Romney had very similar levels of support. They got all 50 states correct.

In 2016, they were accused of being pro-Trump, because while everyone else said that Clinton was guaranteed to win (e.g. NYT gave her a 99% chance), they only gave her a two in three chance.

Nate Silver, their founder, literally wrote the book on the conditions in which it is possible to make accurate predictions, and how to make them.

If you care about the truth then you should read FiveThirtyEight.



Fnord
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18 Mar 2020, 5:42 pm

Okay, Walrus. You talked me into it. I'll read it, but with every bit of skepticism I reserve for news sites like Alternet, CNN, and Fox News.


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Meistersinger
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18 Mar 2020, 8:34 pm

Fnord wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
Fnord wrote:
It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the (con-) man behind the curtain.
Have they? His approval rating hasn't budged.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/
FYI: Five-Thirty-Eight is owned by the ABC network, which is owned by Disney, which also owns Fox News.

Thus -- being owned by a conservative, Right-leaning corporation -- it is only natural that Five-Thirty-Eight would present 'data' that favors conservative, right-leaning politicians and their policies.


Hate to break it to you, but Dizney does not own Fox News. Fox News is still owned and operated by News Corp and Rupert Murdoch. Dizney only bought the entertainment divisions of Fox.

(Frankly, I was never impressed with ABC’s (NOT the Australian Broadcasting Commission) news gathering organization. ABC’s (NOT the Australian Broadcasting Commission) standards have always left me with the impression that they were the broadcast version of the New York Daily News, the New York Post, the (now-defunct) Baltimore News American, and the Chicago Sun Times, with a good dose of the National Enquirer thrown in for good measure).



funeralxempire
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19 Mar 2020, 2:51 am

Fnord wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
Fnord wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
... unless you've got better polling to support your position I'm going to remain unconvinced.
As will I. Nothing against you; that's just the way I am.
You haven't provided any polling whatsoever, I have. That was my point.
Yes, and your point has been taken. I never put much stock in polls, though; and my contempt for Mr. Trump runs too deep to excise. While his 'numbers' may be up, none of them came from me.

The last time a pollster called me, I filled her ear with so much vitriol regarding our president that I'm sure my phone number is on a "Do Not Call" list somewhere.

:wink: (And maybe my personal data is on a "First Round Up" list somewhere else.)


I still dislike him, I find him utterly contemptible, incompetent and believe he's likely becoming senile.
I just don't let my opinion spoil my read of the political landscape so to speak. His cult seems pretty unshakable, I'm sure they all have their limits, but like most other cults it uses peer pressure to keep everyone in line, no one wants to be the first to speak out and be disowned by the rest of the cult.

Why yell at the poor call centre employee? She's getting minimum wage with no benefits to ask people those questions, why make her day worse?


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Gromit
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26 Mar 2020, 9:07 am

funeralxempire wrote:
I still dislike him, I find him utterly contemptible, incompetent and believe he's likely becoming senile.
I just don't let my opinion spoil my read of the political landscape so to speak. His cult seems pretty unshakable,

Maybe this can help to detach a few people:



Fnord
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26 Mar 2020, 9:18 am

funeralxempire wrote:
Fnord wrote:
...The last time a pollster called me, I filled her ear with so much vitriol regarding our president that I'm sure my phone number is on a "Do Not Call" list somewhere.(And maybe my personal data is on a "First Round Up" list somewhere else.)[/color]
... Why yell at the poor call centre employee? She's getting minimum wage with no benefits to ask people those questions, why make her day worse?
There was no 'yelling', per se. There was only a long, detailed listing of his "crimes against humanity" and my personal doubts regarding his hygiene, mental health, education, and overall fitness to hold a public office, that's all.

But certainly no 'yelling'.


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