magz wrote:
Antrax wrote:
First of all thanks for asking the relevant question. I believe in climate change, I don't believe in climate doom based on a few points:
Timescale of climate change: We warm on average ~0.1 C per decade. Sea level rise is ~1 inch per decade. This is exceptionally fast on a geologic timescale but very slow on a human timescale.
Timescale of human innovation: In 70 years we went from unable to fly to landing on the moon. In a different 70 years the computing power that used to take an entire building of vacuum tubes can later be fit on a single computer chip.
In 70 years we may be ~0.7C warmer, and our sea levels may be ~7 inches higher, but I expect our ability to combat those challenges will be greatly improved.
From a pragmatic standpoint there's not really another option than trust we can innovate our way past these challenges. People advocating for major cuts in carbon output are generally unaware of the massive technological challenges in achieving that (its not nearly as simple as just build solar panels/wind mills and drive electric cars). People advocating for minor measures (like the Paris accords), by the climate models achieve almost nothing over a timescale of 70 years.
I'm certain that technological progress make human adaptability amazing but I'm more worried for the rest of the nature.
humans will try to adapt, certainly. Farmers in drought-prone areas will move to cities to find work, there will be famines and civil wars and refugees trying to move away from the equator ... oh, right, that's already happening.
There will be border walls and people drowning in the mediterranean or the British channel. there will be xenophobic governments, and in the meantime, the northern countries have to realize they can't keep farming like they are used to because of droughts and unusual and unpredictable weather.
and once parts of the world reach a wetbulb temperature of 40°, those parts will become inaccessible and uninhabitable.
insects will vanish. birds will vanish.
sea life will vanish. oh wait: all this is already happening, except oceanic animals are still around for a bit because ocean acidification is a bit slower.
yeah, humans will adapt, but it won't be pretty. "doom" is a question of definition. end of civilization as we not, yes.
on the upside: there will be a lot of jobs in the remaining agricultural sector, because someone has to replace pollinating insect.
I'm considerably more bullish on the respective timelines of human adaptation versus climate effect manifestation than you.
Again there really isn't an alternative. Net zero carbon is a fantasy with today's technology. A massive mobilization will only end in broken promises with a backlash that will make coronavirus restrictions backlash look tame.