Understanding Vladimir Putin

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 1:59 pm

Pepe wrote:

N.B.
NATO is a *defensive* alliance.

Nato bombed Chinese deliberately

The night the US bombed a Chinese embassy

Quote:

The US and Nato were already facing scrutiny over mounting civilian casualties in a bombing campaign conducted without UN authorisation and fiercely opposed by China and Russia. They had now attacked a symbol of Chinese sovereignty in the heart of the Balkans.

United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade

Quote:

On May 7, 1999, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia (Operation Allied Force), five U.S. Joint Direct Attack Munition guided bombs hit the People's Republic of China embassy in the Belgrade district of New Belgrade, killing three Chinese state media journalists and outraging the Chinese public.[2] According to the U.S. government, the intention had been to bomb the nearby Yugoslav Federal Directorate for Supply and Procurement (FDSP). President Bill Clinton apologized for the bombing, stating it was an accident.[3][4][5] Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director George Tenet testified before a congressional committee that the bombing was the only one in the campaign organized and directed by his agency,[6] and that the CIA had identified the wrong coordinates for a Yugoslav military target on the same street.[7] The Chinese government issued a statement on the day of the bombing, stating that it was a "barbarian act".[8]

NATO bombing of Yugoslavia

Quote:

NATO launched its campaign without the UN's approval, stating that it was a humanitarian intervention. The UN Charter prohibits the use of force except in the case of a decision by the Security Council under Chapter VII, or self-defence against an armed attack – neither of which were present in this case.[34]

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 2:04 pm

magz wrote:

The only element of truth in the OP is that "good Russia, bad Putin" is indeed a simplification that goes dangerously too far.

This applies to all countries outside the club. Not even just permanent members.
Wrong and dangerous. Dangerous to both parties.

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magz
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25 May 2022, 2:08 pm

"The club"?

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 2:10 pm

Countries that have a voice in the international media.

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magz
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25 May 2022, 2:13 pm

I don't really get what you mean but my country - both the government and regular people - are working pretty hard to be heard internationally, especially now.

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 2:15 pm

Twitter has banned hundreds of thousands of Chinese accounts since 2019 because their views don’t seem to match “international perceptions,” so they must be the CCP’s propaganda machine.

Nor have we heard the opinions of citizens of countries "plundered by neocolonialism".
Or the people of other dictatorships. Whether or not this form of dictatorship has gained international attention.

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Last edited by SkinnedWolf on 25 May 2022, 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

magz
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25 May 2022, 2:16 pm

I've seen propaganda machines. They are real. A bug in their script made one of them very easy to spot here on WP.
And they are dangerous.

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 2:20 pm

I am aware of the existence of propaganda machines, and I have also been exposed to them. Although I'm not sure if they exist on international platforms in the form of "CCP propaganda machines".
But I also got in touch with real Chinese people who have been banned from their accounts.

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magz
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25 May 2022, 2:22 pm

Let's make one thing straight: I never really liked f-book and t-ter. They have a record of immoral actions even outside of international policies.

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magz
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25 May 2022, 2:56 pm

But that wasn't my point when I said that "good Russia bad Putin" is a dangerous oversimplification. I know Russia from a lot closer perspective than I know China. Like, I have Russian family roots. I visited Russia and talked to random people there. I did drink with random Russians on a train.

There are plenty of really nice people but nationalist and imperialist attitudes are really strong there - and their decision-making system does not weed out outlandishly destructive ideas if a leader happens to have some.
Which is happening right now. And which can happen again. And again. 500 years of it so far.

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 3:04 pm

Hmm...that's actually part of what I mean too.

For example, as shown in a video I've already posted. A part of the Chinese, especially the older ones, do have quite a passion for communism. This sometimes extends to the "Liberation cause".
A China that democratizes now may take military action against Taiwan the next day, but I believe the current regime will not. Or at least not the next day.

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magz
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25 May 2022, 3:10 pm

SkinnedWolf wrote:

I don't really know China enough to have a strong opinion on it.
So far, I interpreted Chinese leaders as consistently pragmatic - which was good in a way, as it makes them predictable.
But the dynamic zero policy breaks out of this pattern. It's more totalitarian than pragmatic. Or maybe I'm just starting to be familiar with Chinese internal policies?

I don't think China would do something spectacularily sinister on the international scene now but I don't know where you end up in 10 years. Totalitarianism is always dangerous. For everyone. Usually more for those inside than for those outside.

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 3:26 pm

magz wrote:

Dynamic Zero gained huge support early on. This even saw patriotism run high during the first half of 2020 and 2021. Chinese people's demands for life safety are far higher than their demands for freedom.
The widespread dissatisfaction with it is something that only started this year.

The problem with this is that it remains pragmatic for the policymaker, Xi himself. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in the second half of this year, and Xi has revised his re-election rules. It can be assumed that he will look forward to this re-election and eliminate political influence before then.
After this change has stabilized, another tipping point for possible policy changes.

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Last edited by SkinnedWolf on 25 May 2022, 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

magz
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25 May 2022, 3:35 pm

In Poland, people also were readily self isolating in 2020, even without such policies.
But over time, other needs started to take over while the covid threat was greatly reduced by vaccines.

SkinnedWolf wrote:

The problem with this is that it remains pragmatic for the policymaker, Xi himself.

And that's what I find dangerous...

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SkinnedWolf
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25 May 2022, 3:43 pm

magz wrote:

In Poland, people also were readily self isolating in 2020, even without such policies.

There are interesting cultural differences here. If this were in China, many people would self-isolate and would like the government to enforce quarantine for those at risk as well.
"Why doesn't the government manage this?" is a frequent voice here, and, at some point, a means of suppressing heresy. Pretty sinister part of our culture.

magz wrote:

And that's what I find dangerous...

same feeling. But still needs to be observed.
Due to some factors you can guess, I don't have the experience of fully discussing this kind of issue that is directed towards a specific individual. So I can't have a valid opinion.

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cyberdad
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25 May 2022, 4:42 pm

magz wrote:

But that wasn't my point when I said that "good Russia bad Putin" is a dangerous oversimplification..

Statesmanship requires some nuance but there are of course dangers. I was watching another documentary, this time about Moldova. The journalist is giving the viewer the impression that the country is on high alert that Putin will invade their country next and re-establish the Soviet union.

Is it possible that assuming Putin wants the old Soviet union back is an oversimplification as well? Perhaps he is the paranoid type who is specifically paranoid about NATO. He is a "macho man" who wants to flex his muscles. Maybe he also doesn't like former allies (Ukraine?) turning anti-Russian? he certainly likes having pro-Russian leaders as his neighbors.

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