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Antrax
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26 Sep 2020, 6:36 pm

shlaifu wrote:
magz wrote:
Antrax wrote:
First of all thanks for asking the relevant question. I believe in climate change, I don't believe in climate doom based on a few points:

Timescale of climate change: We warm on average ~0.1 C per decade. Sea level rise is ~1 inch per decade. This is exceptionally fast on a geologic timescale but very slow on a human timescale.

Timescale of human innovation: In 70 years we went from unable to fly to landing on the moon. In a different 70 years the computing power that used to take an entire building of vacuum tubes can later be fit on a single computer chip.

In 70 years we may be ~0.7C warmer, and our sea levels may be ~7 inches higher, but I expect our ability to combat those challenges will be greatly improved.

From a pragmatic standpoint there's not really another option than trust we can innovate our way past these challenges. People advocating for major cuts in carbon output are generally unaware of the massive technological challenges in achieving that (its not nearly as simple as just build solar panels/wind mills and drive electric cars). People advocating for minor measures (like the Paris accords), by the climate models achieve almost nothing over a timescale of 70 years.

I'm certain that technological progress make human adaptability amazing but I'm more worried for the rest of the nature.


humans will try to adapt, certainly. Farmers in drought-prone areas will move to cities to find work, there will be famines and civil wars and refugees trying to move away from the equator ... oh, right, that's already happening.
There will be border walls and people drowning in the mediterranean or the British channel. there will be xenophobic governments, and in the meantime, the northern countries have to realize they can't keep farming like they are used to because of droughts and unusual and unpredictable weather.
and once parts of the world reach a wetbulb temperature of 40°, those parts will become inaccessible and uninhabitable.
insects will vanish. birds will vanish.
sea life will vanish. oh wait: all this is already happening, except oceanic animals are still around for a bit because ocean acidification is a bit slower.

yeah, humans will adapt, but it won't be pretty. "doom" is a question of definition. end of civilization as we not, yes.


on the upside: there will be a lot of jobs in the remaining agricultural sector, because someone has to replace pollinating insect.


I'm considerably more bullish on the respective timelines of human adaptation versus climate effect manifestation than you.

Again there really isn't an alternative. Net zero carbon is a fantasy with today's technology. A massive mobilization will only end in broken promises with a backlash that will make coronavirus restrictions backlash look tame.


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cyberdad
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26 Sep 2020, 8:32 pm

Almost every multi-millionaire has purchased a house on Martha's Vinyard. It's a status symbol. I am sure Obama will offload it before the sea water starts lapping his letterbox. :lol:



magz
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27 Sep 2020, 4:54 am

Knowing my villa will be underwater 5000 years from now would not discourage me from purchasing it.

Investment in development of energy-efficient technologies and water-efficient farming are what I believe should be done - and it is done in a lot of places worldwide.


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cyberdad
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27 Sep 2020, 5:07 am

I would waterproof my house and convert it to like an underwater viewing...would be so cool



magz
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27 Sep 2020, 5:10 am

cyberdad wrote:
I would waterproof my house and convert it to like an underwater viewing...would be so cool

Yeah, but waiting these 1000-10000 years may be rather boring.


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Edna3362
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27 Sep 2020, 5:38 am

I'll 'believe' it when this country's capital literally sinks in the next 10-100 years. :lol: Except, not really believe. I see it for what it is than believe whichever it meant.

Which is already physically at odds to begin with -- sinking by 4cm to 10cm per year, for the last 60 or so years now.


But then this country is already classified as one of the most vulnerable places.

I even personally seen the climate change effects with my relatively short years of life and that's just one area, and quite far from nature.


And yet, and yet, I'm far from panicking. :twisted: Nor felt doomed because of climate my whole life.

Why??
The fluctuations and extreme changes are so normal, the norm is simply adapt and survive out of it no matter how under equipped.

Yes, that includes yearly shortages, loss of livelihood, destruction of infrastructures, deaths -- all of them brushed off as 'normal'.


If anything else...
I'm rather privileged to observe these things close up, and live in it.


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Noca
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29 Sep 2020, 10:05 pm

Yes, the future is bleak even if we stopped 100% of carbon emissions tomorrow the climate change that has already happened is permanent. Society will peak likely in the next 20 years(likely a lot sooner) and then it is only downhill from there on out. Even though I live in one of the most climate-resilient parts of the Earth with an unlimited supply of freshwater, no real risk of forest fires, no flooding, far above sea level, virtually no tornadoes, no hurricanes, the world is all interconnected. People fleeing climate change from all over the world will no doubt end up here and the housing supply which is already in severe shortage is as good now as it will ever be. The government that I rely on will be broke from dealing with all the impacts of climate change across the country.



naturalplastic
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29 Sep 2020, 10:37 pm

We have no choice but to do this:



cyberdad
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30 Sep 2020, 1:36 am

Yay! so much to look forward to after COVID :roll:



magz
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30 Sep 2020, 2:42 am

Personally, I'm reatively optimistic because I live in a very resilient and adaptive culture.
I sometimes think, Polish culture is better adapted to surviving catastrophes than to live in stable peace and prosperity :lol:


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cyberdad
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30 Sep 2020, 3:56 am

magz wrote:
Personally, I'm reatively optimistic because I live in a very resilient and adaptive culture.
I sometimes think, Polish culture is better adapted to surviving catastrophes than to live in stable peace and prosperity :lol:


You guys bore the brunt of the nazis so yeah, 10/10 for resilience



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30 Sep 2020, 4:08 am

Probably, I don't believe humanity will do anything substantial until it's too late because that's just how we roll.


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03 Oct 2020, 8:59 am

I have no idea who or what to believe when it comes to climate change anymore.

The issue is that with the likes of extinction rebellion, if you were to take 1000 members you will soon realise a serious mismatch with what they say and what they do.

Media studies, artists, journalists, carers, coffee shop workers, humanity students, waitresses, musicians and most living in a metropolitan area in a little bubble world ........these are the types of people who want to start the green revolution and lecture us on climate change but they're about as useful as a chocolate teapot at making a wind turbine and know sweet all about the climate.

I might actually listen to them if they decided to learn how to weld, fabricate, engineer, and lay some concrete foundations but I feel I will be waiting a long time.

They can sure talk the talk but they never walk the walk. They seem intent on letting others come up with the solutions and build their dream society for them. Hypocrisy if I've ever seen it.



magz
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03 Oct 2020, 9:18 am

I have less problems with who to trust, as I personally know a couple of atmosphere researchers, so my "scientists say" does not go through a layer of journalists who typically have no idea what they're talking about.


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Nades
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03 Oct 2020, 10:13 am

magz wrote:
I have less problems with who to trust, as I personally know a couple of atmosphere researchers, so my "scientists say" does not go through a layer of journalists who typically have no idea what they're talking about.


I wish I could have unbiased info but the chances are any info I get has been through so many people before it reaches me it's like Chinese whispers.

When you have people like this who are totally out of their depth when it comes to actually tackling climate change and blinkered to the outside world beyond cities how credible are they?

https://www.tatler.com/article/extinction-rebellion-protestors-mostly-middle-class-southerners-privileged-climate-activist-movement

What are a group of people like this REALLY going to do to actually help with the green revolution they protest so much about? This is the question I ask myself all the time. If they're not interested in getting their hands dirty to save the planet then they have no right to protest as far as I'm concerned. They are just all a bunch of slacktivists.



magz
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03 Oct 2020, 10:23 am

From atmosphere researchers, I know what's going on (and how much we really know and how much we really don't know) about the climate change itself - but not with all the political aspects of possible reactions to it.

My own bid is investment in energy-efficient technologies, water-efficient farming, resilience and adaptiveness.


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